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Old February 09, 2014, 21:43   #151
longhair51
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I ordered a book, "EMP Attacks and Solar Storms, Expanded Edition", by Arthur T Bradley, Ph.d. Has anyone read anything from this guy?


http://disasterpreparer.com/empsolar-storms/
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Old February 24, 2014, 17:39   #152
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Starting to get at least a little media coverage.

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/justic...ine/index.html
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Old March 26, 2014, 18:56   #153
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Originally Posted by longhair51 View Post
I ordered a book, "EMP Attacks and Solar Storms, Expanded Edition", by Arthur T Bradley, Ph.d. Has anyone read anything from this guy?


http://disasterpreparer.com/empsolar-storms/
Just got it but have only had a chance to skim through so far. Doesn't look all that helpful as far as up to date advice on how to protect house circuits, etc. What is your take ?
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Old March 28, 2014, 17:10   #154
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The first half of the book is a little disappointing. It covers things that I, and probably everyone on the Files already knows. The second half is more interesting to me as it gets into the scientific hows and whys of emp science and theory. Faraday shielding is also covered.
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Old March 31, 2014, 19:56   #155
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Sorry for the silence, been busy as the following attachment will clue you in as to meeting issues
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org...2?f=must_reads
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Old April 09, 2014, 18:50   #156
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latest emp update, totally shocked(sic)..NK has capability. Of course they know the whole peninsula will be a parking lot if they do.

http://www.wnd.com/2014/04/dhs-study...3BZjrQixgXL.99
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Old April 09, 2014, 19:43   #157
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GREAT!! I check my cell phone everytime the power goes out, I grab my cell and see if it's toasted. Now even more warm and fussy good news!!
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Old April 11, 2014, 11:37   #158
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Watched part of an episode of MegaDisasters early this week. Topic:EMP. Essentially everything discussed here with an added explanation as to what happens to the atmosphere.

It destroys the ozone layer which in turn allows lethal levels of ultraviolet rays in an amount sufficient kill foliage, animals and PEOPLE. It will then create rain comprised of nitric acid which will all so burn plant, animal and people and greatly effect sea life.

But don't worry, eventually the nitric acid will dilute enough to become a great fertilizer.

So, my understanding at this time is unless you have a bunker deep enough and sufficiently supplied to last until the fertilizer kicks in you will not have a concern in this world. So, CHEER UP. You are not getting out of here alive! Are you prepared for what happens next?
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Old April 11, 2014, 14:34   #159
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Originally Posted by BamaFal View Post
Watched part of an episode of MegaDisasters early this week. Topic:EMP. Essentially everything discussed here with an added explanation as to what happens to the atmosphere.

It destroys the ozone layer which in turn allows lethal levels of ultraviolet rays in an amount sufficient kill foliage, animals and PEOPLE. It will then create rain comprised of nitric acid which will all so burn plant, animal and people and greatly effect sea life.

But don't worry, eventually the nitric acid will dilute enough to become a great fertilizer.

So, my understanding at this time is unless you have a bunker deep enough and sufficiently supplied to last until the fertilizer kicks in you will not have a concern in this world. So, CHEER UP. You are not getting out of here alive! Are you prepared for what happens next?
The ozone layer is a self healing layer of the atmosphere. Baring catalysts that change the O2 to O3 process, it will probably be only a matter of a few weeks before the ozone layer is replenished.

Still having some tubes of Coppertone might be a great barter item!
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Old April 15, 2014, 14:23   #160
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When I was a kid they set a nuke off high over Alaska. (Higher than the EMP would be set off). The aurora in northern Pa was amazing. You could see it in the snow on the ground. A real light show..
At EMP altitudes the hole will move and be rapidly filled in and then replaced with fresh ozone. The EMP event will be a single to maybe 4 devices. On a global nuclear exchange they will be hitting multiple EMP bursts over critical targets multiple times. Now that will be a different story because you have wide areas of ozone wiped out followed by debris coming into the higher altitudes from the ground bursts and chemical fires on the surfase that will finaly get into the upper stratosphere.
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Old April 21, 2014, 15:44   #161
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Peter Vincent Pry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, both congressional advisory boards, said the technology to avoid disaster from electromagnetic pulses exists, and upgrading the nation’s electrical grid is financially viable.

“The problem is not the technology,” Pry said. “We know how to protect against it. It’s not the money, it doesn’t cost that much. The problem is the politics. It always seems to be the politics that gets in the way.”
http://watchdog.org/138940/solar-flare-emp/
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Old June 15, 2014, 12:03   #162
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Headed to DC for a meeting. I am reviewing a 800 page document which I hope will make it out as an e-book. I will be meeting with the author, who has been asked not to release it.
Current issue are nuclear spent fuel rod storage ponds. (Oh, boy!)
Also will have an update on EMP surge protection in buildings.
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Old June 15, 2014, 13:44   #163
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That appears to be the case. Very sad state of affairs!
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Old June 15, 2014, 13:48   #164
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45,000 tons of spent rods currently on site in ponds.
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Old July 11, 2014, 19:54   #165
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I probably should start a new thread but figured to just put it here.
The nuclear data has been released. I know this guy and he is VERY good and spent ten years getting this info in a complete format. It is long ~800 pages but if you want info here it is.
www.nucprep.org
New info coming in on geomagnetic events. OMG!! They have techniques to check C14 ratios and can calculate solar storm intensities. Turns out the 1856 event was small (10%) of what can occur. Imagine electrical discharges from the stratosphere to earth all over the globe for days on end. We're talking Sci-fi stuff. Could spend hours discussing this but if a large flare does occur, our civilization is toast.
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Old July 12, 2014, 12:46   #166
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45,000 tons of spent rods currently on site in ponds.
The mother of all meltdowns! Shit, I wish I had popped for a Radius Engineering disaster shelter years ago when they were cheap. They used to make one called the sp6 or something like that and it was less than $20k if I remember correctly. Can't touch any of the newer models now. With enough money, survivability goes up, for a little while at least. Check this m-f out. Almost big enough for me and the missus.

http://undergroundshelters.com/products-page/ec50-10/

Yellowhand you had better throw another couple of feet of dirt on top of a thicker concrete roof than you are planning. On the same website they have some interesting notes on EMP shielding myths.

http://undergroundshelters.com/emp-shielding-myths-2/

Looks like shielding individual items with the right kind of aluminum or copper shielding is the way to go. But---Wrapping your head with tinfoil will do nothing except look funny.

Best of luck all,

Dave Dude
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Old July 12, 2014, 20:04   #167
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I probably should start a new thread but figured to just put it here.
The nuclear data has been released. I know this guy and he is VERY good and spent ten years getting this info in a complete format. It is long ~800 pages but if you want info here it is.
www.nucprep.org
New info coming in on geomagnetic events. OMG!! They have techniques to check C14 ratios and can calculate solar storm intensities. Turns out the 1856 event was small (10%) of what can occur. Imagine electrical discharges from the stratosphere to earth all over the globe for days on end. We're talking Sci-fi stuff. Could spend hours discussing this but if a large flare does occur, our civilization is toast.
Much thanks, C2A1. I'm looking forward to digging into it.
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Old July 14, 2014, 14:47   #168
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Enjoy. This is the first real up-date on nuclear issues including EMP for a long, long time. Talks about foods, radiation issues and includes how to protect your house from EMP surges etc. Kevin was an Air Force targeting officer so it's good. Even talks about making your own potassium Iodide medications. It really is a nuclear reference book. I did see one map that needs to be corrected but will get with Kevin on the 24th The myth section is great.
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Old July 14, 2014, 15:38   #169
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Thanks for the updatye - speaking for myself, I appreciate greatly.

I'm always on the alert for any updates to this thread !!!
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Old July 15, 2014, 07:10   #170
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My Generator Build Using Old Tech

I use clone generator heads from the 1920s era driven by a single cylinder horizontal diesel, hard to find now thanks to the EPA fanatics. These engines are found commonly in Asia pulling flat beds or boats. The ST generator heads were used primarily on farms in that era for producing AC power driven primarily off vertical diesels with large flywheels.

I like the ST series generator heads because they use self-excitation so no external power is needed, no PC boards either. I also utilized thermo siphon cooling so no separate cooling pump is required using an Honda Accord radiator.

I burn a combination of diesel and expired cooking oils. The mechanical injection system is easy to service. I am performing a bearing upgrade on the generator head in one of the foreground pictures. I can hand crank or electric start this diesel.

This is a good site for old tech power generation. Lister slow speed diesels run about 800rpm, Changfa's about 1600. A lot less
rpms compared to the modern screamers 3600 rpm purchased from HD and such. Lower rpm, less fuel.

http://listerengine.com/smf/

30HP Changfa diesel with photos and video:

http://listerengine.com/smf/index.php?topic=7024.0
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File Type: jpg Changfa12HP.jpg (246.9 KB, 31 views)
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Last edited by Highground; July 15, 2014 at 07:21.
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Old July 15, 2014, 17:02   #171
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Cool, I like this. Mechanical fuel injection especially.
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Old July 24, 2014, 18:37   #172
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Washington (AFP) - Back in 2012, the Sun erupted with a powerful solar storm that just missed the Earth but was big enough to "knock modern civilization back to the 18th century," NASA said.

The extreme space weather that tore through Earth's orbit on July 23, 2012, was the most powerful in 150 years, according to a statement posted on the US space agency website Wednesday.
http://news.yahoo.com/earth-survived...222404357.html
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Old July 25, 2014, 06:53   #173
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Are nuclear reactors vulnerable to solar storms?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...CTae_blog.html
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Old September 03, 2014, 20:33   #174
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There has been discussion about the border situation. See "ISIS threat" article at the website below.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/new-is...rticle/2552766
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Old September 04, 2014, 12:53   #175
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Bought the book from the www.nucprep.org site that C2A1 recommended. It's worth it's weight in GOLD. Lot's of practical and good info in it. Thanks C2A1!
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Old September 04, 2014, 14:03   #176
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These ponds are all cooled by means of pumps, all ran off electricity, seems we placed the means to our demise all over the planet.
I asked a family member about this as that individual works public utilities which operates nuclear powerplants. He is not a plant operator although he is familiar with the plants and the requirements. His answer was the situation here in the US is not as bad as fukushima due to a couple differences.
If I understood his answer correctly, one of the major differences here is the distance between the rods under storage.
Fukushima essentially took the cheap way out in terms of how the rods were stored, and it allowed them to, I'm not sure how to word this correctly, "react" with each other. Hence generating heat with the need to continually cool them via a water pool, also since they were reacting with each other, radiation was being generated and contaminating the cooling water.
Here in the US, the storage requirements are different with the rods being spaced a lot further apart, it is incredibly costly but they don't generate heat and don't require the cooling. Also they they are encapsulated via stainless steel or something along those lines and that also changes the situation for whatever reason.
Also the design there is different from what we have here and especially on the west coast. The containment portions on the west coast are massively overbuilt, partly due to earthquake concerns. Fukushima evidently didn't have near the same level of overbuild as we do here. Evidently due to a difference in regulation requirements or things along those lines.
He said it is partly what happened at Chernobyl, the containment portion was not up to the job, hence it's failure. Ours are built to a much higher standard.
There is another factor or feature of our plants, he said the best way to describe it to the average individual is our plants can go 'dormant' they are active but dormant for any practical purpose. And they can stay like that for a long time. He said, "think of it the same as a car engine at idle, yes it's running but not doing anything & it'll idle for a long time"
Now the concern part, he did not know for certain if all plants here in the US are built of the same generation as the plants on the west coast, if they are then the concern is greatly reduced. If they are whatever generation which preceded the stuff on the west coast, or if they have a particular design to them, then they are something to be concerned about.

Add edit: This is what information he gave me, again he is not a plant operator so I don't say this as gospel or the last word. There are likely those who are far more educated on these things than he might be, however he works next to a plant and also has daily dealings with it's operation and the people who run it. He is of the same mindset as we are, he sees what is going on and is concerned as well as to the potential liabilities these plants represent.
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Old September 04, 2014, 22:14   #177
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Yes, he is correct in that we in the US use spacing to help control the rods from obtaining criticality. They are stored in racks which contain boron 10 to help absorb neutrons. In a boil dry situation the lost water moderator also keeps the rods from going critical. However, in boil off, the heat comes from the daughter isotopic products which can degrade the Zirconium cladding. This is where the problem begins. The heat from radioactive decay is high enough to get the metals to react with oxygen in the air, resulting in a metal fire, kind of like thermite.
American reactors are very safe. Three mile island was a media circus. A great book is: Atomic Accidents by James Mahaffey. A great read. For example: The Japanese figured out what was going on Tinian. On Aug 8th, they made a raid on the nuclear weapons assembly hut. It is really a good book.
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Old September 05, 2014, 21:01   #178
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Intense Solar Eruption Captured by NASA Spacecraft
https://news.yahoo.com/intense-solar...110800186.html
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Old September 24, 2014, 21:16   #179
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http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/n...et-48-pct-2015
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Old October 24, 2014, 15:54   #180
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space stuff 9:10am ET

The largest sunspot in decades is pointed right at Earth

Scientists have detected the largest sunspot region in more than 20 years — and it's aiming solar flares toward Earth.

The solar flares from the sunspot could eventually turn into a solar storm and create a coronal mass ejection (CME), which could cause auroras and disrupt Earth's power grids. The sunspot cluster in question, AR12192, is "the largest sunspot group since November of 1990," Dough Biesecker, a researcher at the National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center, told The Washington Post.
http://theweek.com/article/index/270...right-at-earth
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Old November 06, 2014, 08:03   #181
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"Another "myth" that seems to have grown up with information on EMP is that nearly all cars and trucks would be "knocked out" by EMP. This seems logical, but is one of those cases where "real world" experiments contradict theoretical answers and I'm afraid this is the case with cars and EMP. According to sources working at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, cars have proven to be resistant to EMP in actual tests using nuclear weapons as well as during more recent tests (with newer cars) with the US Military's EMP simulators."

http://www.aussurvivalist.com/nuclear/empprotection.htm
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Old November 08, 2014, 19:51   #182
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There usually are more than one why to look at this potential disaster. One is what you are doing - gearing up and retro-fitting your domicile to withstand such an EMP assault in preparation for a worst case scenario. My question would be, how long can you last? At some point the fuel runs out, the food runs out, the batteries go dead.

OTOH, how affected will the Amish be? Their horses still plow. Their buggies still roll. Their cows still milk. Their chickens still lay. Their crops get planted same as always, as does the harvest.

Which is the better preparation?
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Old November 08, 2014, 20:50   #183
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Somebody's got a book out based on Amish "survival" skills, don't remember the name ,maybe one of the come ons on Prison Planet. I'd buy stock in Amish information.
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Old November 10, 2014, 10:31   #184
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Like the size of that conduit )
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Old November 15, 2014, 20:10   #185
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The Huckaby Show on Fox discussing EMP's tonight. Talking also about Nobama missing majority of daily security briefing. Why have a Presidential Security Briefing if the man doesn't even show up?
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Old November 15, 2014, 20:32   #186
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The Huckaby Show on Fox discussing EMP's tonight. Talking also about Nobama missing majority of daily security briefing. Why have a Presidential Security Briefing if the man doesn't even show up?
I'd rephrase that slightly...

"Why have a President if the man doesn't even show up?"

It's a rhetorical question...

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Old November 15, 2014, 21:37   #187
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The Huckaby Show on Fox discussing EMP's tonight. Talking also about Nobama missing majority of daily security briefing. Why have a Presidential Security Briefing if the man doesn't even show up?
You talking about Michele, she is supposed to be a girl?
Oh, her supposed husband, obammy, sorry about that!
I get confused with "modern" families............
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Old December 13, 2014, 09:30   #188
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Millions of Americans face catastrophic loss of electrical power during a future magnetic space storm that will disrupt the electric grid and cause cascading infrastructure failures, according to a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) document.

DHS’ Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) stated in an internal 2012 fact sheet outlining its response plan for severe “space weather” that the actual impact and damage from a future solar storm is not known.
- See more at: http://freebeacon.com/national-secur....RxM3wreN.dpuf
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Old December 13, 2014, 12:21   #189
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It would be interesting, would not wish to be anywhere near a large city.
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Old December 30, 2014, 19:20   #190
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Good friend passed away a couple of weeks ago. He was the one who found the effect of EMP on house wiring. Ran the last Air force EMP test. Bron would answer questions raised here. As the article says we lost a good one.

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org...s?f=must_reads
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Old January 08, 2015, 00:06   #191
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The Space Weather Prediction Center issued a warning for a large geomagnetic storm on Wednesday morning.

The NOAA organization said the primary areas that would be affected would be in the northern portion of the northern hemisphere.

Some of the storm's potential effects were power system voltage irregularities, possible false alarms triggered on security systems, and problems with GPS systems.

The storm could also impact spacecraft and cause orientation problems in satellites.
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/2778119...orm-hits-earth
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Old January 19, 2015, 18:20   #192
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Just stuff coming in FYI.

In the press report below, the Obama Administration continues their big lie that North Korea does not yet have nuclear armed missiles because they allegedly have not yet mastered warhead miniaturization. President Obama himself began this big lie amidst the 2013 nuclear crisis when North Korea was threatening to make nuclear missile strikes against the U.S. and its allies. DIA and CIA have both assessed that North Korea does have nuclear missiles, but Obama's creatures, including DNI Clapper, have suppressed this intelligence. Now Obama's DOD is trying to silence South Korea's warning that the North has nuclear missiles! This is one of the most egregious and dangerous examples of politicization of intelligence that I have ever seen. Like Bill Clinton before him, Obama is trying to escape responsibility for the fact that the North Korean nuclear threat has gotten much worse on his watch, and wants to continue unilateral U.S. nuclear disarmament toward "Global Zero" at a time when the U.S. nuclear deterrent matters more than ever. SASC and HASC should hold hearings on this and say so!

3) SEOUL, U.S. DIFFER OVER NORTH'S NUCLEAR TIPPED MISSILE TECHNOLOGY, Korea Times, January 9, 2015. The United States Defense Department said Thursday it has yet to secure specific evidence to prove that North Korea has attained the technology needed to miniaturize a nuclear warhead. The view was slightly different from South Korea’s latest analysis in its 2014 Defense White Paper that the reclusive state’s capability has reached the “considerable” level to make a warhead small enough to place on a missile…Washington’s assessment came a few days after the Ministry of National Defense released its biennial paper Tuesday in which it concluded that the North’s third nuclear test conducted in February, 2013, accelerated efforts to make nuclear warheads small enough to fit on ballistic missiles. “The North is believed to have secured some 40 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods multiple times,” the paper said. Korea Research Institute for Strategy senior researcher Moon Seong-mook said Seoul’s analysis was based on the general view that acquiring such technology takes between two to seven years, and eight years have passed since Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test. “Seoul produced the latest analysis as its defense ministry always needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario,” Moon said. “I believe South Korea and the U.S. both agreed that rigorous verification is further necessary to exactly assess the North’s nuclear capability…The think tank said it reached the assessment based on commercial satellite imagery taken of the Sinpo South Shipyard on the east coast between July and December.


In fact,North Korea has had missiles armed with nuclear warheads for years. And we know it. For example, see: Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, "Worldwide Threat Assessment" Statement before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate (Washington, D.C. March 14, 2011), p. 15. "North Korea Nukes Might Fit On Missiles, Aircraft," Global Security Newswire: NTI (March 14, 2011). "Spie Agencies Believe NKorea Has Nuclear Warheads" Agence France Presse (March 31, 2009). Interview with former CIA East Asia Division Chief Arthur Brown by Ruriko Kubota and Yosuke Inuzke, "DPRK Has Produced Small-Type Nuclear Warheads," Sankei Shimbun in Japanese (Tokyo: October 1, 2008) Fuji Sankei Communications Group.

Building a nuclear weapon and an operational multi-stage ballistic missile that can orbit a satellite in the first place, as North Korea has already done, is a lot bigger technological hurdle than miniaturizing a warhead, especially for EMP attack. See in my article linked below the section on "The Miniaturization Myth":

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org...-iran-tomorrow

Even South Korea in the article above is underestimating the nuclear missile threat from North Korea. Seoul assesses that developing warhead miniaturization technology "takes between two to seven years, and eight years have passed since Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test." But nuclear testing is not necessary for warhead miniaturization. Israel and South Africa both developed nuclear missile warheads without nuclear testing. According to the IAEA, Iran has been developing a nuclear missile warhead--and Iran has obviously conducted no nuclear test (that we know about, unless they have tested jointly with North Korea). Then DCI Woolsey testified to the Senate in January 1991 that North Korea had the bomb. So the clock for North Korea's development of nuclear missile warheads should start ticking in 1991, not 2006, which means the DPRK could have had nuclear armed missiles as early as 1993.

There is plenty of open source evidence to blow the Administration out of the water on its false and dangerous lie that North Korea is not yet a nuclear missile state. For example, see the article below:

May 22, 2013
Does North Korea Have a Missile-Deliverable Nuclear Weapon?
By Mark B. Schneider
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Abstract
According to a recent unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency report, “DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles.” The day the DIA report came out, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel stated that neither Iran nor North Korea is capable of attacking the U.S. with nuclear weapons. Despite the Obama Administration’s denials, however, there is every reason to believe that the DIA assessment is accurate. Indeed, on April 3, Secretary of Defense Hagel himself stated, “They [the North Koreans] have nuclear capacity now, they have missile delivery capacity now.” The fact is that North Korea has the potential to kill millions of people, particularly if there is a weak, ideologically driven response by the Obama Administration to a North Korean WMD attack.
A recent unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, revealed by Congressman Doug Lamborn (R–CO) on April 11, 2013, stated, “DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles.”[1] This is disturbing news.
The North Korean regime is one of the most fanatic, paranoid, and militaristic dictatorships on the planet. The “supreme leader” is virtually worshipped as a god. The population lives in abject poverty while the regime pursues a “military first” policy. North Korea has nuclear, chemical, and perhaps biological weapons and is developing missiles of all ranges.
While North Korea has long made occasional nuclear attack threats, the scope, magnitude, and frequency of these threats have vastly increased in 2013. These have included threats of thermonuclear attack on the U.S. and our allies, a verbal declaration of war, and a statement that the 1953 armistice has been terminated and that launch authority has been given to the military.
The Obama Administration immediately tried to walk back the DIA assessment. Defense News reported that “Pentagon spokesman George Little said ‘it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed, or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced in’ the intelligence report.”[2] The Director of National Intelligence, General (ret.) James R. Clapper, endorsed this statement.[3] Defense News also revealed that a “senior House Armed Services Committee aide told them that while the finding was unclassified, the Obama administration wanted to keep it under wraps.”[4 ]
The DIA assessment is not even really new. As Bruce Klingner of The Heritage Foundation writes, in 2011, DIA Director Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess testified that North Korea “may now have several plutonium-based nuclear warheads that it can deliver by ballistic missiles and aircraft as well as unconventional means.”[5] The assessment is quite credible. What makes the assessment far more significant today is that it must be viewed within the context of an unprecedented barrage of nuclear attack threats and belligerent actions from North Korea with no end in sight.
The day the DIA report came out, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel stated that neither Iran nor North Korea is capable of attacking the U.S. with nuclear weapons. Despite the Obama Administration’s denials, however, there is every reason to believe that the DIA assessment is accurate. Indeed, on April 3, Secretary of Defense Hagel stated, “They [the North Koreans] have nuclear capacity now, they have missile delivery capacity now.”[6 ]
Building a nuclear weapon small enough to be carried by the relatively large payloads of North Korea’s ballistic missiles is not a very difficult task because of (1) the vast improvement in computers and in high explosive technology over the last five decades; (2) the public availability of a vast amount of scientific data on both fission and fusion; (3) the U.S. declassification of a great deal of information on nuclear weapons technology; (4) the leak of vastly more classified information on nuclear weapons design; and (5) the proliferation of nuclear weapons designs by China and Dr. A. Q. Khan, the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb.
Downgrading U.S. Military Capabilities
The Obama Administration’s current position may very well be linked with its plans to radically reduce U.S. military capabilities in both the nuclear and the conventional arenas in the near future, starting with sequestration. From its first days in office, the Administration downgraded the importance of nuclear deterrence and cut missile defense. It is now standing back and allowing a large and rapid reduction in U.S. combat readiness due to sequestration, which is hardly the first and unlikely to be the last Obama Administration cut to defense spending.
The Air Force is now grounding at least 30 percent of its already old inventory of combat aircraft due to funding cuts. According to Secretary of the Air Force Michael B. Donley, “This week, eight fighter and bomber units ceased flying operations, and four additional squadrons will completely stand down when they return from deployment in the next few weeks.”[7] Donley added, “Flying hour reductions will halt training for the rest of the year in many units, and [it] will take up to six months to restore pilot proficiency.”[8 ]
The Navy also reports “Significant Training, Readiness, and Maintenance impacts” and lower levels of weapons procurement. The Army notes a “Readiness erosion” including “erosion of crew certification in non-deploying units.”[9] Planned aircraft maintenance will not happen, further reducing combat readiness and the time needed to restore it.
Procurement of weapons is being seriously cut on top of repeated cuts during the Obama Administration, the “procurement holiday” of the 1990s, and wear and tear on U.S. military equipment due to more than a decade of constant warfare. In congressional testimony in April 2013, U.S. Strategic Command commander General C. Robert Kehler stated, “As time passes, we will see greater impacts to the nuclear deterrent, global strike, missile warning and missile defense, situational awareness and space and cyberspace, and to our support for war-fighters around the globe.”[10 ]
Evidence from North Korean Defectors
The argument that there is no current nuclear missile threat to the U.S. from North Korea is based upon the dubious assertion that North Korean nuclear weapons are too heavy to be delivered by the North Korea ICBM that successfully orbited a satellite. This position is frequently taken by opponents of U.S. missile defense and nuclear deterrence both in the U.S. and abroad. For example, China Arms Control and Disarmament Association Research Department Director Teng Jianqun characterized the situation as follows: “To install a nuclear warhead on a missile, the weight of the nuclear warhead has to be less than 500 kg. North Korea’s technology is still unable to miniaturize its nuclear warheads.”[11 ]
Yet many of North Korea’s missiles reportedly carry a much larger payload. Moreover, a North Korean defector indicated in 2005 that North Korea had developed a 500-kilogram nuclear weapon.
North Korea was assessed to have nuclear weapons long before the actual (or at least detected) first test of these weapons in 2006. They have apparently made considerable progress in nuclear weapons modernization. Substantial evidence on the North Korean nuclear weapons program has been provided by North Korean defectors who have been interviewed in the South Korean and Japanese press. Little of this has been picked up by the Western media. Their statements appear consistent with the DIA assessment.
The highest ranking North Korean defector (1997), Hwang Jang-yop, said in 2003 that “he personally heard from Kim Jong-il (Kim Chong-il) that the communist country has developed nuclear weapons.”[12] In 2005, a North Korean defector who was a Deputy in the Supreme People’s Council reported that North Korea was building a small nuclear weapon weighing 500 kilograms.[13] A 500-kilogram warhead is probably small enough to be deployed on most or all North Korean missiles, and it is likely to have benefited from North Korea nuclear testing, which began in 2006.
In 2007, North Korean defector Pak To-il said that the first North Korean nuclear bomb was built in 1992, and he estimated the weight of the bomb at over one ton.[14] According to Pak To-il, information for making the bomb was obtained from Russia. He also said that by the year 2000, North Korea “had succeeded in miniaturizing the plutonium core from eight to six kilograms. The goal was four kilograms.”[15] He said the designed yield of the North Korean bomb was from four to 15 kilotons.[16 ]
In 2008, the Japanese press reported, “An engineer who escaped from North Korea” said he “saw a nuclear bomb in January 2001.” According to Japanese journalist Osamu Eya, who made it public, the engineer (an expert in explosives) said the nuclear bomb “was cylindrical and about one meter in both diameter and height.”[17] He reported “there was an electric cord wrapped around the top and bottom parts,” and there “were less than 60 ignition devices.”[18] It included “priming powder as well as plutonium, and there was a neutron launcher in the middle (made of materials) such as beryllium.”[19 ]
He is clearly describing a spherical implosion nuclear bomb. The dimensions he described are a good match for a warhead for the North Korean Scud and No Dong missiles.
Writing in 2009, former Secretary of the Air Force Thomas Reed and former Director of Intelligence at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Danny Stillman revealed that Chinese nuclear scientists told them that the North Korean nuclear bomb was “a descendant of the [Chinese] CHIC-4 design, provided [by China] to the Pakistanis more than a decade ago and then franchised by Dr. [A. Q.] Khan throughout the proliferation world.”[20] The bomb tested in 2006 was “probably a plutonium-based derivative of the ChIC-4….”[21] They believe the design yield of the bomb was 12 kilotons but the actual yield when tested in 2006 was only a half kiloton.[22] If the first North Korean bomb was based upon the Chinese CHIC-4 design, an early Chinese missile warhead, it is presumably the larger of the two bombs reported by Pak To-il.
North Korea’s Nuclear Test Program
North Korea staged its first nuclear test in 2006. It was assessed by the office of the Director of National Intelligence as a sub-kiloton weapon,[23] Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that North Korea declared it used two kilograms of plutonium in the 2006 nuclear test.[24] If true, this would partially explain the low yield. If the yield had been lower than expected, as was reported based upon Chinese statements to journalists, presumably North Korea redesigned the weapon to improve its performance. A second test was conducted in 2009. The yield of the second test was assessed by the Director of National Intelligence to be a few kilotons.[25] Notably, for both of these tests, many foreign yield estimates are considerably higher.
In 2012, the journal Nature reported, “North Korea may have conducted two covert nuclear weapons tests in 2010, according to a fresh analysis of radioisotope data.”[26] Lars-Erik De Geer, a Swedish Defence Research Agency atmospheric scientist, concluded that the two tests were “in the range of 50–200 tonnes of TNT equivalent.”[27] He believes that the tests may be related to the boosting of the yields of North Korean nuclear weapons.
Hans Ruehle, who from 1982–1988 headed the German Defense Ministry’s planning staff, has said regarding these two reported tests, “Several intelligence services believe that at least one of them was commissioned by Iran.”[28] According to the Times of Israel, Ruehle also said “a second North Korean test was also carried out that year on Iran’s behalf.”[29 ]
In 2013, North Korea staged its third announced nuclear test. Its yield has generally been reported at six–seven kilotons, although there are reports of as much as 20 kilotons.[30] Just prior to the test, General Jung Seung-jo, the Chairman of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that North Korea was likely to test a “boosted fission weapon,”[31] a technique involving the use of thermonuclear material for producing a smaller, more capable nuclear bomb and a key component of modern thermonuclear bombs. There are also reports that the test used highly enriched uranium (HEU).[32] If the yield of the North Korean test was really 20 kilotons, it could potentially have much greater implications for thermonuclear weapons development.
EMP and Enriched Uranium
Two retired Russian generals told the Congressional Commission on EMP that Russian scientists were helping North Korea to develop an enhanced electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon.[33 ]
General Kang P’yo-yo’ng of the North Korean Army has actually claimed that North Korea has “miniaturized and reduced-weight warheads.”[34] North Korea also claims to have tested them in its third announced nuclear test.
The generally reported estimate of 10 North Korean nuclear weapons may be low. It reflects estimates of how much plutonium North Korea has. Yet we know that North Korea also has an HEU program.
• In 2008, former Under Secretary of State and Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton characterized the North Korean HEU program at the Six-Party Talks as the “800-pound gorilla” at the negotiating table because of its implications for the outcome of the talks, which only sought (unsuccessfully) to eliminate the North Korean plutonium program.[35 ]
• In January 2009, then-U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated, “I think the intelligence community now believes that there is an undisclosed either imported or manufactured weapons-grade HEU in North Korea.”[36 ]
• In February 2009, CBS News reported, “The Dong A IIbo (East Asia Daily), citing an unnamed senior government official in Seoul, said South Korea and the U.S. were aware of the existence of an underground facility to produce highly enriched Uranium [in North Korea].”[37 ]
North Korea reportedly obtained HEU from Pakistan in a 1996 deal. Indeed, in 2008, the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo said there was discovery of “fresh traces of highly enriched uranium (HEU)…among 18,000 pages of North Korean documents” which were provided as a result of a deal reached in the Six-Party Talks.[38 ]
In November 2010, Siegfried Hecker, a former Director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a group of scientists were allowed to visit the North Korean enrichment facility. Hecker stated, “we saw a modern, clean centrifuge plant of more than a thousand centrifuges, all neatly aligned and plumbed below us.”[39] In December 2009, Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan said that North Korea, with Pakistani help, was enriching uranium with 3,000 or more centrifuges as early as 2002.[40] In November 2011, North Korea said that it had 2,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.[41 ]
Toxic Chemical Agents
Nuclear weapons are not the only type of WMD[42] North Korea has. In 2005, North Korea was estimated to have 2,500–5,000 tons of toxic chemical agents.[43] The U.S. has no in-kind deterrent to chemical weapons. The Obama Administration states that North Korea may still have biological weapons.
The Obama Administration dramatically reduced the U.S. deterrence of chemical attack in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review Report, which fundamentally changed policy with regard to nuclear deterrence of chemical attack. It stated:
With the advent of U.S. conventional military preeminence and continued improvements in U.S. missile defenses and capabilities to counter and mitigate the effects of CBW, the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks—conventional, biological, or chemical—has declined significantly. The United States will continue to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks.[44 ]
According to the report, retaliation against chemical attack would be a “devastating conventional military response.”[45] This is almost laughable in view of the enormous lethality differences between chemical and conventional weapons and the reductions that have been made in U.S. conventional forces in numerous Obama Administration cuts in military spending and sequestration.
De-emphasizing U.S. Nuclear Deterrence
The de-emphasis on nuclear deterrence in the Obama Administration is blatant. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel’s first statement to the Congress on the FY 2014 budget did not mention nuclear weapons or deterrence. The statement of General Martin E. Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had a single sentence on nuclear deterrence. The Administration even cancelled the launch of the Minuteman ICBM that was scheduled during the period of North Korean provocations.
Even before sequestration, the U.S. missile defense programs had taken numerous hits in the Obama Administration’s repeated large cuts in planned military spending.
• In the initial round of cuts decided on in 2009, a number of key systems (the mini-kill vehicle and the Kinetic Energy Interceptor) were killed.
• The defense cuts announced in January 2012 “mothballed” the large X-band radar that supported the strategic defense of the U.S. against North Korean attack and announced a considerable reduction in planned production of theater missile defense systems. As the Defense Department stated, “We reduced spending and accepted some risk in deployable regional missile defense and will increase reliance on allies and partners in the future.”[46]
• Ground- based interceptor procurement has been reduced to one missile in FY 2014. This directly impacts what we have available to counter North Korean nuclear threats.
• The proposed FY 2014 budget kills the program to develop space-based missile defense sensors.
The Obama Administration’s “nuclear zero” ideology does not impress North Korea. Indeed, it may have precipitated the unprecedented nuclear attack threats from North Korea. As U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron has recently observed, “trying to save money by just relying on the United States to act on our behalf allows potential adversaries to gamble that one day the US might not put itself at risk in order to deter an attack on the UK.”[47 ]
To be fair, concerns about U.S. willingness to respond promptly and effectively to WMD threats did not start with the Obama Administration, but it is clear that the Administration’s talk about nuclear disarmament contributes to these concerns. This is very risky. As Mark Halperin has pointed out, North Korea has the potential to kill millions of people. This is particularly the case if there is a weak, ideologically driven response by the Obama Administration to a North Korean WMD attack.
An Escalating Pattern of Threats
Will North Korea implement its nuclear threats? Despite confident predictions to the contrary, no one really knows. In recent years, the regime has engaged in two major military attacks on South Korea. It has clearly engaged in an escalating pattern of threats and may miscalculate the impact of further military action.
As Russian journalist Alexander Golts has pointed out, Kim Jun Un is a type of dictator who exhibits “total indifference to the fate of their own country and people…. If, God forbid, something were to happen, Chernobyl might seem a child’s fairy tale.”[48 ]
—Mark B. Schneider, PhD is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy and former senior official in the U.S. Department of Defense.
Show references in this report
[1] Reuters, “Pentagon Says North Korea Can Likely Launch Nuclear Missile,” April 11, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93A15N20130411.
[2] Agence France-Presse, “U.S.: ‘Inaccurate’ To Say N. Korea Has Nuclear Missiles,” Defense News, April 12, 2013, http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...clear-Missiles.
[3] Press release, “DNI Statement on North Korea’s Nuclear Capability,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, April 13, 2013, http://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroo...ear-capability.
[4] John T. Bennett, “Source: White House Wanted to Keep DIA Finding on N. Korean Nukes Under Wraps,” Defense News, April 13, 2013, http://blogs.defensenews.com/interce...es-under-wraps.
[5] Bruce Klingner, “North Korea May Have Nuclear Warheads,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, March 15, 2011, http://www.heritage.org/research/com...clear-warheads.
[6] “Remarks by Secretary Hagel at the National Defense University, Ft. McNair, Washington, D.C.,” April 3, 2013, http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/t...nscriptid=5213.
[7] Tyrone C. Marshall Jr., “Air Force Secretary Discusses $114.1 Billion Budget Proposal,” American Forces Press Service, April 12, 2013, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx? id=119768.
[8] Ibid.
[9] “Department of the Navy FY 2014 President’s Budget,” April 10, 2013, http://www.defense.gov/news/briefing...ingslideid=366.
[10] Cheryl Pellin, “Strategic Command: Cuts Erode Capabilities,” American Forces Press Service, March 13, 2013, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=119443.
[11] Song Liwei, “Just What Direction Will North Korea’s Nuclear Testing Take?,” Zhongguo Qingnian Bao Online, April 6, 2013, http://www.http://wnc.dialog.com/ind....simple_search.
[12] Yonhap, “‘Highest’ Defector Claims DPRK, Pakistan Concluded Uranium Enrichment ‘Deal’,” July 4, 2003, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[13] Mark B. Schneider, The Emerging EMP Threat to the United States (Fairfax, Va.: National Institute Press, 2007), http://www.nipp.org/National%20Insti...November07.pdf.
[14] Osamu Eya, “Analysis of Unusual North Korean Behavior—Unexpected Progress Made by North Korea on Miniaturizing Nuclear Weapons,” August 20, 2007, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Ibid.
[17] “DPRK Engineer Refugee: ‘I Saw Nuclear Bomb’,” Sankei Shimbun, June 27, 2008, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[18] Ibid.
[19] Ibid.
[20] Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express—A Political History of the Bomb and Its Proliferation (New York: Zenith, 2009), p. 261.
[21] Ibid., p. 262.
[22] Ibid.
[23] Press release, “Statement by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on the North Korean Nuclear Test,” October 16, 2006, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/odni101606.pdf.
[24] NTI, “North Korea Declares 31 Kilograms of Plutonium,” October 24, 2008, http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/north...-of-plutonium; KYODO News, “N. Korea Says Used 2 kg of Plutonium in 2006 Nuke Test: Source,” June 28, 2008, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2038037/posts.
[25] “Statement by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on North Korea’s Declared Nuclear Test on May 25, 2009,” June 15, 2009, http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/N...15_release.pdf.
[26] Geoff Brumfiel, “Isotopes Hint at North Korean Nuclear Test,” Nature, February 3, 2012, http://www.nature.com/news/isotopes-...ar-test-1.9972.
[27] Ibid.
[28] “German Expert Suggests Iran Tested Nuclear Bomb in North Korea in 2010,” BBC Monitoring International Reports, March 7, 2012, http://www.accessmylibrary.com/article-1G1-2824 11462/german-expert-suggests-iran.html.
[29] Raphael Ahren, “A German Nuclear Proliferation Expert Claims Pyongyang Performed Two Tests in 2010 on Iran’s Behalf, Contradicting Assertions by the US,” The Times of Israel, March 5, 2012, http://www.timesofisrael.com/report-...n-north-korea/.
[30] Robert Farley. “North Korea’s Nuclear Test,” The Diplomat, February 13, 2013, http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-b...nuclear-test/; “N.Korea Nuclear Test May Cause Volcano Eruption Near Chinese Border—Report,” Russia Today, February 8, 2013, http://rt.com/news/north-korea-nuclear-volcano-757/.
[31] Kim Eun-jung, “Military Commander Hints at ‘Pre-emptive Strike’ on N. Korea,” Yonhap, February 6, 2013, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[32] “North Could Use Uranium for Test; Tunnel Site Located,” Korea JoongAng Daily Online, February 5, 2013, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[33] Peter Vincent Pry, “North Korea EMP Attack Could Destroy U.S.—Now,” The Washington Times, December 19, 2012, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/19/ north-korea-emp-attack-could-destroy-us-now/?page=all.
[34] “Speech by ‘Korean People’s Army [KPA] General Comrade Kang P’yo-yo’ng,’ on Behalf of the KPA Officers and Men at a Pyongyang Municipal Army-People Joint Meeting Held at the Kim Il Sung Plaza on 7 March to Support the 5 March KPA Supreme Command Spokesman’s Statement,” Korean Central Broadcasting Station, March 8, 2013, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[35] Patrick Goodenough, “Denials of Uranium Program Could Jeopardize North Korea Nuclear Talks,” CBS News, July 7, 2008, http://cnsnews.com/node/15291.
[36] “ROK Daily: N.Korea Believed to ‘Possess Weapons-Grade HEU’,” Chosun.com, January 16, 2009, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
[37] CBS News, “North Korean Uranium Enrichment Issue Re-Emerges as Clinton Visits Seoul,” February 9, 2009, http://cnsnews.com/news/article/nort...ue-re-emerges- clinton-visits-seoul.
[38] “U.S. Troubled by Info about N.Korea’s Uranium Program,” The Chosun Ilbo, June 23, 2008, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...062361012.html.
[39] Associated Pres, “Scientist: North Korea Secretly Built New Nuclear Facility,” November 21, 2010, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/11...clear-facility.
[40] Bruce W. Bennett, “Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat,” The Rand Corporation, 2010, p. 16, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/documented briefings/2010/RAND_ DB589.pdf.
[41] James R. Clapper, “Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” February 16, 2011, p. 6, http://intelligence.senate.gov/110216/dni.pdf.
[42] Weapons of mass destruction.
[43] NTI, “North Korea Chemical,” February 2013, http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/...korea/chemical.
[44] U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p. viii , http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010...w%20report.pdf.
[45] Ibid.
[46] U.S. Department of Defense, Defense Budget Priorities and Choices, January 2012, p. 10, http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_...Priorities.pdf.
[47] David Cameron, “David Cameron: We Need a Nuclear Deterrent More Than Ever,” The Telegraph, April 3, 2013, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...than-ever.html.
[48] Aleksandr Golts, “Week’s Results. Waiting for End of World,” Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal, April 12, 2013, http://www.wnc.dialog.com.
http://www.heritage.org/research/lec...nuclear-weapon

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Old January 19, 2015, 18:43   #193
J. Armstrong
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Thanks for keeping us up to date - I know a lot of us really value and appreciate your info
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Old January 21, 2015, 11:29   #194
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Agreed, thank you very much. though after reading, I'm more concerned than ever.
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Old January 21, 2015, 21:09   #195
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plus 1, we live in a fragile world.
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Old February 02, 2015, 20:58   #196
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FYI.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/iran...2/01/id/621982
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Old February 02, 2015, 21:23   #197
yellowhand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C2A1 View Post
yepper, a blind man could see this one coming, these folks want to live in the 16th century, a win win for them to take us back several hundred years in the process.
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You may find me dead in a ditch one day, on my knees, but I will be up to my waist in spent rifle brass.

It ain't the firearms they are wanting to be rid of, its you!
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Old February 04, 2015, 20:01   #198
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http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/...r-bomb-n295606
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Old February 16, 2015, 20:43   #199
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http://www.familysecuritymatters.org...t?f=must_reads
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Old February 16, 2015, 22:36   #200
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yep!
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You may find me dead in a ditch one day, on my knees, but I will be up to my waist in spent rifle brass.

It ain't the firearms they are wanting to be rid of, its you!
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