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Old August 17, 2017, 12:52   #51
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I completely agree with you, bubba, that an up and running machine and welding shop might be one of the best hedges for hard times. That, and the skills and space to produce most or even all of your own food needs would go a long way. Very few will accomplish either.
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Old August 17, 2017, 12:53   #52
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Who says you can't buy gas with it? And Colt .45s have even been known to loosen the grip of the occasional banker from time to time .

Personally I like firearms too, they're just tools of a not-too-different sort. But if I were speculating I'd say most folks are oversupplied with guns for the size of their ammo stash. This argues well for things like ammo.
A gun and ammo helps protect a man's ability to carry on with life until they come up with a new currency. If SS fails it will mean a change in currency is comming.
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Old August 17, 2017, 14:50   #53
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I'm curious why people think physical gold has any more "real" value than paper money, other than in some abstract historical sense that drives our perception of it? There is nothing wrong with paper currency, the problem lies with endless printing of it to cover up short sighted political schemes.
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Old August 17, 2017, 15:46   #54
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I'm curious why people think physical gold has any more "real" value than paper money, other than in some abstract historical sense that drives our perception of it? There is nothing wrong with paper currency, the problem lies with endless printing of it to cover up short sighted political schemes.
Isn't the idea of 'money' an abstraction, no matter what is used.

How much gold has been printed to excess?
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:00   #55
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Isn't the idea of 'money' an abstraction, no matter what is used.

How much gold has been printed to excess?
They went off the gold standard because there wasn't enough gold to cover the amount of script printed. If you are going to use something as money then you have to have enough to go around. There has only been about 4 billion ounces of gold mined in human history so how can you run the world on a gold standard with so little gold?

Edited to add.... http://tradingstocks.me/how-many-oun...-in-the-world/
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:09   #56
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Isn't the idea of 'money' an abstraction, no matter what is used.

How much gold has been printed to excess?
Yes and no.

Yes, it's conceptual in nature, you can't touch it, feel it or even smell it. But a thing does not have to be physically tangible to be 'real' in a certain sense of the world. Numbers are real enough, even complex numbers. Ya can't see or feel 'em but nobody would argue that they don't facilitate the forming of the physical world. Very few things would be possible without a robust numbering system, and that starts with putting words to things like 'one' and 'two'. Money is much the same with respect to it being essential to an economy.

When it comes to PMs the supply, at least historically has been limited. But there is nothing to say it will remain that way, to be honest the supply is only limited by what folks are willing to trade for it. In this it is no different than any other commodity. The other issue with using it as money is it lacks ready availability, to support anything other than a barter economy physical things like unscripted gold and silver simply don't cut it. Sure you can issue warehouse receipts, demand notes and things like that but at the end of the day there simply won't be enough to go around if the economy grows, and when it shrinks you will have deflation. Neither scenario is acceptable.

Which segues into the next point, is that the issue with paper money has always been fraud. Counterfeiting of paper money is easy when it's built into the system and the whole point of paper money is that the supply of it can expand and contract along with the economy. This would lead to price stability and facilitate long term planning which is necessary for a robust economy. Problem is of course that the issuers come to depend on the monetary increases that align with periods of robust growth and when that inevitably comes to a halt, even temporarily, they keep on printing. With all too predictable results.

True, gold has never been printed to excess that I'm aware of. But it has been acquired to excess, witness Spain in the 1500s. The larger problem with PMs is really short supply and we only need to go back about 90 years to see what that brought on.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:19   #57
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They went off the gold standard because there wasn't enough gold to cover the amount of script printed. If you are going to use something as money then you have to have enough to go around. There has only been about 4 billion ounces of gold mined in human history so how can you run the world on a gold standard with so little gold?
Sorry Jim, not exactly true. There is plenty of gold to back up any amount of currency in circulation.

It is the exchange value assigned to the gold that keeps it from being up to the task.

As an example:
4 billion ounces of gold at the current value assigned by the Fed, IIRC $42.50/oz., is only 170 billion USD. Not nearly enough gold.

Now, just divide the currency in circulation, M1, M2, M3(take your choice which is most appropriate) and divide by the number of Official Gold(that amount held by central banks, not privately) to arrive at the price for gold needed to account for the money supply.

If they put more money into circulation, the dollar exchange rate of gold to dollars would be adjusted.

The reason we don't have gold backed currency has nothing to do with not enough gold.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:25   #58
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It's what gets me about people saying SS is broke, are they saying the printing presses quit working? The numbers they started with no longer add up for SS but I doubt they will stop printing money to pay it. If they can't stand behind the full faith and credit to the seniors that paid into the system then the dollars will no longer have value.

I think it's a scare tactic to get folks to invest and save more because fact is inflation is what makes those on SS broke and this economy was built on inflation since they took us off the gold standard.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:28   #59
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It's what gets me about people saying SS is broke, are they saying the printing presses quit working? The numbers they started with no longer add up for SS but I doubt they will stop printing money to pay it. If they can't stand behind the full faith and credit to the seniors that paid into the system then the dollars will no longer have value.

I think it's a scare tactic to get folks to invest and save more because fact is inflation is what makes those on SS broke and this economy was built on inflation since they took us off the gold standard.
We'll know things have gone sideways when you get your SS money and the store or whatever won't accept it anymore.

Until then, it's good as gold.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:30   #60
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Sorry Jim, not exactly true. There is plenty of gold to back up any amount of currency in circulation.

It is the exchange value assigned to the gold that keeps it from being up to the task.

As an example:
4 billion ounces of gold at the current value assigned by the Fed, IIRC $42.50/oz., is only 170 billion USD. Not nearly enough gold.

Now, just divide the currency in circulation, M1, M2, M3(take your choice which is most appropriate) and divide by the number of Official Gold(that amount held by central banks, not privately) to arrive at the price for gold needed to account for the money supply.

If they put more money into circulation, the dollar exchange rate of gold to dollars would be adjusted.

The reason we don't have gold backed currency has nothing to do with not enough gold.
Nothing to be sorry about. all the ounces in the world at $1390 an ounce only add up to between 4 and 5 trillion. There is no way that the world economy could have a gold standard because inflation doesn't allow it.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:32   #61
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We'll know things have gone sideways when you get your SS money and the store or whatever won't accept it anymore.

Until then, it's good as gold.
I have my feathers numbered for just such an occasion...Fog horn Leghorn

Edited to add, what do you buy your gold with?
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:35   #62
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Sorry Jim, not exactly true. There is plenty of gold to back up any amount of currency in circulation.

It is the exchange value assigned to the gold that keeps it from being up to the task.

As an example:
4 billion ounces of gold at the current value assigned by the Fed, IIRC $42.50/oz., is only 170 billion USD. Not nearly enough gold.

Now, just divide the currency in circulation, M1, M2, M3(take your choice which is most appropriate) and divide by the number of Official Gold(that amount held by central banks, not privately) to arrive at the price for gold needed to account for the money supply.

If they put more money into circulation, the dollar exchange rate of gold to dollars would be adjusted.

The reason we don't have gold backed currency has nothing to do with not enough gold.
Of course. But now you are into a deflationary scenario, where what everyone owns loses valuation. While everyone seems to be fairly comfortable with what inflation means, deflation is arguably even worse as it tends to snuff out economic activity. Why buy anything at all if the value can only drop? What good are investments? How do you grow an economy like that?

Nope, the ideal situation is price stability. And this is where PMs go off the rails. To get around this problem back in the day land was used among other things. Banks issued script against it much as they did against gold. Useful land was perceived as something that would expand along with the economy, and in a largely agrarian economy with an effectively limited supply it worked for a time. Until the supply ran out that is. And creative folks found ways to defraud that system too.

What you want is stability. This is the best way to encourage folks to work and invest. In fact it's necessary otherwise there is no reason for people to do either one and nobody wins in a game like that.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:41   #63
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the 'full faith and confidence' of the people who rely on it.
Unfortunately, the bulk of people don't understand the situation enough to truly have the specified faith and confidence. Just blindly get through life relying on the black box of mystery paper which is traded with other equally uninformed people. Truly a failing of modern schools and parenting. Probably the biggest reason the can keeps getting kicked is too few people have any concept of the ramifications to speak out against it.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:43   #64
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Here is a chart of the rate of inflation since 1914(beginning of the FED)
Remember, inflation means your dollars buy less than they did the year before.

Note only a few times of deflation when your dollars are worth more relative to the year before.

Each condition has its problems.


I believe one of the FED mandates is to maintain the purchasing power of the currency.
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Old August 17, 2017, 16:47   #65
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Not a good chart, it's a year by year and doesn't show total inflation over all the years. I read somewhere that today's dollar is only worth 3 cents compared to 1914 dollars.
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Old August 17, 2017, 17:15   #66
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Not a good chart, it's a year by year and doesn't show total inflation over all the years. I read somewhere that today's dollar is only worth 3 cents compared to 1914 dollars.
OK, you shouldn't need a chart for that. I've heard a similar thing which would reflect the cumulative, compound effect of the numbers shown in the chart.

Your current dollars supposedly buy 2% of what they would buy in 1914.

Of course, none of us was alive and earning money in 1914, so going back to the beginning of your earning years would give you the impact on you of the theft of inflation.

And in reality, only saved dollars are affected. Current earnings spent immediately are little affected by the insidious inflation of the currency.
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Old August 17, 2017, 17:23   #67
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OK, you shouldn't need a chart for that. I've heard a similar thing which would reflect the cumulative, compound effect of the numbers shown in the chart.

Your current dollars supposedly buy 2% of what they would buy in 1914.

Of course, none of us was alive and earning money in 1914, so going back to the beginning of your earning years would give you the impact on you of the theft of inflation.

And in reality, only saved dollars are affected. Current earnings spent immediately are little affected by the insidious inflation of the currency.
I would say it's far more complicated than you posted but commend you for understanding. Inflation has a lot of variables including area and availability of goods. Is golds value due to inflation or availability? Who sets the price of gold and what effect does that price have on SS?
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Old August 17, 2017, 17:59   #68
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What you want is stability. This is the best way to encourage folks to work and invest. In fact it's necessary otherwise there is no reason for people to do either one and nobody wins in a game like that.
Of course price stability is what I want. The FED has failed miserably in the deliverance of price stability. In the second half of the 1970s, it is said the dollar lost fully half its purchasing power.

It doesn't matter whether I earn $1/week if it costs me $.75/week to live. I then have $.25/week to save and invest.
The only thing that has changed in my 45 years of working so far is the number of zeros after the 1. And that now the cost of living is a higher percentage of a much larger number.
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Old August 17, 2017, 18:02   #69
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I would say it's far more complicated than you posted but commend you for understanding. Inflation has a lot of variables including area and availability of goods. Is golds value due to inflation or availability? Who sets the price of gold and what effect does that price have on SS?
Whole books are written on this subject so, yes, those 4 sentences don't quite cover the subject.
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Old August 17, 2017, 18:06   #70
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Of course price stability is what I want. The FED has failed miserably in the deliverance of price stability. In the second half of the 1970s, it is said the dollar lost fully half its purchasing power.

It doesn't matter whether I earn $1/week if it costs me $.75/week to live. I then have $.25/week to save and invest.
The only thing that has changed in my 45 years of working so far is the number of zeros after the 1. And that now the cost of living is a higher percentage of a much larger number.
What hurt most people over those 45 years was their ability to adjust to inflation and deflation, they don't teach that in school. Property and intrest rates are a prime example, what property actually cost and the changing values. Which way pays you back better, buy one house and pay it off in 15 years or keep trading up as the value of your house goes up?
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Old August 17, 2017, 19:19   #71
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Unfortunately, the bulk of people don't understand the situation enough to truly have the specified faith and confidence. Just blindly get through life relying on the black box of mystery paper which is traded with other equally uninformed people. Truly a failing of modern schools and parenting. Probably the biggest reason the can keeps getting kicked is too few people have any concept of the ramifications to speak out against it.
I for one am quite sure of that.

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Of course price stability is what I want. The FED has failed miserably in the deliverance of price stability. In the second half of the 1970s, it is said the dollar lost fully half its purchasing power.

It doesn't matter whether I earn $1/week if it costs me $.75/week to live. I then have $.25/week to save and invest.
The only thing that has changed in my 45 years of working so far is the number of zeros after the 1. And that now the cost of living is a higher percentage of a much larger number.
Quite so and yes, they have failed. To give the devil his due the Fed didn't do it alone though, they had congress right behind 'em telling them how much to print. Although they probably would have failed in any case. The rationale for turning the whole thing over to a cabal of bankers was specifically to take it away from congress after the financial catastrophe of 1906 if memory serves. The thinking being that at least robber barons had an interest in continuing prosperity if only after a fashion whereas congress demonstrably had none at all.. But the truth is FedGov never really got out of the business of printing money, they just endeavored to make it look that way.
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Old August 17, 2017, 23:11   #72
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The Social Security Crash Is Closer Than You Think

Trust fund could go broke as early as 2030, but program already taking in less than it's spending

Social Security turned 82 years old this week and finds itself as sickly as many of the elderly Americans it serves.

Unless Congress acts soon, it will not be around in its current form for another 82 years — or even half that long. The Social Security Trustees forecast that the trust fund will go broke in 2034. The Congressional Budget Office projects an even earlier collapse, pegging it at 2030.

Continued: http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/t...han-you-think/
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Old August 18, 2017, 04:37   #73
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The Social Security Crash Is Closer Than You Think

Trust fund could go broke as early as 2030, but program already taking in less than it's spending

Social Security turned 82 years old this week and finds itself as sickly as many of the elderly Americans it serves.

Unless Congress acts soon, it will not be around in its current form for another 82 years — or even half that long. The Social Security Trustees forecast that the trust fund will go broke in 2034. The Congressional Budget Office projects an even earlier collapse, pegging it at 2030.

Continued: http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/t...han-you-think/
There is no trust fund, it's an accounting artifact and does not exist in any physical sense.
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Old August 18, 2017, 08:36   #74
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There is no trust fund, it's an accounting artifact and does not exist in any physical sense.
So, it's kinda like Bitcoin, then.
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Old August 18, 2017, 08:40   #75
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Same as a legal fiction aka us citizen.





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There is no trust fund, it's an accounting artifact and does not exist in any physical sense.
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Old August 18, 2017, 08:47   #76
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There is no trust fund, it's an accounting artifact and does not exist in any physical sense.
Well, I would proffer that the "trust fund" is the continued slavery of the population in perpetuity to continue to fund the past generations.

Most folks collecting social security don't seem to realize that they're spending my money, there's is long gone.

And, as population growth flatlines and declines, the ponzi collapses.
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Old August 18, 2017, 13:24   #77
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Well, I would proffer that the "trust fund" is the continued slavery of the population in perpetuity to continue to fund the past generations.

Most folks collecting social security don't seem to realize that they're spending my money, there's is long gone.

And, as population growth flatlines and declines, the ponzi collapses.
Well sure, but that ain't a fund now is it??!?
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Old August 18, 2017, 13:34   #78
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Well sure, but that ain't a fund now is it??!?
Nope, but it works as a fungible apparatus.


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Old August 18, 2017, 14:23   #79
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Well, I have only been on SS for three years so I haven't spent the money myself and my employers put into the system.
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Old August 19, 2017, 04:33   #80
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d. Current earnings spent immediately are little affected by the insidious inflation of the currency.
Bullshit.

Wages almost always lag inflation.
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Old August 19, 2017, 09:25   #81
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Bullshit.

Wages almost always lag inflation.
Nomad, if you read my statement carefully, you will see that I said 'current' earnings and 'spent immediately'. As in, if a person gets paid Friday for the previous weeks work and goes to the grocery store and spends it, there has been little inflation in that one and a half week period.

Over the course of six months or a year, the wage earner will most definitely feel the effects of the erosion of their earnings.

I fully understand what you are saying, I've been living in it for 45 years, including the late 1970s when raging inflation took away fully half the purchasing power of my earnings.
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