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Old September 04, 2018, 11:27   #1
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JP Morgan's top quant warns next crisis to have flash crashes and social unrest

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J.P. Morgan's top quant, Marko Kolanovic, predicts a "Great Liquidity Crisis" will hit financial markets, marked by flash crashes in stock prices and social unrest.
The trillion-dollar shift to passive investments, computerized trading strategies and electronic trading desks will exacerbate sudden, severe stock drops, Kolanovic said.
Central banks will be forced to make unprecedented moves, including direct purchases of equities, or there could even be negative income taxes.
Timing of when this next crisis will occur is uncertain but markets appear to be safe through the first half of 2019, he said.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/09/04/...al-unrest.html

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Old September 04, 2018, 13:02   #2
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Old September 04, 2018, 13:05   #3
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Country has a high level of confidence in the economy now so those that want it to fail come up with propaganda to try to break that confidence. It's not what they say, it's who is saying it.
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Old September 04, 2018, 14:56   #4
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Country has a high level of confidence in the economy now so those that want it to fail come up with propaganda to try to break that confidence. It's not what they say, it's who is saying it.
A high level of confidence has always been a warning sign to me. I'm in a hold position right now personally, this could turn to orange alert if the level of confidence continues to grow.
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Old September 04, 2018, 16:06   #5
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A high level of confidence has always been a warning sign to me. I'm in a hold position right now personally, this could turn to orange alert if the level of confidence continues to grow.
My condition orange is orange juice in vodka and frankly I havent been able to drink that in decades. I don't have money in the market and at my age I don't like the risk. If money does dry up then I will hope to get 8% on money market funds like I did years ago.
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Old September 04, 2018, 16:14   #6
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or there could even be negative income taxes
I'm certainly not studied up well when it comes to markets and money in general but WTF is a "negative income tax"? Is that like the Earned Income Credit where you get back more than you paid or do you get taxed on your negative income? Something entirely different?
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Old September 04, 2018, 16:15   #7
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I'm really thankful that me and my wife have worked off and sacrificed to get out of debt.

About the only thing we owe are utilities and I still owe for some medical bills, but they should be paid off within the next two months as long as nothing else happens to me between now and then.

It's a good feeling to not have that over your head.

I know that it's not really possible, but I hope to never have to borrow from anyone else ever again. And if I do, it will only be for a dang good reason and not something frivelous.

I don't have anything in the market. I've just been bracing for impact for a while now.
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Old September 04, 2018, 16:42   #8
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I'm really thankful that me and my wife have worked off and sacrificed to get out of debt.

About the only thing we owe are utilities and I still owe for some medical bills, but they should be paid off within the next two months as long as nothing else happens to me between now and then.

It's a good feeling to not have that over your head.

I know that it's not really possible, but I hope to never have to borrow from anyone else ever again. And if I do, it will only be for a dang good reason and not something frivelous.

I don't have anything in the market. I've just been bracing for impact for a while now.

If you really believe what I bolded in your quote, then you have not yet discovered what it is to be truly DEBT FREE. Sounds like you are almost there, but not quite. It’s not only possible, but the only real and defined way to truly secure your own financial future. I hope you reinvestigate the idea, and learn what I mean. Good for you for accomplishing what you have. Now finish it and sustain it.
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Old September 04, 2018, 17:29   #9
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My condition orange is orange juice in vodka and frankly I havent been able to drink that in decades. I don't have money in the market and at my age I don't like the risk. If money does dry up then I will hope to get 8% on money market funds like I did years ago.
There is risk being in the market. Being out of the market removes risk and makes it a certainty that you will not stay ahead of the structural inflation necessary to support the federal reserve system. Buying things like money market securities will reduce your losses overall as opposed to staying out entirely. But it cannot generate a net positive return for any extended period of time in a system such as we are ratcheted into.
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Old September 04, 2018, 17:42   #10
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There is risk being in the market. Being out of the market removes risk and makes it a certainty that you will not stay ahead of the structural inflation necessary to support the federal reserve system. Buying things like money market securities will reduce your losses overall as opposed to staying out entirely. But it cannot generate a net positive return for any extended period of time in a system such as we are ratcheted into.
I doubt I will outlive my money and if it all goes to hell with inflation then I know I wont. I have done everything I wanted to do pretty much and don't need much to live on. Putting my savings at risk this late in the game doesn't work for me. My investments are my collectables, if the world goes to hell they will pay off and if it doesn't go to hell then the value of my collection rises. Tangibles in my hands that are mine no matter what the banks do.
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Old September 04, 2018, 18:10   #11
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If you really believe what I bolded in your quote, then you have not yet discovered what it is to be truly DEBT FREE. Sounds like you are almost there, but not quite. It’s not only possible, but the only real and defined way to truly secure your own financial future. I hope you reinvestigate the idea, and learn what I mean. Good for you for accomplishing what you have. Now finish it and sustain it.
Been a couple of years now.

House is remodeled. 40 year (Metal) roof. Paid for. I don't expect that I'll have to go in debt for anything on it in my lifetime now.

About the biggest thing that concerns me is doctor bills and vehicles wear out eventually and need replaced and they're not getting any cheaper.

And on a fixed income, while we don't owe anything, saving is just as hard now as it ever was when we were raising kids and stuff. There is some savings, but would be grossly inadequate for anything major I'm afraid.
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Old September 04, 2018, 18:13   #12
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It's funny to me. The crew here including me has been talking about a financial crash for years. Yet now when the economy is cooking and things are starting to rock the fear is still there.
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Old September 04, 2018, 18:27   #13
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Originally Posted by bubbagump View Post
There is risk being in the market. Being out of the market removes risk and makes it a certainty that you will not stay ahead of the structural inflation necessary to support the federal reserve system. Buying things like money market securities will reduce your losses overall as opposed to staying out entirely. But it cannot generate a net positive return for any extended period of time in a system such as we are ratcheted into.
I'm not sure stepping out of the market during a crash protects ya. One could be in 100% cash (not in your matress, cash in a 401-K, IRA, etc) and it could still go poof.
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Old September 04, 2018, 19:06   #14
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I'm not sure stepping out of the market during a crash protects ya. One could be in 100% cash (not in your matress, cash in a 401-K, IRA, etc) and it could still go poof.
It doesn't, read it carefully . It removes all risk that you might avoid a loss and instead makes it a certainty. Cash is a guaranteed loser in the best of times and you don't have to postulate any sort of monetary crash to know it will depreciate by the real rate of inflation each year.

In fact a market retreat is when ya want to get in, when everyone else is barking about doom and gloom. Because that's when the stuff is undervalued. Simply put it's where the deals are.
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Old September 04, 2018, 23:23   #15
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Trump was right disasters are the best opportunities to pick up premium property at bargain basement prices. Hurricanes are good for buying also.
I really like global warming...
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Old September 07, 2018, 08:47   #16
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I hear they ran out of physical silver at the U.S. mint again....
People need to get a grasp on things...just because the economy does good for a couple years,doesn't exactly back-fill all the spending and debt accumulation accrued over the past thirty years. We are going to need steady growth rates for decades to create enough wealth to make this vacuum into anything close to a breathable environment. Even that might not be enough,were the deep staters to retake the lost ground.
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Old September 07, 2018, 10:47   #17
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Trump is just buying time. The unelected buearcrats that run this country are going to crash it simply because they think they are so smart and the voters are so dumb. Already they subvert the election and won't allow Trump policies to take place and even brag about it in the NYT. When Trump is gone these elite buearcrats are going to crash the country to get even with the stupid voters. The very idea yall think elections really mean anything will have to be quashed by the elite, they will teach you.

Remember Johnathan Gruber

he stated that "the American people are too stupid to understand the difference" between the two approaches, while in the other he said that the switch worked due to "the lack of economic understanding of the American voter".[38]

The elite would just soon there be no elections, people are too stupid to vote.
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Old September 07, 2018, 11:30   #18
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I hear they ran out of physical silver at the U.S. mint again....
People need to get a grasp on things...just because the economy does good for a couple years,doesn't exactly back-fill all the spending and debt accumulation accrued over the past thirty years. We are going to need steady growth rates for decades to create enough wealth to make this vacuum into anything close to a breathable environment. Even that might not be enough,were the deep staters to retake the lost ground.
Folks, listen up. The debt can NEVER be backfilled. It could not be backfilled back in 1913, the very moment we switched to FedRes. The first dollar ever created by the FedRes bank of NY created $1.05 worth of debt and since there was only $1 to pay it with, by definition it could not be paid off. Ever. No way, no how. Mathematically not possible. It can only be repudiated or sold to someone else (hello China, sucks to be you).

It has NEVER been possible to backfill the debt and so long as FedRes is in existence it NEVER WILL be possible. Again, it can only be transferred or repudiated. And we've had over a hundred years of this so saying that the debt by itself is somehow catastrophic to the economy cannot be true either.

So no, it ain't the debt. What it is is interest rates, the overhead on the economy that doesn't produce wealth in the form of goods and services. And of course the additional overhead of useless eaters who live off the rest of us.

It helps to remember that money is not wealth. It is simply the yardstick by which we measure it, and the grease that makes wealth move around. It is used to measure the thing but it ain't the thing. And wealth, real wealth will still be with those who have it when this or that money system is long gone.
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Old September 07, 2018, 13:14   #19
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Folks, listen up. The debt can NEVER be backfilled. It could not be backfilled back in 1913, the very moment we switched to FedRes. The first dollar ever created by the FedRes bank of NY created $1.05 worth of debt and since there was only $1 to pay it with, by definition it could not be paid off. Ever. No way, no how. Mathematically not possible. It can only be repudiated or sold to someone else (hello China, sucks to be you).

It has NEVER been possible to backfill the debt and so long as FedRes is in existence it NEVER WILL be possible. Again, it can only be transferred or repudiated. And we've had over a hundred years of this so saying that the debt by itself is somehow catastrophic to the economy cannot be true either.

So no, it ain't the debt. What it is is interest rates, the overhead on the economy that doesn't produce wealth in the form of goods and services. And of course the additional overhead of useless eaters who live off the rest of us.

It helps to remember that money is not wealth. It is simply the yardstick by which we measure it, and the grease that makes wealth move around. It is used to measure the thing but it ain't the thing. And wealth, real wealth will still be with those who have it when this or that money system is long gone.
My opinion is the only true wealth you have is your time here. Nothing you can possess can buy the time back you have lived but possessions are what you obtained for the time you spent getting them.
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Old September 07, 2018, 17:10   #20
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My opinion is the only true wealth you have is your time here. Nothing you can possess can buy the time back you have lived but possessions are what you obtained for the time you spent getting them.
Well in my opinion not exactly but you're getting closer. Or you might say since we all have the same potential amount at least when we hit the ground then the effect of time tends to cancel out when the talk turns to comparisons. But I agree with the sentiment, time is the one thing they ain't making more of.
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Old September 07, 2018, 17:32   #21
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Well in my opinion not exactly but you're getting closer. Or you might say since we all have the same potential amount at least when we hit the ground then the effect of time tends to cancel out when the talk turns to comparisons. But I agree with the sentiment, time is the one thing they ain't making more of.
Movie star Clint Eastwood in his role as William Munny said it's a hell of a thing killing a man, takes away all he has and all he was ever gonna have.

You have taken his time in life, the most valuable possession he has and he would give everything for more time. That's why time is the most valuable item we have in my opinion.
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Old September 08, 2018, 23:47   #22
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Oh,I don't think they'll ever pay back the national "debt". I was thinking more about upside down pensions and so-forth. We will,inevitibly,crash.
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Old September 23, 2018, 07:06   #23
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Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to their knees. Today, it could be a global debt of $247 trillion that causes the next crash.

After a decade of escalating US household debt brought on by low wages and the national debt more than doubling over the same time frame, to $21 trillion, debt could soon put the brakes on this economic recovery, analysts warn.
https://nypost.com/2018/09/22/next-c...ssion-experts/

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Old September 26, 2018, 21:50   #24
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My condition orange is orange juice in vodka and frankly I havent been able to drink that in decades. I don't have money in the market and at my age I don't like the risk. If money does dry up then I will hope to get 8% on money market funds like I did years ago.
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Old September 27, 2018, 14:06   #25
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I doubt I will outlive my money and if it all goes to hell with inflation then I know I wont. I have done everything I wanted to do pretty much and don't need much to live on. Putting my savings at risk this late in the game doesn't work for me. My investments are my collectables, if the world goes to hell they will pay off and if it doesn't go to hell then the value of my collection rises. Tangibles in my hands that are mine no matter what the banks do.
I'm with you jim. many/most follow the stock market habit and stay in the market. I've always thought it hard to find that place to get out but it does exist. I'm there and could give a fk about the market.
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