China is #1 grain producer with U.S. at #4 and interestingly Ukraine still at #8 while fighting a war. Russia is #3 so losing the Ukraine production after end of Cold War reign had to hurt their logistics. I have found it interesting Russia has not attacked the wheat planting, harvesting or shipping and let them go on farming as usual. Majority of Ukraine wheat goes to Africa and China.
China is poised to go into a big financial crash on the level of our pre WW 2 Great Depression. They overbuilt infrastructure for international investing in factories that hasn't come. They have international airports with only two or three flights per day, roads/bridges going to nowhere and electric production facilities that are much greater than their need. Combine that with huge spending on defense and now having bank failures they are one of few countries seeing deflation.
Most people think prices going down is a good thing but when cost of property, buildings and even crops go down it is a bad sign. Inflation that is balanced by a GNP that is a bit more than your rate of inflation is sign of healthy economy. Prices rising in control (not the almost hiper-inflation we have in U.S. now) with wages and production rising a bit faster than prices is how a healthy economy is judged. Now Russia says they are going to start treating all ships no matter county they are flagged as enemies.
Russia says anyone bringing supplies in or products out of Ukraine now is going to be a defacto "enemy and collaborator" saying this years Ukraine grain harvest is not leaving the ports or it will be sank. If Ukraine's wheat does not get to Africa and China it could drive grain prices up ten times or more. So now we have to see what Russia does after the harvest that should be starting in a few weeks.
I am noticing some price cuts on some items and more sales than since before covid. Placed one e-shopping order this week and on items purchased was 42% below "daily low prices". Last week we placed two big orders that after store sales, e-coupons, multi-item discounts, print coupons and pick-click discount (still don't understand why they give me $7 to $20 off to let their employees select my items and load in vehicle at back door) we got 55% of the daily low prices.
Wife's Kashi Cereal has gone up to $5.89 per box and buying five boxes at a time (using all digital and print coupons) getting it for $2.99 per box. My organic blueberry shredded wheat is $4.49 daily price but paying $1.99. Biggest package of Brawny select-a-size paper towels are $18.99 daily price. Now with all sales, coupons and "buy five save $5" are $10.99 and last week if bought five got one free. We loaded up so much last week had to defrost downstairs freezers and organize for maximum storage. About to buy another chest freezer to hoard sale items.
Almond milk daily price on name brand and store brand has gone up again but one of three brands is on sale every week. Last week was buying the $3.99 per carton Silk Milk for $1.49 and this week it's $2.99 with store brand down from $2.56 to $1.99. I have prices going back on spreadsheets for over a decade. It got bad on paper items during covid peak then food end of 2021 into 2022 but 2023 seeing so many sales hoarders that buy bulk when cheap can make out well.
End of every year I calculate to the penny what we saved including the discounts on fuel. Kroger gives you a dime per gallon off for every $100 you spend on food. They give a 4x fuel point bonus on gift cards. Have gift cards for Walmart, Red Lobster, Applebee's and couple dozen other national chains. They generally give the 4x bonus one or two weeks per month. If buy a $100 Kroger gift card that's 400 fuel points then when spend it on groceries get another hundred for 50 cents per gallon off fuel. We will take two trucks at a time based on which need most fuel and get $1 gallon discount because of getting 5 fuel points for every dollar instead of one.
Place an order at Walmart Marketplace use a gift card purchased at Kroger and still getting four fuel points per dollar spent. It's just half way into 2023 but using my system for groceries normal year has always been 32% to 42% off daily prices. Thus far we are 52% off daily price this year and hoarding. Hearing the info about bread and flour price potential major upswing if the Ukraine crop does not get out found best price I could and have two fifty pound bags and two twenty-five pound bags to pick up next week. (25s are self rising) and have ordered proper storage containers, more vacuum sealer bags plus for first time have a tall bottle (120 cu/ft) of nitrogen in addition to refill of our short bottle (80 cu/ft) coming from Airgas. Going to purge some big plastic locking waterproof containers like have done with military metal cans then use RTV sealant on gasket to double down on flour.
The 150 pounds is just a start as will buy more but like to get this first order broken down (3, 5 and 8 pound bags) vacuum sealed then packed in big container purged with nitrogen. If nitrogen leaks then vacuum sealed bags are good for long term. If vacuum seal of bags leaks then living in a nitrogen environment instead of atmosphere packed when 90% humidity will greatly extend lifespan from contaminants. Way we pack it if it had some hint of mold/mildew/etc it's put away in manner whatever contaminant it's picked up in original packaging and shipment is purged and most molds and such will die if don't have any oxygen and water to keep it alive and spreading.
Today's order had twenty gallons of the non refrigerated two year shelf life almond milk. Last week picked up ten gallons per order thinking had enough but if bread price goes up (already gone from 99¢ to $1.99 per loaf of store brand whole wheat) to $5 or even $10 per loaf need enough flour and almond milk stockpiled to make our own. If wheat goes loopy I can make bread or cook biscuits for a decade or more. Last Sunday wife baked biscuits using flour that was over six years old and almond milk over three years old and were perfect.
It's almost crazy buying more but I saw RUAG Swiss made 63 grain SS109 Green Tip on July 4th sale in 30 round boxes packed in 600 round cans for 42¢ per round and Swiss RUAG 55 grain M193 in 600 round cans for 38¢ per round so brought in 1,200 more rounds of 5.56. Have a thing for Swiss RUAG same as Norwegian Nammo/Raufoss. Recently saw some 623 grain Mk211 Mod 0 Raufoss (new projectiles not pulls and not fakes) at fair price along with Nammo Raufoss 300 grain 338 with 50 per customer limit. Both the Nammo products were sold as remanufactured loaded ammo but were new Lapua cases on the 338 and new Lake City cases for the 50 BMG loaded in USA. Vendor had RUAG Swiss P 263 grain 338 AP and 196 grain Swiss P 7.62×51 as well with 100 count on each limit. Ordered my limit on credit card in my name shipped to work and wife bought her limit shipped to the house.
Watching trends in food and while prices continue to go up more sales of greater value are appearing much more often. Buying food as cheap as the daily price was pre-covid watching five vendors and jumping on sales. Even holding rain checks waiting on products from some sales two weeks ago to come in stock and will buy at the sale price but have a limit of ten units per item. Watching 5.56 and 9mm drop, while shoot mostly handloads in 5.56 and only handloads in 9mm stockpiling more factory and specialty flavors as price drops to either resale when next panic hits or loan to the Boogeyman one round at a time. Powder is dropping, primers are in stock and saw my first discount on 5,000 count box over July 4th sales.
Thus more food and more ammo is coming in the door. Sold a fair amount of armor at strong prices to fund most of it plus make more storage room. Amazing what some armor items are bringing so going to sell more since have so much it's going to lose value as it becomes old technology to buy fresher armor in lower quantities and more food and ammo. Buying that twenty foot storage container after Obama brought all the troops home from the sandpit has taken a long time to slowly get rid of without selling too cheap. Over 500 USGI kits, same in "contractor" kits plus guy it came from had thousands of overt police surplus kits like new and still have a couple hundred to sell.
Like silver and gold, learned to flip and not hoard it all. Some of my four channel seismic sensors for use around FOBs paid under $100 for are selling for $900 now. Just got another full kit from Afgan surplus so may begin selling the older single channel radio monitored and four channel wired panels to keep cash coming and upgrading perimeter security technology. Bottom line we will be eating as long as we can fight off the zombie hoards. Even if they show up in light armor the extra Raufoss will make a mess of most anything used to carry troops. If they show up in an Abrams can lob shells at us from other side of town or task a missile from a drone.
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