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Old October 30, 2017, 06:32   #1
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Prices Keep Falling....

Ground Zero Precision had it's first pre-Christmas sale with this:

https://www.groundzeroprecision.com/...eid=08dbe01e9c



Looks liek they are sold out of the basic models...Makes me what deals may be comming down the pike for Christmas.
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Old October 30, 2017, 08:55   #2
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CMMG has similar guns for $399.. glad I did not invest in a lot of AR type rifles last year.
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Old October 30, 2017, 10:42   #3
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I'd be more interested in the name brand stuff. Colts and rugers have also dropped significantly.
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Old October 30, 2017, 11:15   #4
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Glad I invested last year and years before. Purchased a dozen Smith M&P 15's last year in half dozen lots last year. Paid $429 for first six and $399 for six between Christmas and New Years. Don't see Smith, Colts or other name brands going much below and had Hitlary won my guess is quality AR's would be a grand if could even find them. Purchased some in 2015 at $449 and at $479. My average cost currently is $450 per unit for Smiths bought on employee purchase. Don't see getting hurt too bad as name brand can only drop so far and still believe prices will go up sooner rather than later.

Figure in all the builds have under $200 total invested, others under $300 and nice rifles in the $400 to $800 range know if doesn't pay me will pay heirs well some day. Noveske Switchblock barrels are still selling in the $500 to $600 price range and White Oak Armament SPR/SDM barrels are still selling for $300 to $400 and believe if don't rag them out will hold their value, especially the ones that are still new in box. In a declining market you have to keep investing as never know when the tide will turn. Had Hilary been president especially following Las Vegas, AR's and all specialized accessories would be gone today.

Luckily was able to source three more Franklin Binary Firing System triggers right after Vegas for $292 and now they are $429 on their website with and 8+ week ship time. When the three arrived ordered two more from my vendor at $339 and between Slidefires and a pair of the binary triggers sold locally during the panic after Vegas during weekend Gunbroker pulled all listings had people willing to pay almost anything and every LGS was out as owner of one pulled all of his from inventory and took home. Only Slidefires I kept were AK as are no legal binary fire systems for them and between the two triggers and all my AR Slidefires managed to clear over $1,000 in two days before Gunbroker reversed it's policy.

When stocks are dropping the trick is to know when to sell short or keep buying. For me its keep buying and letting cost averaging do its thing. A few niche items have been good to me. Took some of my Slidefire windfall and invested in 60 round drum magazines for AR 15's found at a super deal and purchased myself a 50 round AR 10 drum magazine and took one of the AR 15 drums out of box. Rest are in original boxes and put in vaults. Just a matter of time before they shut down future manufacture. Bought a pile of the 25 round AR Stoner 6.8 AR 15 magazines plus a dozen 15 rounders during their recent sale. $8.99 with free shipping on 6.8 magazines was a "buy now" in my opinion. I don't see anyone who invested in name brand factory AR's for under $500 getting hurt if sit on long enough. Watching other niche items like factory 6.8 Mini 14's climb, Ruger and Remington 6.8 bolt actions climb as well due to low production numbers and already discontinued.

Keep looking at the $500 Colt snake guns in vault that are bringing $2,000 now. Purchased them because like Pony guns like SP1 AR's. Has price dropped on preban AR's? If had worried about price fluctuations in the late 70's and 80's would not have any SP1's. Recently sold a 98% Belgian Hi Power because offer price was $1,000 over paid price. Still have plenty of Hi Powers plus temptation to shoot and possibly scratch the near perfect Belgian is gone. I call it 98% because fired one magazine of ammo through it after purchased new but otherwise was not a mark or ding on it. The preban SKS-M's bought for under $100 because everyone wanted AK's or the cheaper SKS's sell for $900 in ban states. No pistol grip, no flash hider and bayonet comes off by drifting one pin. Unsure of their Cali status but glad I had foresight to pile them up because a bit odd and cheap.

Anyone not investing now is either a total genius or going to kick themselves later. Could have skipped Smiths at $479, $449 or $399 and then stacked heavy when able to get at $379 but had a run begun earlier would not have had in the box, factory guns to roll on market. Jury is still out but if Smith M&P's hit $349 to $359 will buy more and bring my average per unit price down again. Currently am at under $450 each average that are in valts as hedge for all heirs to have NIB rifles no matter future cost increases.

Have two builds grown tired of and no room in vault on consignment and will make at least couple hundred each if sell. One is at $400 built for under $200 and when took Slidefire stock off slapped a take off Smith stock got for free on it and without the slidefire just dont need so many 16" stock configuration parts rifles. Other is up for $900 and has a $390 retail barrel and can negotiate a bit to still make $200. Like the other, have so many 18" rifles need some vault room for the 24" WOA 5.56 builds, 13.7" and 18" Noveske 6.8 builds and the new 22 Noslers. Do not buy or build to resell but ocassionally tire of a gun or its value exceeds my desire to own. Wheel guns have climbed so much in recent years have sold several and 100% of money went back into other gun items. Traded two wheel guns for three suppressors before Trust laws changed.
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Old October 30, 2017, 13:07   #5
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Yesterday's $600 AR is now $400...... you get what you pay for. I won't pay any price for an inferior firearm.

That said, you can pick up Colts for very reasonable prices. DD has some nice deals on their complete rifles as well.

On that the flip side, the "retro" market has gone insane (A2 is h adding there along with A4). .... lots of guys getting nastalgic and building the rifles that they carried in the suck.
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Old October 31, 2017, 06:14   #6
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Mind defining inferior? Smith M&P 15's will run 20,000 rounds under abusive test conditions.

From late 1970's to early 1980's a NIB Colt SP1 was $425 if found a deal and as much as $495 based on features. Purchased my first CAR-15 at age 15 for $425 and that was a fair price considering places I was able to shop without a drivers license, was allowed to drive anywhere could get on dirt roads from age 12 to 15 which got me to one sporting goods/hunting outfitter and three hardware stores that sold guns. That rifle has more rounds through it than can count and would still take out the door into a unknown situation. Managed to buy a 20" with 3x scope and three prong flash hider plus an electroless nickle model that sold following a divorce where had to get money fast. Even in 92 people were paying top dollar for a AR 15 in Colt Guard hedging collector value that really hasn't peaked yet. Odd thing is can find them now on occasion for close to what sold that rifle 25 years ago. Negotiating on one right now as don't let deals on SP1's slip by.

Who cares if yesterday's $600 AR is now $400. Next administration change may be a $1,200 rifle. Today's $400 AR was $1,000 or more during Sandy Hook to right buyer. Was getting $900 for an SKS with 600 round tin of ammo. Pre ban AK's paid $125 for are $2,000 and up now. Never thought that would happen but glad I put several back. Doesn't matter what a gun cost a decade ago, right now or a decade from now. Buy it first only if have a desire for it. That way no matter which way market goes still have a gun you wanted. But like stocks/bonds, buying in a declining market (cost averaging) is a tried and true system. I play with guns because I like them.

Primary reason to stockpile is have a passel of nieces, nephews and 1st cousins kids that will all getting an AR and a handgun when estate is distributed. Recently purchased a home built AR on blem Palmetto lower for $200 that didn't function, owner was disgusted, his wife tired of him buying parts and swapping. Disassembled, reassembled properly and runs 100%. Bet he had $600 total in it considering box of parts he had tried that didn't fix his issue. Those parts are half of another junk box build. Next time running Cerakote will fix it's blemish issues and might double my money or more if decide don't want to store it long term.

Just like each niece, nephew and adopted son gets a Harley Davidson, all get an AR as well. Funny thing about motorcycles is like guns, if play the markets ups and downs can subsidize the hobby flipping a few on the side. Right now good running Shovelheads, low mileage Evo's and early generation Twinkies are selling $2,500 to $5,000 ready to ride home. 2002 through 2008 a Twinkie was $20,000 and nice Shovels/Evo's $7,000 to $12,000. '09 through '11 every construction worker or "instabiker" was selling Harleys for payoff before finance company reposessed. Bought one when guy got locked up over weekend and was in position to lose job if didn't show up for work on Monday. Paid his wife cash, she signed title which was in her name and put another in the stable for half what was current value because didn't have to wait on bank to open. Looking at a '99 Fatboy this week with under 900 miles. Owner let tires dry rot and won't crank due to bad gas and carburetor bowl full of shellac from evaporated fuel not drained when parked. Like the $200 Palmetto build that didn't run will likely buy it.

So I will keep buying name brand (Smith, Ruger, Colt, etc) bargain rifles and putting them back between builds. Will keep building rifles from take off parts left over when others upgrade base model rifles. Have two Harleys built from OEM parts people didn't want after addimg custom parts to their perfectly running factory bike. While companies like DD and some others have a following now, if they fold will be just another no name overpriced rifle. If want to pay that kind of money buy a SIG.
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Old November 18, 2017, 19:36   #7
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I'd be more interested in the name brand stuff. Colts and rugers have also dropped significantly.
I'm not a real Colt fanboy, but I have picked up two 6920s since the election. One day, another Dem will be in office, and we'll all be longing for the Good 'Ole Days.
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Old November 18, 2017, 20:40   #8
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^

Agreed.

These are the Good Ol' Days.
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Old November 18, 2017, 21:11   #9
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...These are the Good Ol' Days...
We haven't hit bottom yet. Wait until companies start filing bankruptcy and the liqidation auctions flood the market with product.
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Old November 18, 2017, 22:02   #10
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We haven't hit bottom yet. Wait until companies start filing bankruptcy and the liqidation auctions flood the market with product.
Already been happening via the Colt filing.
CDNN has been liquidating Colt Competition rifles and parts from Colt contractor, New Bold Ideas in TX.
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Old November 19, 2017, 02:35   #11
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Kind of reminds me of when FAL parts kits could be had for well under $100 for matching numbers kit and about $60 for non-matching number kits. Some of us have been kicking ourselves for not buying more kits when they were so cheap.

There are some brand names that seem un-effected by the resent market slump, like LaRue, Novesk, Les Bear, POF, DD, KNS. Most of the low price ARs are from relatively unknown makers. Then there are those in the middle like S&W, Ruger, Colt that prices have slipped but haven’t gone bottom barrel yet.

I’ve been picking up good quality AR parts lately. Mainly looking at Aero upper and lowers. And when I can find them LAR uppers and Lowers. Just picked up a LAR OPS4 upper for $250 which just last year were over $400 on Gunbroker.

Anything that is quality built/ made will hold it’s value. Cheap junk is still cheap junk no matter how much time passes.
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Old November 19, 2017, 02:58   #12
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Looks to be an interesting "Black Friday" this year. I figure there should be some great deals coming ...
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Old November 19, 2017, 03:30   #13
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Ammo needs to drop more - at the moment it's a printer, ink, paradigm!
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Old November 19, 2017, 08:53   #14
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Ammo needs to drop more - at the moment it's a printer, ink, paradigm!
Availability is up.

We've finally seen 762x51 for under 50c/r delivered.

Federal has their rebate program for another week or so.

No ammo complaints here, other than my pockets aren't deep enough to take advantage of it.
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Old November 19, 2017, 09:01   #15
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Sam Gabbert claims supply is getting low.
Best deal going with the boxer primed brass.
http://www.sgammo.com/product/308-wi...ade-pmc-south-
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Old November 19, 2017, 12:41   #16
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Yep,

We havent seen bottom. I give it another 6-7 months. There will be more shake outs. Currently only buying FN AR parts when I can find them.

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Old November 19, 2017, 14:05   #17
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Just keep in mind that this can all change overnight, literally...

In the quest for finding the bottom, don't avoid taking advantage of the great prices now.

Just sayin'...

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Old November 19, 2017, 19:02   #18
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Yep,

We havent seen bottom. I give it another 6-7 months. There will be more shake outs. Currently only buying FN AR parts when I can find them.

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Old November 19, 2017, 19:14   #19
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Just keep in mind that this can all change overnight, literally...

In the quest for finding the bottom, don't avoid taking advantage of the great prices now.

Just sayin'...

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This.

No guy who bought stock a few dollars off the bottom EVER complained as it went vertical.
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Old November 19, 2017, 19:49   #20
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We haven't hit bottom yet. Wait until companies start filing bankruptcy and the liqidation auctions flood the market with product.
That will not be the good ol' days.

Just like domestic oil prospecting and oil wildcatters going bankrupt and selling equipment for pennies on the dollar hasn't been great for oil prices to the end user.

Not exactly a one-for-one comparison, but the same thing will happen: there will be blood, and some people will take advantage. And then a few months later we'll all be sorry that Ruger is getting $1,500 for a rifle.
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Old November 20, 2017, 09:59   #21
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All of Colt Competition's parts are over at CDNN and Mag Tactical's left over lowers are at Centerfire Systems. Has not caused triggers to drop below the $29.99 price point except occasional weekend sales. I check about six sites once or twice a day known for clearing out lots of parts. Whenever see the super sale I dive in deep. Got the last of the $33 Mag Tactical billet lowers and price has eased up to $39 as inventory is down. When all are gone and Fostech fires up the machinery again am anticipating some improvements and design changes Ong with magnesium uppers being available again and will be priced with other quality billet receiver sets.

While White Oak Armament has the occasional sale the last complete upper saw "on sale" over there was $999. They blew out some upper receivers for $75 because of color match issue, not blems. Their barrels are still $300 to $400 and no issue with people willing to buy them. Noveske barrels barrels are still $400 and up and pushing $700 with Switchblock gas block and people still keeping them busy. ARP keeps their barrels at $200 to $300 and every run sells out in matter of a few days to a few weeks.

Palmetto and other "who knows who made it" parts companies will have cheap prices till market allows the lower tier companies to raise prices. Still think the Smith M&P 15 is best rifle for money out there, especially for neckbearding. That said, at LGS we sell as many or more over $1,000 AR's as under $500 and the $1,800 to $2,400 rifles are still strong.
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Old November 21, 2017, 02:12   #22
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We haven't hit bottom yet. Wait until companies start filing bankruptcy and the liqidation auctions flood the market with product.
Liquidations are typically bought out in volume, and who knows where those parts may end up, and when or how these parts will surface. Some minor lathe and/or cnc work can turn one company's misfortune into another company's source of parts for their own rifle/kit builds.
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Old November 21, 2017, 18:38   #23
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Like said above, prices are at bottom on parts. Strother companies reap the harvest of bankruptcies and sell parts at a profit to us.
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Old December 01, 2017, 20:44   #24
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I've been watching the price on Colt 6920s as sort of an index, and about a month ago, I saw a place in Ohio offering an OEM1 for $599, but it seems like prices are starting to creep back up a little.
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Old December 02, 2017, 16:52   #25
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I wonder if a Colt M4 marked complete lower for $259 is a good deal... about $130 premium over a PSA but again it is a Colt....
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Old December 05, 2017, 09:39   #26
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CDNN ran out of their Colt milspec triggers, ran a short special again on their Colt Match triggers and now back up to $50 each with new part number which leads me to believe stock is running low. Midway has deals going on their AR Stoner triggers at $22 and their stainless HBar fluted 22 Nosler barrels. Got another pair to send off for melonite so no worries about burning out throats. Just run and when accuracy falls off swap barrel and keep going. For my tactical 22 Nosler use the AR Stoner barrels when on sale are only way to fly as White Oak and others at $400ish are to expensive to smoke every 1,000 rounds if shoot often. Save the nice barrel builds for varmints and use the AR Stoner barrels to sling M855A1 pills at stupidly fast velocities and pitch every 1,000 or so rounds. Hope sending out for melonite gets 2,000 rounds out of them.

Found a couple deals on glass and one on night vision. Anyone seeing any real bargains from vendors other than Palmetto and the usual suspects that send out nag mail?
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Old December 05, 2017, 11:20   #27
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Anyone seeing any real bargains from vendors other than Palmetto and the usual suspects that send out nag mail?
These are a bargain, imo.

They drop to $99 when on sale, several times per year.
Were $99 on Black Friday, but $125 now.

I prefer 2-stage triggers in a rifle, but to each their own.

https://www.larue.com/products/larue...bt-2s-trigger/
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Old December 05, 2017, 12:04   #28
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$630 for a LE6921 14.5”, pinning muzzle device to make 16” and combining with $230 lower - will make a $860 complete LE6921 - not a screaming bargain but a good price IMHO.
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Old December 05, 2017, 12:49   #29
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Nice looking trigger set. Once install a creep and over travel screw triggers have almost zero of either. Prefer a single stage unless shooting off a bench. A two stage in tactical environment feels like a trigger full of creep. On bench it's nice to take up till sitting right on edge then break like glass at 2 pounds. The Colt Match Triggers getting down under three pounds with zero creep or travel. Use a heavier hammer spring for 3 pound pull on my tactical rifles but varmint rifles are getting the Colt Match triggers down to 2.5 pounds for varmint rifles using softer civilian primers.

According to spring set and labor willing to put in with hammer and sear jigs can get the milspec style triggers down in 2.75 to 3.0 with light hammer spring and 3.25 to 3.5 pound range with stiffer hammer spring for hard primers. The mass of a milspec trigger has issues but adds reliability to ignition of hard primers. It's easier to lower trigger pull with low mass hammers but then hard primers become an issue if shoot a lot of milspec ammo. So much so have almost stopped using CCI #34 and #41 primers so can run hammer springs in rifles that mostly or only shoot handloads.
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Old December 05, 2017, 19:11   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BM59 View Post
$630 for a LE6921 14.5”, pinning muzzle device to make 16” and combining with $230 lower - will make a $860 complete LE6921 - not a screaming bargain but a good price IMHO.
Dammit ..... There goes my next to pay days ^^^^^^^
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