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Old September 06, 2019, 17:36   #901
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Got this in today. Sandia report on EMP. Seems Sandia agrees with DOD on EMP and at odds with the other DOE labs and EPRI.
https://energyworkshops.sandia.gov/w...re_Lavrova.pdf
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Old September 07, 2019, 05:25   #902
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Got this in today. Sandia report on EMP. Seems Sandia agrees with DOD on EMP and at odds with the other DOE labs and EPRI.
https://energyworkshops.sandia.gov/w...re_Lavrova.pdf
DOE agreeing that EMP is anything more than an excuse to get study money is absolutely remarkable!
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Old September 07, 2019, 08:08   #903
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I lost my original watch band,,,,when I lost the end of my right little finger and the pistol grip on my M16.

However,,,,Tha watch and finger,,,well,,,most of it,,, still work.
I'm sensing an interesting camp fire story.
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Old September 07, 2019, 10:04   #904
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I was going to say that about DOE but thought I'd be polite. DOE is one of those federal programs that needs to go away. As a former director of LLL told me, it's white man welfare. Remember, DOE was formed to solve the energy crisis in the late 70s. Bring the AEC back and send the rest packing. When you look at IP lawsuits DOE is #2 (NASA #1).
OK, off the soapbox and back to regular programing.
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Old September 07, 2019, 10:11   #905
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Why not just truck a small nuke into a large city. Sure, you'll have a ground burst that'll limit its effectiveness a great deal but so what? The political reaction is what an enemy would want.

It would be incredibly difficult to find out who did it. Iran or North Korea would be blamed but there would be a long investigation that could take years. Retaliation would be almost undoable by that time.

Such an event would destroy the US economically and turn the government completely totalitarian.
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Old September 07, 2019, 12:18   #906
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ID would be fairly straight forward using isotopic anaylsis. The submarine off Hawaii tells an interesting tale of using isotopes to throw off who built what but that requires some major technology games that NK or Iran doesn't have. An EMP burst would be difficult to tell who. A lunach from say the Gulf of Mexico or the Pacific off Mexico would basicly come in undetected.
If you look at WMDs that can disrupt the US it is the usual NBC. Nuclear is obvious but costs a lot and involves only certain players, Bio is cheaper and can be used different ways to impact the economy and Chem is cheapest and the new agents are extremely effective area denial weapons ( Wall Street, Commodity exchange, etc.).
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Old September 07, 2019, 18:23   #907
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Naw,,,,just goes to prove,,,keep ya hands away from flying high speed shiny little objects.


Good friend of mine got shot four times in his career,,,,each time,,dead off in his ass!

"Things""" can always be worst!!!!
It seems dot mil has been good to you.
Even so, a hearty "thanks for your service" to you and the other vets and active duty guys here.

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Old September 09, 2019, 19:14   #908
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Saw this today.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt...c-pulse-attack
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Old September 15, 2019, 12:12   #909
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Israeli view of a nuclear Iran. Interesting he mentions missing nukes.
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-...uclear-strike/
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Old September 15, 2019, 13:51   #910
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Appears so. From the taskforce:
Analysis on this topic from Dr. Pry: My guess is that most of the 51 missing nuclear weapons is a reference to the missing “suitcase nukes” about which Russian General Aleksandr Lebed warned Congress and the world in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee. Lebed was labeled a traitor by many in Russia for his disclosure, and died in an “accidental” helicopter crash in Siberia. Reza Kahlili also reported on Iran having tactical nuclear weapons from Russia, including at least one neutron artillery shell, that could be used for an enhanced-EMP attack. Iran no longer needs anyone’s missing nukes, as they can build their own, and probably already have.
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Old September 15, 2019, 15:23   #911
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Yep, the only thing good about them is the fuel and probably more importantly is the actual engineering of a small device.
This series is a good tutorial on building devices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWWjbnAVFKA
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Old September 21, 2019, 11:33   #912
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Trailer to a film coming out.
https://theblackskyevent.com/
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Old September 21, 2019, 15:40   #913
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Trailer to a film coming out.
https://theblackskyevent.com/
Looking forward to this!
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Old September 21, 2019, 20:58   #914
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Damn,,,,I got the wood pile,,,if you got some rope and fuel oil!!!!!


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I'd suspect,,,,those old Russian ones have degraded by now,,,,,by all accounts,,these things are sensitive,,,the arming/triggering,wiring, etc goes bad pretty quickly.
That can be updated.
Just don't get a Windows or Android based one.
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Old September 21, 2019, 23:33   #915
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The 40 yr old suitcase ones????

Could even Russia update that old stuff now???
If you believe some American intelligence agencies and a few of the less looney conspiracy theorists Russian Suitcase Nukes are already on our soil smuggled in long ago. Will they still go bang if the button is pushed, maybe not but the material inside would make a good traditional explosives dispersed dirty bomb. Make the financial district of NYC unihanibital for a thousand years or so (I believe we would have worst cleaned up and Wall Street back up at 90% inside a year) would be a wake up call but 9/11 proves most Americans have short memories that as long as college football, the World Series and Superbowl go on along with much beer drinking we will tolerate most anything.

If nothing else with all the minimal background checks, personal interviews combined with familial immigration policy (let one in then he sponsors his entire family) Muslim immigration under the Nobama administration believe there could be enough terror cells on U.S. soil to repeat 9/11 by a factor of twenty to fifty times. Just an opinion, like @$$holes, we all have one.

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A total of 38,901 Muslim refugees entered the U.S. in fiscal year 2016, making up almost half (46%) of the nearly 85,000 refugees who entered the country in that period, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from the State Department’s*Refugee Processing Center. That means the U.S. has admitted the highest number of Muslim refugees of any year since data on self-reported religious affiliations first became publicly available in 2002.

Just two countries – Syria (12,486) and Somalia (9,012) – were the source of more than half of fiscal 2016’s Muslim refugees. The rest are from Iraq (7,853), Burma (Myanmar) (3,145), Afghanistan (2,664) and other countries (3,741).
20,000 Syrians and Somalis in a single year really makes me feel safe. During Nobama administration we had roughly 2.5 million immigrants we know of from majority middle eastern Muslim nations which was a 30% increase annually. Up about 46% annually over a million from sub-Sahara African nations then add in the number of Muslims from Southeastern Asian countries like Pakistan during the Nobama administration figures say were likely as many Muslims introduced into our country as all other countries combined with a sharp decline from Mexico actually as many who,crossed the Mexican border illegally and not well accounted for were from central and south America along with Africa.

Then you have this:
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Three years ago, President Trump*called for*a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.” Over time, this idea, in*his words, “morphed into” various other policies that he calls “extreme vetting.” Despite challenges, courts have largely allowed these policies to take effect, and the results are now evident: The president is achieving his stated aim of slashing entries of Muslims into the United States.

A*new analysis*from the Cato Institute — based on*data*from*the State Department — makes the facts clear. On refugee policy — the area where the president has the most discretion to enact his vision — his administration has almost completely shut out Muslims.

From 2016 to 2018, the government*cut admissions for Muslim refugees*— which Trump has*calleda “Trojan horse” designed to bring down America — by 91 percent. In 2016, the governmentaccepted*nearly 40,000 Muslim refugees around the world, compared with just 3,000 in 2018. And while refugee admissions overall have plummeted, the Muslim share dropped from 45 percent to 15 percent, meaning it’s fallen at an even faster rate. This reverses a prior trend: From 2009 to 2016, the Obama administration more than doubled Muslim refugee admissions.
Seems to me we should have a rational system in place that doesn't change with the whims of whomever is President. Right now I could use a few good motivated immigrants in my work force. While I was careful to hire legals completing I-9s, W-2's and such during the 1990's and through 2010 had all the affordable help I wanted that appreciated their jobs for usually about 10 to 13 years and suddenly they had the system worked out and basically turned into millenial type workers playing with their cell phones all day if I was not standing over them. My three best Amigos worked 11, 13 and 13 years respectively, purchased dump trucks which loaded all their personal possessions in along with a caravan of pickup trucks and moved back to Ol Mexico and began hauling dirt in paid for trucks making a fine living to this day working in growing areas of Mexico.
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Old September 29, 2019, 16:38   #916
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Mackenzie Institute
“We assess…Iran probably already has nuclear weapons”
By Dr. Peter Vincent Pry (September 25, 2019)
Some in Washington want to bomb Iran for attacking Saudi Arabia’s oil fields. But what if Iran has nuclear missiles?
Intelligence failure can kill thousands, as Washington learned on December 7, 1941, and should have learned again on September 11, 2001. Intelligence failure in the nuclear missile age can destroy entire nations.

Washington officialdom believes Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons based on little more than wishful thinking and blind faith in an Intelligence Community deeply corrupted by the Obama Administration—and still unreformed by President Trump.

Three years ago, senior Reagan and Clinton administration officials warned that Iran probably already has nuclear weapons. See “Underestimating Nuclear Missile Threats from North Korea and Iran” National Review February 12, 2016:

“Iran is following North Korea’s example — as a strategic partner allied by treaty and pledged to share scientific and military technology. Iran sacrificed its overt civilian nuclear program to deceive the Obama administration, to lift international sanctions, to prevent Western military action, while a clandestine military nuclear program no doubt continues underground. That is why Iran, under the nuclear deal, will not allow inspection of its military facilities and prohibits interviewing scientists — it is concealing the dimensions and status of Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.”

“We assess, from U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency reports and other sources, that Iran probably already has nuclear weapons. Over 13 years ago, prior to 2003, Iran was manufacturing nuclear-weapon components, like bridge-wire detonators and neutron initiators, performing non-fissile explosive experiments of an implosion nuclear device, and working on the design of a nuclear warhead for the Shahab-III missile.”

“Thirteen years ago Iran was already a threshold nuclear-missile state. It is implausible that Iran suspended its program for over a decade for a nuclear deal with President Obama.”

The above assessment is by Ambassador R. James Woolsey, President Clinton’s Director of Central Intelligence; Dr. William Graham, President Reagan’s White House Science Advisor, leader of NASA, and recently Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission; Fritz Ermarth, a national security advisor to President Reagan and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council; and Ambassador Henry Cooper, former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative.
These stellar intelligence officers, strategic thinkers, and scientists played major roles helping win the Cold War. Perhaps we should listen to them now about Iran:

“Iran probably has nuclear warheads for the Shahab-III medium-range missile, which they tested for making EMP attacks…Iran already has the largest medium-range ballistic-missile force in the Middle East.”
“Iran could be building a nuclear-capable missile force, partly hidden in tunnels, as suggested by its dramatic revelation of a vast underground missile-basing system last year. Iran is building toward a large, deployable, survivable, war-fighting missile force — to which nuclear weapons can be swiftly added as they are manufactured.”

“And at a time of its choosing, Iran could launch a surprise EMP attack against the United States by satellite, as they have apparently practiced with help from North Korea.”

More recently, David Albright, former nuclear inspector for the UN International Atomic Energy Agency, and Ollie Heinonen, former Deputy Director General of IAEA, published an Institute for Science and International Security report based on Iran’s secret nuclear weapon archives clandestinely obtained by Israel’s Mossad:

“The archive shows that the AMAD program intended to build five nuclear warhead systems for missile delivery and possible use in preparation for an underground nuclear test; an actual test would require a decision to proceed. The program was also partially designed to have its own independent uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment resources. The documentation indicates that Iran’s nuclear weaponization efforts did not stop after 2003…”

“The United States incorrectly assessed with high confidence in a 2007 declassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that ‘in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.’ Based on the information in the archives, Iran’s nuclear weapons program continued after 2003…Moreover, the 2007 NIE also incorrectly asserted that Iran had not re-started its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007…However, there is no evidence that the program was ever fully halted, even up to today.”

“The information in the archive evaluated so far does not answer the question of what the current status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program is…”

Assessments that Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons assume erroneously: our intelligence is perfect, Iran’s civilian nuclear program is all there is, no clandestine nuclear weapons program exists in Iran’s numerous underground military facilities—including unaccounted uranium and plutonium facilities for fueling nuclear weapons, as in North Korea.

Where Iran is concerned, our Intelligence Community appears to have learned nothing from its spectacular failures grossly underestimating the nuclear threat from North Korea. Does the Intelligence Community even want to know the truth about Iran’s Islamic bomb?
Reza Kahlili, the only CIA operative to successfully penetrate the scientific wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, claimed Iran does have nuclear weapons and offered to procure photographs. Obama’s Intelligence Community was not interested, and is still not interested.

President Trump has inherited an Intelligence Community that disagrees with him about almost everything, including his decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. According to the Intelligence Community, Iran is in technical compliance with the nuclear deal, officially the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA).

But if Iran already has nuclear weapons, Iran was never in compliance with JCPOA, and the Intelligence Community can chalk-up another major intelligence failure, potentially far more consequential than Pearl Harbor or 9/11.

If Iran has the bomb, why have they not yet attacked “the Great Satan” that is the United States?

Radical Islamist cleric Nasir al-Fahd’s May 2003 fatwa “A Treatise On The Legal Status Of Using Weapons Of Mass Destruction Against Infidels” may provide a clue. Although al-Fahd is a Sunni sympathetic to al Qaeda, his rules for a nuclear holocaust against Infidels may well govern the thinking of the Shiite mullahs who run Iran too:

–First, under Islam’s “Just War Doctrine” the Infidels have to be given an opportunity to convert to Islam, before they can be destroyed. This Iran’s leaders have done repeatedly, most prominently former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at Columbia University (September 24, 2007) and at least twice at the United Nations (September 23, 2009 and September 26, 2012) about “the current world order based on injustice” and the virtues of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

–Next, a “final solution” against Infidels cannot be implemented except in a defensive war to protect the Ummah, the community or territory of Islam. So a U.S. bombing campaign, especially one that threatens regime change in Iran, would justify nuclear annihilation of “the Great Satan”.

Is it possible Iran is deliberately trying to provoke the U.S. to attack, so the Mullahs can in “self-defense” come out of the nuclear closet by blasting a U.S. aircraft carrier, or making an EMP attack on North America?

By the way, “political correctness” under the Obama and Bush administrations, unfortunately continuing today, forbids the Intelligence Community from analyzing the ideology of radical Islam (the so-called “religion of peace”) for purposes of strategic warning or waging the Global War on Terrorism. Consequently, the best and brightest counterterrorism and Islamist experts were purged from the Intelligence Community.

We should be treating Iran like a nuclear weapons state, with the same prudent caution used toward North Korea. Let’s not learn the hard way that Iran already has its Islamic Bomb.

Appended to this article is a more comprehensive assessment of evidence Iran already has nuclear weapons that I wrote in 2016, drawing upon my training as a CIA Intelligence Officer and professional lifetime as a national security scholar. Whether from bias or wishful thinking, compelling evidence Iran already has nuclear weapons, and warnings by prominent intelligence and national security experts from the U.S. and Israel, is largely ignored, as if this legitimate opinion is under a news blackout.
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Old October 06, 2019, 12:05   #917
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Out of Israel yesterday.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/A...cle.aspx/24530
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Old October 06, 2019, 13:29   #918
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I think the issue in Iran and to some degree China is once the leadership feels a squeeze, then they need to draw the people's attention away from politics and the answer is usually war. Argentina took that position. WWI was BS between Austria and Serbia. When human leaders get involved the "Unintended Consequences" effect takes over. It is that effect that worries me in most political enviroments.
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Old October 10, 2019, 10:01   #919
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And what are these folks going to do after the EMP event. In the previous work the number was 15% of that age bracket would melt down within 30 days. These numbers indicate that may be wrong. Anxiety and mental health. Hell everyday, when the phone rings and I see the number my pulse rate goes up. I guess the depression era adults must have been all nuts.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/mill...es-survey.html
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Old October 10, 2019, 13:01   #920
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Good point. I read a study of WWII sinkings in the North Atlantic and 50 year olds survival rates were much higher than 20 year olds. In the book the Forgotten Soldier, when dropped off on the eastern front and told to find a squad, our hero noted the older guys and thought, they have been here a while and probably know something and was the only one off the truck to join up with the "old men". On the Oregon trail, they weren't many 20 year olds. It cost money to get a wagon, supplies etc. Most were in their late 40s, 50s and 60s. One fellow I read about joined his son and began the trip at 71. ( He did die, drowning in the Columbia river saving his grandson). Old age and gile.
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Old October 10, 2019, 20:49   #921
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California is getting a "dry run" for an EMP event.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/b...questions.html
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Old October 21, 2019, 10:46   #922
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State of affairs on EMP. The swamp creatures are fighting to make sure no one does anything. If EMP is "fake science", why does the DOD go to the lengths it does to harden systems?
https://www.realcleardefense.com/art...st_114802.html
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Old October 21, 2019, 11:29   #923
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All fine and dandy...until the next ultra solar coronal ejaculation.
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Old October 25, 2019, 19:52   #924
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A side idea has crossed my mind about EMP or maybe more in the line of signal jamming. I now own several of the ATN night vision scopes with tons of onboard electronics from auto ranging, compensating for uphill or downhill shots, some with video recording, Bluetooth and more. How easy would it be for DARPA to develop an in field tool a special ops team could activate and shut down the electronics in all night vision devices that do not have a very specialized shielding that only allow their devices to continue functioning once they push the button.

I believe we likely have drones that can go on station above an operation that not only take out the enemies communications but likey as I am thinking an enemies night vision and other electronic devices while allowing our teams devices to work 100%. How bad would it suck if a military team was dispatched against civilians with such a device or the technology shared with law enforcement SWAT teams so all the $2,000 and more night vision tools civilians are now purchasing just quit working when they come to kick down our doors. Selected and highly focused "EMP" devices that can be aimed at a single sniper or patrol and put them back into the stone age when working in darkness.
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Old October 25, 2019, 21:53   #925
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It's why I have not abandoned my U.S. and Soviet Gen 1 or Gen 2 no frills night vision equipment as expect it to be less susceptible to directed interference. ATN is making two versions of some of their night vision, one with all the bells and whistles plus a model with just basic night vision or thermal features and no wireless, video, etc. Have been buying both and working on ways to shield the majority of the units from wide spectrum radio frequencies. All am leaving exposed is the front lense and the eyepiece. Like the anti thermal suits that reduce a person's thermal signature and I.R. signature upwards of 90%. If the new Fusion devices that combine Starlight and Thermal at likely Gen 4 or 5 levels won't find folks wearing the stuff it would not be filtering to civilian market even in small quantities and high prices.
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Old October 25, 2019, 23:13   #926
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Got a location/site selling for the basic model above??????? I've used ATN stuff that others have,,,,but zero desire to learn all the crap hanging off them.Anything other than an on and off switch is crap to me.
Scroll about half way down the page and there are two Thor LT Thermal models. One is 3-6x, 4-8x and a 4-12x LT models. Site does not show the 4-12x LT model yet. They mount in 30mm rings and like my 4-8x on to of a 6.8 spc II AR 15s.

Quote:
ATN Corp is proud to present the ThOR LT, a powerful yet compact thermal rifle scopes series. It’s an amazing addition to the already proven ATN line of thermal and night vision optics. We have stripped the “bells and whistles” making it more simple and easier to use. It is everything our customers have asked for. A close range scope that provides outstanding performance at a price that is affordable to the average hunter. If you are looking for compact, lightweight and most important - an affordable thermal solution then the ThOR LT is what you're after.
https://www.atncorp.com/thermal-scope-thor-hd#dc32

They have their new 4K day/night scopes with one shot sight in and bling you can ignore for $699 for the 3-14x and $699 for the 5-20x. Not the best night vision and will want an auxiliary I.R. Illuminator bit for the money beat no night vision scope. Trick is mount I.R. Illuminators under eves of house so you don't light yourself up as the target if use rifle or helmet mounted I.R. Illuminator. Use strong enough I.R. unit mounted on house it can wash out opposition's night vision unless military grade.

I really like my Gen 2+ CGT Starlight as is basic and have them in 4x and 6x fixed power. Run two 4x on AR 15s and 6x on an AR 10 and a turn bolt. Also have a Gen 3 white phosphorus but the black and white viewer trashes my night vision when lift off and the Gen 2+ green and black does not cause a blind eye when lift off scope. I am saving up for a Starlight/Thermal fusion monocular that allows user to go Starlight, Thermal or blend the two to suit their needs. Also have a nifty adapter that mounts a Leupold Tracker to Norotos MICH helmet mount and holds it proper distance from eye and shields backscatter off users face.
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Old November 16, 2019, 13:12   #927
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This came in from the task force. There are some interesting questions. Judge for yourself. I am trying to find out just where this originated from.
Resolution Research Survey on Preparedness:
The purpose of this study is to gauge the opinions of American residents with regards to our safety and preparedness for the many types of natural or man-made disasters that may affect our lives. We appreciate you taking 5-10 minutes of your time to share your opinion and let your voice be heard. Please share OUTSIDE of our normal “grid security” awareness circles!
https://resolutionresearch.sjc1.qual...?pid=infragard
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Old November 16, 2019, 14:41   #928
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Wow,
I was on it two or three days ago. Questions got a little to invasive. How much food and water do you have. How much in silver or gold do you have? etc.
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Old November 18, 2019, 19:56   #929
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Made available for emergency managers.
https://michaelmabee.info/the-cavalry-is-not-coming/
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Old November 18, 2019, 20:14   #930
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Five years and basicly no progress. Israel and to some extent Russia and China have addressed the issues. We in the west, that have really built the 21st century world, sit fat, dumb and happy. No sure what to say any more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtOz...ature=youtu.be
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Old November 18, 2019, 20:34   #931
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Then there is the political nut jobs. I think the Demo rats would kill everyone that was not falling in line. This level of irresponsibility clearly indicates in my book they are not rational in any way.
https://www.newsmax.com/peterpry/ele.../15/id/941939/
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Old December 02, 2019, 17:20   #932
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Came from the taskforce. The thing to remember is that the Russians have used EMP mortar rounds over a decade ago. Some of this technology is filtering out. EMP may not be one big blast but a half dozen smaller ones.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...es-ncna1091101
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Old December 17, 2019, 14:23   #933
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Question on EMP and Satellite phones. It's a subject I am not sure data published is 100% accurate. We keep a Motorola Iridium MS1-20 Satellite Phone activated on a plan where we get 30 minutes per month and 99 cents per minute past our paid hour. If any satellites survive an EMP is the government going to.take control of all?

After years of using SAT phones in FEMA and GEMA drills have watched guys in suits walk around roof of hospital for an hour trying to get a signal in heavy rain as a handheld phone does not have the power to punch through the cloud cover and rain. Last drill K observed (it was my turn to carry a clipboard and watch rather than participate) noticed the local hospital bad all new SAT phones which h did much better and all eventually made a successful call and half got them to go into hotspot mode as well. All were Qualcomm with Globalstar as service provider. First time I saw SAT phones act reliably when weather was bad and multiple people putting demand on the system as this was a Region 4 drill which covers entire southeast. Phone is free if sign up for their $99 per month plan with 150 minutes included.

My SAT phone lives in Faraday box and is removed every 60 to 90 days to charge batteries and make a call for testing. Mine suffers from sucking in heavy rain and cannot hotspot off of the older unit. Is if worth paying $100 month to keep a SAT phone if have an EMP. For me it's mainly to use if wired grid view down and cellular crashes or is overwhelmed. SAT phone gives me one more tool in the box. But if these new Qualcomm work significantly better and let me hotspot my laptop or tablet off of it seems like it may be worth looking for a cheaper plan with fewer minutes to have. Have watched tree cover, rain, overhead structure stop them so have to see the sky for them to work and understand that weakness but read conflicting data on how the SAT phones will work as many providers claim their satellites are shielded from EMP. What say the experts?
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Old December 17, 2019, 14:55   #934
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Wouldn't it be ironic if an EMP burst happened during the time you had it out of the box charging it.
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Old December 17, 2019, 22:08   #935
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but read conflicting data on how the SAT phones will work as many providers claim their satellites are shielded from EMP. What say the experts?
I am not an expert but when I got my Emergency Management degree in 2011 they would not work because the satellites may be shelded, but they are dependant upon ground based insulation which are not.

When I worked FEMA National Level Exercise 2011 (new Madrid fault 2.1) the sat phones failed (along with all other coms) on day 1.

(We pretended email worked and the entire exercise's "success" was based on this.... Which everyone forgot about in the end.)

Still, Sat phones and base to base (as repeaters cannot be trusted to stay once their fuel tanks are empty) HAM are your best bet.
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Old December 18, 2019, 10:54   #936
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Currently working with DHS CISA to try and keep certain cell systems operating. Current effort is to provide hardened natural gas turbine generators running directly off well heads. We are also doing work on some optical systems for long link comms.
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Old December 18, 2019, 11:09   #937
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Currently working with DHS CISA to try and keep certain cell systems operating. Current effort is to provide hardened natural gas turbine generators running directly off well heads. We are also doing work on some optical systems for long link comms.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is vulnerable to power disruptions as well.

Meaning, if no outside power, the fiber is reliant on generators or invertors to keep all the hubs going until power is restored. And if anything in between goes out between the start to finish, it's from there on too. Start to finish in this instance meaning where the turbines are, to wherever the controllers are located.

FWIW, I was a broadband lineman for about 17 years. I do know a little about how fiber works and that is how it works
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Old December 18, 2019, 11:56   #938
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No fiber involved. This is a free space up-link down link system. They are looking at an aerostat sitting above 100,000 ft. Six systems will allow link anywhere in the US with 10Gbit/sec. data.
We are just finishing this month, laser up-link atmospheric tests.
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Old December 19, 2019, 17:17   #939
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Just watch that ethanol gasoline. It doesn't keep very long.
In the mean time, while not EMP the potential results are the same. This weaking of the Geomagnetic field is happening and has already had some effects in the telecom area. With a weak field the global electrical system is messed up. Solar flares will have greater effects as the weak field collaspes against the solar wind. This can at the very least allow more cosmic radiation down into the lower atmosphere where it serves to produce more cloud nuclei so larger storms can form. Also these flares can induce large ground currents. While not a big issue yet, if it keeps going like it is, we could be in a world of hurt in the not distant future. As the narrator says: eyes open.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD47kvu7q2Q
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Old December 19, 2019, 20:29   #940
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Just watch that ethanol gasoline. It doesn't keep very long.
Avgas stores for years if you can get your hands on it.
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Old December 19, 2019, 20:45   #941
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Back about 1990 I put some avgas in my 69 Charger Daytona. It got put in the garage with 1/2 tank left. Fast forward to 2001. I thought "drop the tank" but saw it had almost half a tank showing. So what the hell. Pluged the plugs, oiled everything. It ran! Didn't knock but did smell like it got filled up in Mexico.
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Old December 20, 2019, 16:44   #942
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If fuel has ethanol it will let you down if stored. If,stored in container that is vented or has a large amount of empty space occupied by "atmosphere" the oxygen in the atmosphere will oxydize the fuel. If filling a vehicle with aviation fuel top it off and fill e few five gallon steel cans with steel lids. When get home top off the vehicle almost to overflow and then install your already fabricated plug for overflow valve in filler neck and use a non-vented gas cap. Purge tank with a good squirting of nitrogen before you put your cap on and will have almost no oxygen oxydizing your fuel. The filling car half full was beginning of issue and not stopping all future ingress of more oxygen was second.

At better small engine shops and some home improvement centers can buy non ethanol fuel in sealed metal cans. Most arrive quart sizes and come in different oil mixtures but there is one blend that is supposed to work with any small engine requiring a 30:1 to 60:1 gasoline oil mix. My small engine shop sells the non ethanol mixed in quarts and gallon size sealed metal cans. They sell premium 93 octane pure gasoline in gallon and five gallon sealed metal cans. I have a dozen quarts of the compatable with all mixed fuel needs and each is dated. Use from the oldest and if at end of summer when put up all my yard tools drain gas then crank and let them run dry. If have a five gallon can of pure gasoline or quart of mixed half empty purge them with nitrogen and put the cap on in case not opened til spring.

Have a 500 and 250 gallon tank of gasoline along with a 250 gallon tank of diesel and five drums of factory sealed diesel. Used to keep them all filled with premium during the prime hurricane season and only filled my trucks from the 500 gallon tank. The 250 gallon gasoline tank is buried for consistent temperature so always used aviation fuel, back filled it with nitrogen and used screw on caps even at the vent pipe so it would not oxidize. My fuel vendor asked me why I always had that tank filled once a year with aviation fuel (would burn it in trucks just to be sure it was always semI fresh and refill.

The owner of my commercial,fuel supplier hoards gasoline, diesel, kerosene and propane at home just like I do but in larger quantities. He asked me straight up if I was hoarding and when said yes he gave me a lot of advice. He said the higher the octane the higher it's propensity to attract humidity and be contaminated with water. He sells two different premium fuels. One is 93 octane which he recommends for a daily or regular use tank/pump. Other is a 92 octane premium with a completely different additive package and is engineered for long term storage. Claims it's what the government pumps back into empty oil wells for our strategic reserve.

Now all my 500 gallon tank at work has 93 octane and when stick says it's at 60% have them top it off to 95% unless a hurricane is blowing up the Gulf and we have them top it to the rim and top off every vehicle on the lot. My 250 gallon gasoline tank at house is now filled with his recommended 92 octane long term storage fuel but continue to use a nitrogen blanket and screw on lids. He says all the huge tanks at refineries have a nitrogen "blanket" sitting on the gasoline to keep all that surface area from reacting with the atmosphere.

Since wife totaled her diesel truck and we replaced it with a Hemi powered Dodge rather than Cummins once we burned the 50 gallon drums we now only keep the 250 gallon tank full of diesel for the bucket truck with its big Caterpillar. The shed that held the five drums of diesel now holds five drums of factory sealed racing fuel which we have replaced once a year. Along with the buried 250 gallons of 92 octane long storage fuel at home we keep two 55 gallon drums (50 gallons of fuel) of factory sealed racing gasoline which is replaced once per year.

HVAC is a dual fuel natural gas/heat pump design that can run as heat pump when temperatures are optimum or switch to natural gas if below the threshold for a heat pump to operate well. Also if we leave home for a week, turn thermostat down to 50 then when get home flip it into natural gas mode to heat house back up to 68 in matter of minutes and much less cheaper than electric strip heaters in a conventional heat pump. I purchased a propane conversion kit for it and hot water heater so if natural gas grid and electric grid go down we switch to generators for electricity (with batteries as needed during sag when grid first drops or generator is not keeping up with peak load demands) and lock out the heat pump so electric strip heaters can't come on and drag down the generator, it's done from natural gas grid. If entire world takes a dump switch HVAC and hot water to propane along with generator. If natural gas grid is up generator runs off natural gas.

If everything were to die then can choose to run the generator off natural gas, propane or gasoline. Also have a big three phase trailer mounted generator that runs off diesel and has caddies to carry two 55 gallon drums. If SHTF plan is to hook big generator to big truck and roll all 55 gallon drums of work fuel on, work gums, work ammo, work armor and portable welders and point the big 6×6 28,000 GVWR truck toward the eight to ten mIle trip home based on choice of route.

Oxidized fuel, ethanol filled fuel that has 10% or more alcohol helping it attract water from atmosphere and other poorly stored fuel may be gum when you need it. Every five years our tanks are cleaned of any sludge or contaminants that settled to bottom by our fuel vendor. For most I suggest ordering 55 gallon drums and replacing them every year or two at the least. If have enough time can go back to work and drag the 1,000 gallon propane tank there up on a trailer and bring it to the Ponderosa. If past point of caring may have it with the generator chained to big trailer and all the shop fuel coming toward house with guns blazing. Have two AR 10s can drop binary triggers in about as fast as can attach a trailer so have two binary MBRs with 50 round drum mags to get me home. Would pull all ballistic polycarbonate, 3/16" and thicker T7 aluminum, steel of mixed harnesses and ballistic polycarbonate on the big train and just weigh current conditions as monitor ham radio as when it's time to quit, lock the doors and get home before it's too late to get home.

I have thought about fuel, proper fuel to store, how much I can safely store, transporting it and all items at work that need to come home if there is time. To hook up the diesel generator only takes five minutes so it's coming and the truck holds fifty gallons of fuel and becomes a radio tower or 60 foot crows nest watchmans post when it gets home plus it's 28,000 pounds of steel can park parallel with house to add cover to occupants. With it and three Dodge 4×4 trucks can shield I entire front of house as will use motorcycles for transportation to conserve fuel.
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Old December 20, 2019, 16:58   #943
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No fiber involved. This is a free space up-link down link system. They are looking at an aerostat sitting above 100,000 ft. Six systems will allow link anywhere in the US with 10Gbit/sec. data.
We are just finishing this month, laser up-link atmospheric tests.
I know where there is a Red Cross owned trailer four miles from my house that when opened and fully deployed allows operation of eight high speed computer terminals (DSL speed minimum) along with up to 24 s,art phones or tablets to hot spot off it and 48 different phone up links. Odds are I could have it hidden in my azelia bushes before the men tasked to come get it even cross the county line but bet a drone would come find me fast.

I believe if don't downright know unless the Chinese and Russians have satellites shoot down our satellites we have a significant number of shielded communications birds that are high enough an EMP aimed at destroying ground communications, information infrastructure and power grid it's likely not going ton take out the birds too. I have all band and all mode radio from low band Morse code to my own cell phone repeater. Looking at the new Qualcomm Sat Phones with ability to use as a data Hotspot has me intrigued. Odds are will own one soon and wish I could afford their data up link to keep all my computers going but most of y'all want be around the net to talk guns so likely Hotspot off the phone will be enough data.
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Old December 20, 2019, 20:07   #944
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I am not an expert but when I got my Emergency Management degree in 2011 they would not work because the satellites may be shelded, but they are dependant upon ground based insulation which are not.

When I worked FEMA National Level Exercise 2011 (new Madrid fault 2.1) the sat phones failed (along with all other coms) on day 1.

(We pretended email worked and the entire exercise's "success" was based on this.... Which everyone forgot about in the end.)

Still, Sat phones and base to base (as repeaters cannot be trusted to stay once their fuel tanks are empty) HAM are your best bet.
I have participated in dozens of GEMA, FEMA and other state and federal agency drills. Many were one day and some up to three day drills. In the post drill hot wash it was not uncommon for different facilities and/or participating agencies to have 90% to 100% failure rates for satellite phones. It's actually not uncommon for the cell system in area where drill is centered or major piece of infrastructure like a mobile hospital that depends on cell phones and data to crash every tower in range of a big piece of the drill.

Watching six men in suits walking around on the roof of a six story hospital trying to get just one phone to make contact with GEMA or FEMA command during heavy cloud cover much less rain. That said Sat Phones are getting better and the number of birds in the air are increasing with different companies competing to get major share of the market by being more reliable than the competition. We usually rented Sat Phones for our bigger climbing expeditions and in bad weather they were spotty at best but on a blue sky day from a glacier at 18,000 feet or 20,000 foot summit they were clear as a land line.

In some drills we would even crash a Ma Bell remote terminal when suddenly we went from waiting for start time to fifty phones making their first calls and computers logging into our GEMA/FEMA or whatever agencies seriver would crash closest terminal and the phone systems software began to reroute traffic around other terminals to spread the load. Georgia Powers "Southern Link" which is a voice system that transfers calls through power lines was always robust but few customers ever used it and why they stopped marketing it with only a few big commercial accounts.

The APCO 25 digitally scrambled law enforcement and emergency services systems would have failures at places we had a mock incident as multiple cops and fire fighters keyed their radios to read their script of give their report and tower or computer controller could not allocate that many pairs. Basically everything crashed and was handed to the ham radio operators.

Was at a pre-drill planning session where a dozen or so representatives were sent from FEMA and Red Cross to help design the drill along with define the scope and goals. When discussing comms one hospital was bragging about their new Sat Phones and one of the FEMA reps said that was all and good but on average only expect a 30% success rate at best and 0% if conditions are bad. I was the E.C. for largest ARES group in the region and a D.E.C. for our district so was representing ham radio from ARRL ARES and another group that used ham radio called Mountain Medical Reserve Corps.

The FEMA and Red Cross reps both said the only communications they considered 100% reliable were volunteer run Ham Radio assets. That no matter what when systems crash, hurricanes blow them away, ice storms put all the lines on the ground just be prepared to hand off their messages to ham radio operators and if don't have a good relationship, communications and respect for their ham radio volunteers their issue whether a blue sky drill pre planned months in advance or surprise local to regional tragedy they are going to have a heck of a time communicating without ham radio operators.

In dozens of state and regional drills I was stunned to realize how much respect FEMA, Red Cross and other similar agencies have for ham radio. At the same time most local authorities from law enforcement to fire department, county commissioners have zero respect for ham radio in many communities. We have to fight for a closet to work in at the hospital but when their phones and computers go down and ham radio shows up with trailers, tents and personal equipment and in half a day have all their comms going along smoothly they change. We spent 14 years trying to get permission to have one desk and put two radios in our local hospital till they had a full systems crash and ham radio bailed them out. Soon we had our own room, $50,000 initial budget and all access to the facility. When the I.T. people refused to connect our D-Star repeaters up for fear of hackers coming in through our radios one call and hospital director told head of I.T. to hook us up before end of the day or turn in his I.D. badge and keys.

That said even knowing ham radio is only 100% you can really only pass traffic through other hams who hand deliver messages to recipients. We have solved a lot of that but also need to be compatable with as many systems as possible. I have the same radio the local sheriff and fire chief have in their cars in my shack so if they need a message sent outside of their system and their cell phone or land line doesn't work can ask me to get their message through.

From all band all mode ham radio which requires about two dozen radios and multiple computers to integrate, LEO/F.D. P-25, marine radio, personal cell repeaters/boosters, microwave, military (MARS, Military Affiliated Radio Service which has hams always training to pick up the slack if the militaries systems crash) radio, 900 mhz/1.2 mhz/5 ghz experimental bands, Morse code, PSK 31, D-Star, NBEMS, satellite and more a man better have some of everything including citizens band, FRS, GMRS and every widget you can buy and figure out how to use.

My main rifle rated body armor setup has three radios and a phone. I can even link from my vest through my HF rigs and talk to hams in Europe or South America if felt the need with a few button pushes. Water, Food, Weapons, Ammo, Medicine, Communications and Power (propulsion and electrical) are your must have systems and reliable communications are not easy. You don't open a box and insert batteries. You study, you learn, you practice and spend years to become a communicator. I can pull weather data right off the NOAA satellites, world wide nautical systems and even hack into places not supposed to be unless the emergency dictates which is why the first and last rule the FCC has is during a real emergency you can do whatever it takes to push a message through.

Have been called to dozens of municipalities following them having their first major communications failure to advise them. 7 out of 10 times they already have hams in place but one or two people had words in a drill and they sent their hams home and said they didn't need them so they didn't come back. Rebuilding these relationships was the key to helping many fix their issues just by burying the hatchet and learning to work together. That said anyone that participates regularly in this survival area of the Files and is not a ham radio operator may as well sell their guns too. I bet if entire grid fell apart I would have dozens of local hams keeping me apprised of everything going on in sight of them and have hams all around me. There are over a dozen others inside of eight miles on the road I live on and counting ones that are a block to a few miles east or west of my home road it's pushing fifty hams and most are gun nuts and survival oriented. That is a hell of a support group to have around your home base.
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Old December 20, 2019, 23:43   #945
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Have worked with them and know but they admit they can't even get to site to begin evaluating for 72 hours. First 72 hours most people are on their own with what little local response that holds together. By then the Governor should have called in his National Guard and made his official request for Federal Aid and next four days it's local and state issue with FEMA advanced help, usually military in about week. Like Red Cross they don't have 50,000 trained people sitting around 24/7/365 waiting for an emergency.

They have to call their approved contractors and see which can show, where they can show and in what numbers. FEMA is just moving pieces on the chess board and the move clock is set slow. Everyone needs to know they are basically 100% on their own r first 72 plus hours. If didn't prep or run its on them. Why I am prepped to the max and don't live near a coast, fault line, flood zone or area of civil unrest. When FEMA shows up at the Ponderosa my plan is to keep pouring hot coffee in them as they take a quick shower, eat some decent chow then send them back in the field fresh as most will make take at least a two hour nap and sign for saying they saved my @$$ during that time.
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Old December 21, 2019, 07:16   #946
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No fiber involved. This is a free space up-link down link system. They are looking at an aerostat sitting above 100,000 ft. Six systems will allow link anywhere in the US with 10Gbit/sec. data.
We are just finishing this month, laser up-link atmospheric tests.
It dawned on me the reason for the height: easier to keep station. When I presented my paper in Italy the concern was how long battery would last, but it was way lower so I had to deal with winds. Still, longer than a drone.
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Old December 21, 2019, 12:49   #947
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I sat in the "war room" ( in Obama's chair at the time)with the CTO of FEMA. I asked about an EMP plan. He looked at me and said " I report to congress and have to tell them how many died in the last hurricane flood and what we are doing about it. If an EMP attack occurs, I don't think I will be getting any calls from Congress."
The aerostat is still on the table. We get little contracts to work on bits and pieces, like this up-link test. We made progress on the power system and station keeping. Power was using a Thermal Dielectric Process. We demenstrated 32% direct thermal to electrical power conversion. What is so neat about TDP is that it is a true thermal process so you can extract energy going hot and going cold (just reversed polarity).
With that kind of power available and the altitude, we designed ion station keepers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion-propelled_aircraft
Don't make much money but we do have fun at times.
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Old December 22, 2019, 13:04   #948
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Just got this in:

--The new defense bill just signed by President Trump, the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act, incorporates the President’s EMP Executive Order, so it now has the force of law binding upon all relevant departments and agencies. This is potentially big progress, except both the EMP Executive Order and the NDAA EMP provision are at risk of going awry due to non-experts in DOE, DHS and elsewhere underestimating the EMP threat. Attached find NDAA Section 1740 “Electromagnetic Pulses and Geomagnetic Disturbances”.

--Also attached find a new annex to Wyoming’s official state emergency plans, that now includes protracted power outage resulting from EMP, thanks to my EMP Task Force. If we had the resources, a copy should be sent to every governor and state legislature as an example to emulate.

Both developments are big progress, but all could be lost if the President’s EMP Executive Order grossly underestimates the EMP threat and EMP non-experts at DOE, DHS and elsewhere mismanage this golden opportunity to achieve real national EMP preparedness.

Merry Christmas!
--Peter
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Old December 24, 2019, 13:12   #949
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Impact of NDAA 2020:
https://michaelmabee.info/emp-protection-ndaa-fy2020/
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Old December 25, 2019, 01:03   #950
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The decade where I was transitioning from a field responder to more of advisor/planner was invited to a GEMA meeting to kick the can down the road on ideas for the upcoming years drill. Had representatives from FEMA, GEMA, Georgia Hospital Association, CDC, State Patrol, GBI, National Weather Service and all the usual players but due to hosting region having issue with proper venue to hold the meeting the local Electric Membership Cooperative.

Quote:
Electric membership cooperatives (EMCs) are member-owned, not-for-profit utilities that serve approximately 4.4 million of Georgia’s 10 million residents and 73 percent of the state’s land area. Georgia’s EMCs employ more than 5,900 workers and operate by far the largest distribution network in the state, with 190,860 miles of electric power lines.
It was one of the larger and well run N.E. Georgia EMCs and first time I remember any representatives from any power provider in a early stage planning meeting. Almost all drills have parts of the power and communication grid failing due to what event we are simulating but never has a drill been based on complete failure of even a regions grid much less the entire state. The EMC had a half dozen representatives attending since it was in their main company operations office complex and while we were spit balling ideas one of them mentioned either an EMP or large enough failure of a couple major substations feeding metro Atlanta a cascading power failure unbalanced the grid quickly enough that some of our smaller and medium size hydroelectric plants could not shut down or shunt power quickly enough and their generators began to self destruct, resevior breaches due to inability to reroute water flow which would result in significant portions of the national grid infrastructure which could possibly take years to repair some of the generators. Once the turbines begin eating themselves there is no patch or easy fix. You contract with someone to make new turbines while pull the old one out (possibly in mangled pieces) and begin repair and retrofit of dams equipment to set the new turbines then power up a year or so later.

Northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, Tennessee and other large chunks of the south especially in rural areas get all their power from all the dams built mostly during the Great Depression under the Civil Works Administration, Public Works Act, Tennessee Valley Authority which provided the power to run the Alcoa plant and several nuclear research facilities that popped up during WW2 and also gave the southwest Hoover Dam. TVA has over fifty small to medium hydroelectric dams soon to be pushing 100 years old. As the EMC guys explained how easy an unbalancing of the grid could thrash power generators all over the grid based in age, employees ability to react and if built in safety systems actually function when their called upon.

The FEMA and GEMA representatives swapped a lot of sideways glances at mention of an EMP but when the power guys began explaining how easily something as a switch or fuse at large substation could cause a catastrophic unbalancing of the grid and cause generators and entire hydroelectric plants to basically self destruct they changed the subject quickly and said that was beyond our ability to simulate for even a major drill and at best was a sandtable exercise for the power companies to handle themselves. They not only didn't want to base a drill on grid failure they didn't even want the possibility discussed.

I believe we did our standard every other year drill based on hurricane blowing up from Gulf causing significant damage to South Georgia, mitigating damage while handling evacuees coming out of the costal areas, random hurricanes caused by hurricane as dropped to tropical storm status and blew threw state north and either major flooding if slow mover or light flooding but more refugees if moved out fast. Am so sick of hurricane drills I quit participating as we have enough real hurricanes we really don't need to drill for them. They are pretty common in all flavors thus we pretty much have that response down. Throw in a pandemic flu drill often enough they have become boring as we never really run the drill assuming a worst case or even bad case pandemic. We assume none will be so bad our mobile hospitals along with FEMA sending in their Region 4 SMAT team along with moving a few patients around won't cure.

The fact that grid and phones are going down because half the techs or more have said pandemic thus grid fails due to no maintenance is more than we want to try and work into a three day state wide drill. More than spot power failures that are back up in a few days and most generators working is always the plan. Bottom line is anytime someone suggests a full failure of electrical and/or communications grid and it's quickly mentioned as too large of scope for a drill and those are planned at the federal level not state or regional level. I just one time would like to run a drill where everything falls apart as I expect it to.

Has become so boring have retired to a reserve status where keep all my keys and I.D. cards with promise if SHTF once wife is secured will activate and do what I can at local EMA or hospital but no more heading for the Gulf Coast for weeks to months. Katrina pissed me off so bad I was in process of negotiating my step back to being willing to activate locally but not going into a zone where not only are gang bangers shooting at you even the cops are looting local stores and homes rather than answering calls. Someone hired contractors to deal with active shooter situations as the New Orleans and most coastal cops were not going into an active shoot and military said they couldn't send scout snipers or SEALs to handle it. The private contract sniper teams (most home from middle east) were darn good and company hired sent ten two man teams who were pretty much able to shut down anyone shooting at people opening bridges or roads across levies into land locked areas and didn't want cops to be able to drive in so shot at any road worker or telecom worker as did not want phones coming online so 911 could dispatch either.

Gustav was last hurricane I dispatched in for FEMA but worked one Atlantic storm that took down the public service radio system for a major Georgia costal systems at the personal request of their EMA director and took a team of ten volunteers and stopped at Ham Radio Outlet on way down wiping them out using the towns credit card and then pulled all their VHF equipment out of storage and put every patrol car, fire department vehicle and public works vehicle online in three days while running ham crams licensing up all their workers to run ham radio and janked the chain of the local ham radio volunteers that didn't activate because they were mad at new EMA director because he took half the guys keys and bullet from their top pocket like Andy would do to Barney when he got to big for his britches. Amazing how finicky volunteers are about having a badge.
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