A 'boots on the ground statistic' that bodes well

renaissance_warrior · June 30, 2010, 18:18

I am in the cable TV industry, and have been for about 10 years. In my weekly meeting with my client today, Comcast, I learned something very very interesting. The connect rates of new subscribers is over 40% HIGHER this June than at any time in the past 3 years in Denver. It appears that people are starting to spend a little more now, at least on the entertainment and internet side.

Buy.

juanni · June 30, 2010, 18:54

Quote:

Originally posted by renaissance_warrior
I am in the cable TV industry, and have been for about 10 years. In my weekly meeting with my client today, Comcast, I learned something very very interesting. The connect rates of new subscribers is over 40% HIGHER this June than at any time in the past 3 years in Denver. It appears that people are starting to spend a little more now, at least on the entertainment and internet side.

Buy.

Does this mean that your firm has retained a typical percentage of their existing clients and connected 40% more than a typical June....

or

Does it simply mean you are getting more new connects and maybe disconnects because people are moving into new digs far more than a typical June?
As in renting after foreclosures, downsizing, or even moving out of a rental and into a purchase?

.............juanni

motosapien · June 30, 2010, 19:10

People went out to the movies alot during the great depression. On the other hand, doing without cable works for maybe a year before the jones for the mindless buzz gets intolerable.

I do hope your right though.........

renaissance_warrior · June 30, 2010, 19:16

juanni, this is above and beyond the normal industry 'churn' rate which typically hovers around 4-5% monthly. The disconnect rates here have not elevated appreciably.

Now there is another perception about this; after further thought, as Denver is an economic magnet, it may simply be new moves to Denver, not a better economic condition. It may figure, due to school being over, and that is a typical month of migration, as well as late August.

**tuck0411** · June 30, 2010, 20:28

What do unemployed people do with their time? (When they're not pounding the pavement looking for a job, of course...) Could be they watch more cable TV...

Be interesting to know the breakdown of the 40% increase between the basic packages (more affordable to someone living on UE) and the premium packages (more likely to be bought by someone with a job).

MtnWulf · June 30, 2010, 22:44

I think a better indicator is my local tire dealer.

Bought a couple of new tires for the front of my work truck, he told me that he used to average selling 12 new tires a day, but for the past year and a half he only averages 6.

His biggest business is selling and installing USED tires. He used to have a pile of them but they're almost all gone. When he sells new tires he can sell the used ones to someone, and sometimes he even sells the tires from THAT car to someone else.

Also the excise tax on tires and components like valve stems from China has skyrocketed, and the poorer folks are being hardest hit by the increased costs.

gates · June 30, 2010, 23:08

I think Moto and Tuck have this dialed in - when people cant go OUT and spend they upgrade their lower level lifestyle conditions - theres a concept in sociology that basically states people will try to live at the upper end of their current circumstance - it had to do with low income people buying name brand foodstuffs but it applies here - the concept is the same - it gives the consumer the feeling of prosperity within the economic circumstances they find themselves in.

RG Coburn · July 01, 2010, 00:12

Quote:

Originally posted by tuck0411
What do unemployed people do with their time? (When they're not pounding the pavement looking for a job, of course...) Could be they watch more cable TV...

A friend works for the company that provides and maintains Michigan's lottery system.He says,when ever the economy tanks,lottery sales climb. People not working sit around the bars and buy lottery tickets.(with unemployment money)

gates · July 01, 2010, 00:23

umm... exactly!

Enquiring Minds · July 01, 2010, 11:38

Good point-counterpoints here.

Another point of note: Denver is the largest concentration of FEDGOD jobs outside of DC... it's easy to afford the premium brainwashing, when you're a .gov leech, feeding off The People, with the Cadillac bennies and Rolls-Royce pension.

I always suspected the Obama "stimulus" would be more "community organizers" and various paper-pushers, vs. hardcore infrastructure projects... he and his handlers know nothing of the latter, neither the utter importance, nor how to to set about anything in the real, UNforgiving world of Civil Engineering and Public Works.

I'm not sure the nation has endured such a leadership vacuum since the mid 19th Century.

renaissance_warrior · July 01, 2010, 11:56

Rutherford B. Hayes would be proud.

davedude · July 01, 2010, 12:12

Quote:

I am in the cable TV industry, and have been for about 10 years. In my weekly meeting with my client today, Comcast, I learned something very very interesting. The connect rates of new subscribers is over 40% HIGHER this June than at any time in the past 3 years in Denver. It appears that people are starting to spend a little more now, at least on the entertainment and internet side. Buy.

Interesting----I just went the other way and disconnected my cable service.
I have been looking to cut expenses and it was costing me $127/mth for Time Warner broadband internet and cable TV service. I enjoyed the service but I am cutting expenses as much as I can stand.

Dave Dude

Nomad, 2nd · July 01, 2010, 16:17

From what I've read... the 'trickle down' is responsable...

People who were going out to eat Steak... Are now going out to eat fast food, etc.

Everyone's 'bumped down a level'.
This is replicated in vacations as well. (and I'm sure other consumer spending, it's just that the couple articles I've read focused on TV and vacations)

As for myself... I just got a new place, Just got internet, the (VERY) little TV I watchcan be had off the internets.

renaissance_warrior · July 01, 2010, 20:37

Dave, then that would maker me realign my raw analysis to new moves. Thanks for the input.

carguym14 · July 03, 2010, 13:19

Quote:

Originally posted by MtnWulf
I think a better indicator is my local tire dealer.

Bought a couple of new tires for the front of my work truck, he told me that he used to average selling 12 new tires a day, but for the past year and a half he only averages 6.

His biggest business is selling and installing USED tires. He used to have a pile of them but they're almost all gone. When he sells new tires he can sell the used ones to someone, and sometimes he even sells the tires from THAT car to someone else.

Also the excise tax on tires and components like valve stems from China has skyrocketed, and the poorer folks are being hardest hit by the increased costs.

I'll add my 2 cents here.

My tire sales are down a little this year.All the companies had price increases,so even the cheap tires aren't cheap anymore.I do have people waiting until the last minute before they buy new.Also selling a lot more pairs rather than all 4.

You can get buy in the summer,but come winter,you won't have a choice if you want to get anywhere safely.I don't sell used-I charge for mounting,but the used tires are free-I do not want the liability headaches.

Overall though,business here has been good.Tires aren't my main business-I do repairs and towing as well.A lot of my customers put off buying new and are putting the money into the cars they already own.
I do not know anyone in this area that thinks things are going to get better anytime soon.

As for the original topic,all I have is a small tv that was given me some years back with rabbit ears.I watch very little tv anyway,and can't justify wasting time and money on it.No offense to you guys in the industry.

juanni · July 04, 2010, 15:52

My observation is based on Craigslist ads for used machinery, tools, motorcycles and such.

Diligently looking at ads for the last 8 years in AZ, CA & Nevada, I have definitely noticed a drop in prices, more ads with "must sell" and more industrial quality machines that have already passed to the small timers or hobbyists that which are now being moved out of the garage and into CL.
These people, anyway are liquidating non essential toys.

Also what were bargains 2-3 years ago and would have been snapped up in minutes, now languish for weeks, only to be relisted with yet lower prices.

..............juanni

evan price · July 05, 2010, 03:14

With regard to tires- I used to be a tire tech, and I still have lots of contacts especially when I pick up wheel weights, and am always scrounging for good used takeoffs.
Where once you used to be able to find OK sets, or nice pairs, now you are lucky to find anything with tread on them at all, and lots worn into the belts. People are running tires until they blow nowadays.
Used batteries are about impossible to find unless you are there when good ones come in.
The U-Pull-It junkyards are booming again, and not just guys looking for hotrod parts. Alternators, starters, brake parts, lots of maintenance items sell out quick. Cylinder heads and trannies and whole motors are selling well.
The junkers being brought in are nowhere near as nice as they were a few years ago, and scrap prices are staying high enough that there should be a lot coming through. What is coming in for junk is mostly junk. I used to be able to buy 2-3 cars a month that needed nothing more than a basic repair- fuel pump, ball joints, "Been sitting around & won't start", that sort of stuff. Now stuff is run into the ground before junking it.
Same with lawn mowers. Used to get a trailer of mowers every summer- riding and push. Still finding them, but again, they are clapped out instead of just a simple repair.

Americans have re-discovered the thrifty lifestyle. Even though it crimps my style to not be able to get nice stuff for trash prices, at least maybe this will be a long-term thing. The Bic Pen school of manufacturing needs to end.

jdluton · July 05, 2010, 07:57

Also,

People are "going out" less and staying at home more.
For the price of a night on the town you can have a month of Cable TV and internet to boot...

Enquiring Minds · July 09, 2010, 11:01

Cable/sattelite TV never made anyone a more interesting person. I suggest turning off the brainwashing toob, and learning a foreign language--you'll not only wow the ladies, but you'll have access (via the 'net) to less censored news sources.

Quote:

Originally posted by jdluton
Also,

People are "going out" less and staying at home more.
For the price of a night on the town you can have a month of Cable TV and internet to boot...

Another good insight. Look at the demise of Blockbuster. It seems 1 of 3 upscale steakhouses are shutdown in my metro area.

As for trickle-down, we just had a Burger King go under in FLL, which was located, as usual, on a major 6-lane blvd...

June 30, 2010, 18:18	#1
renaissance_warrior Registered FALaholic #: 13689 Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 8,558	A 'boots on the ground statistic' that bodes well I am in the cable TV industry, and have been for about 10 years. In my weekly meeting with my client today, Comcast, I learned something very very interesting. The connect rates of new subscribers is over 40% HIGHER this June than at any time in the past 3 years in Denver. It appears that people are starting to spend a little more now, at least on the entertainment and internet side. Buy. __________________ "In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot." - Mark Twain “The government turns every contingency into an excuse for enhancing power in itself.” - John Adams "The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome becomes bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." ~ Cicero , 55 BC ~

June 30, 2010, 19:16	#4
renaissance_warrior Registered FALaholic #: 13689 Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 8,558	juanni, this is above and beyond the normal industry 'churn' rate which typically hovers around 4-5% monthly. The disconnect rates here have not elevated appreciably. Now there is another perception about this; after further thought, as Denver is an economic magnet, it may simply be new moves to Denver, not a better economic condition. It may figure, due to school being over, and that is a typical month of migration, as well as late August. __________________ "In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot." - Mark Twain “The government turns every contingency into an excuse for enhancing power in itself.” - John Adams "The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome becomes bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." ~ Cicero , 55 BC ~

June 30, 2010, 20:28	#5
tuck0411 Curio & Relic Bronze Contributor Silver Contributor FALaholic #: 29165 Join Date: May 2007 Location: WA Posts: 2,003	What do unemployed people do with their time? (When they're not pounding the pavement looking for a job, of course...) Could be they watch more cable TV... Be interesting to know the breakdown of the 40% increase between the basic packages (more affordable to someone living on UE) and the premium packages (more likely to be bought by someone with a job). __________________ "Posterity! You will never know, how much it cost the present Generation, to preserve your Freedom! I hope you will make a good Use of it. If you do not, I shall repent in Heaven, that I ever took half the Pains to preserve it." -- John Adams "Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect every one who approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright force. Whenever you give up that force, you are ruined." - Patrick Henry "It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." -- Samuel Adams "Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their consciences." -- C.S. Lewis

July 01, 2010, 11:38	#10
Enquiring Minds Registered FALaholic #: 209 Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: "The Venice of America"... FLL... Posts: 4,157	Good point-counterpoints here. Another point of note: Denver is the largest concentration of FEDGOD jobs outside of DC... it's easy to afford the premium brainwashing, when you're a .gov leech, feeding off The People, with the Cadillac bennies and Rolls-Royce pension. I always suspected the Obama "stimulus" would be more "community organizers" and various paper-pushers, vs. hardcore infrastructure projects... he and his handlers know nothing of the latter, neither the utter importance, nor how to to set about anything in the real, UNforgiving world of Civil Engineering and Public Works. I'm not sure the nation has endured such a leadership vacuum since the mid 19th Century. __________________ "We live in a gangster state, and our days of laughing at other countries are over." --Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone

July 01, 2010, 11:56	#11
renaissance_warrior Registered FALaholic #: 13689 Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 8,558	Rutherford B. Hayes would be proud. __________________ "In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot." - Mark Twain “The government turns every contingency into an excuse for enhancing power in itself.” - John Adams "The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome becomes bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." ~ Cicero , 55 BC ~

June 30, 2010, 19:10	#3
motosapien Registered FALaholic #: 9349 Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: MN Posts: 2,176	People went out to the movies alot during the great depression. On the other hand, doing without cable works for maybe a year before the jones for the mindless buzz gets intolerable. I do hope your right though.........

June 30, 2010, 22:44	#6
MtnWulf Registered FALaholic #: 21997 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Appalachia Posts: 861	I think a better indicator is my local tire dealer. Bought a couple of new tires for the front of my work truck, he told me that he used to average selling 12 new tires a day, but for the past year and a half he only averages 6. His biggest business is selling and installing USED tires. He used to have a pile of them but they're almost all gone. When he sells new tires he can sell the used ones to someone, and sometimes he even sells the tires from THAT car to someone else. Also the excise tax on tires and components like valve stems from China has skyrocketed, and the poorer folks are being hardest hit by the increased costs.

June 30, 2010, 23:08	#7
gates Registered FALaholic #: 129 Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: phx az Posts: 10,427	I think Moto and Tuck have this dialed in - when people cant go OUT and spend they upgrade their lower level lifestyle conditions - theres a concept in sociology that basically states people will try to live at the upper end of their current circumstance - it had to do with low income people buying name brand foodstuffs but it applies here - the concept is the same - it gives the consumer the feeling of prosperity within the economic circumstances they find themselves in.

July 01, 2010, 00:23	#9
gates Registered FALaholic #: 129 Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: phx az Posts: 10,427	umm... exactly!

July 01, 2010, 16:17	#13
Nomad, 2nd Registered FALaholic #: 33115 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Nomadic Posts: 581	From what I've read... the 'trickle down' is responsable... People who were going out to eat Steak... Are now going out to eat fast food, etc. Everyone's 'bumped down a level'. This is replicated in vacations as well. (and I'm sure other consumer spending, it's just that the couple articles I've read focused on TV and vacations) As for myself... I just got a new place, Just got internet, the (VERY) little TV I watchcan be had off the internets.

July 01, 2010, 20:37	#14
renaissance_warrior Registered FALaholic #: 13689 Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 8,558	Dave, then that would maker me realign my raw analysis to new moves. Thanks for the input. __________________ "In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot." - Mark Twain “The government turns every contingency into an excuse for enhancing power in itself.” - John Adams "The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome becomes bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." ~ Cicero , 55 BC ~

July 04, 2010, 15:52	#16
juanni Registered FALaholic #: 2439 Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: up a creek in MT Posts: 8,407	My observation is based on Craigslist ads for used machinery, tools, motorcycles and such. Diligently looking at ads for the last 8 years in AZ, CA & Nevada, I have definitely noticed a drop in prices, more ads with "must sell" and more industrial quality machines that have already passed to the small timers or hobbyists that which are now being moved out of the garage and into CL. These people, anyway are liquidating non essential toys. Also what were bargains 2-3 years ago and would have been snapped up in minutes, now languish for weeks, only to be relisted with yet lower prices. ..............juanni

July 05, 2010, 03:14	#17
evan price Registered FALaholic #: 20480 Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: THE source for Ohio CCW => http://ohioccwforums.org/ Posts: 2,127	With regard to tires- I used to be a tire tech, and I still have lots of contacts especially when I pick up wheel weights, and am always scrounging for good used takeoffs. Where once you used to be able to find OK sets, or nice pairs, now you are lucky to find anything with tread on them at all, and lots worn into the belts. People are running tires until they blow nowadays. Used batteries are about impossible to find unless you are there when good ones come in. The U-Pull-It junkyards are booming again, and not just guys looking for hotrod parts. Alternators, starters, brake parts, lots of maintenance items sell out quick. Cylinder heads and trannies and whole motors are selling well. The junkers being brought in are nowhere near as nice as they were a few years ago, and scrap prices are staying high enough that there should be a lot coming through. What is coming in for junk is mostly junk. I used to be able to buy 2-3 cars a month that needed nothing more than a basic repair- fuel pump, ball joints, "Been sitting around & won't start", that sort of stuff. Now stuff is run into the ground before junking it. Same with lawn mowers. Used to get a trailer of mowers every summer- riding and push. Still finding them, but again, they are clapped out instead of just a simple repair. Americans have re-discovered the thrifty lifestyle. Even though it crimps my style to not be able to get nice stuff for trash prices, at least maybe this will be a long-term thing. The Bic Pen school of manufacturing needs to end. __________________ http://www.ohioccwforums.org/ Ohio's best CCW resource!

July 05, 2010, 07:57	#18
jdluton Registered FALaholic #: 3544 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Mich. USA Posts: 430	Re: A 'boots on the ground statistic' that bodes well Also, People are "going out" less and staying at home more. For the price of a night on the town you can have a month of Cable TV and internet to boot... __________________ You think health care is expensive now? Wait till you see what it costs once its free.

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