Is Missouri prepared for earthquakes?

[Story]

http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs...plate=printart

Disaster tests show what would happen in extreme scenario.


Background reading on the New Madrid Fault Zone
http://quake.ualr.edu/public/nmfz.htm

[Bwana John]

Mid-Proterozoic failed aulacogen.

[Story]

Originally posted by Bwana John
Mid-Proterozoic failed aulacogen.

That's easy for you to say.

[Firestarter]

I live in the New Madrid seismic area. I would say that much of the information in the link that you provided while accurate is also grossly understated.

If one takes the time to read the accounts of the New Madrid quakes of 1811 1812 they quickly realize that many authors of these reports were living in places like the Carolinas or Virginia where the quakes effects were large enough even there to cause property damage.

There were very little people living in the New madrid area at the time. Memphis TN was not even on paper yet and was called Chikasaw Bluffs. The only structure close to present day Memphis was Fort Assumption and it had been abandoned by the time of the quake if I recall correctly.

The quake caused land to be thrust upwards in places and sunk in others by many feet. It caused the sky to turn black with eruptions of material violently expelled from the earth. The Mississippi River ran backwards and riverboat workers described feeling as if they had run aground as the vibrations from the quake were so strong. Huge masses of bank material crashed into the river.

It would make Katrina look like a waterpark in comparison. Many of the levee systems would be destroyed along with bridges and overpasses. Massive flooding in the Delta would occur resulting also in the spread of disease as clean water would be unavailable and superbrood populations of mosquitoes would be rampant if it occured in the warmer months. Vital lines of transportation would be cut off east to west. Gas lines running from south to north from Louisianna up into the midwest would be severed.

It will cause a huge economic blow to the country that might well trigger a second major depression.

In short the disruption that it could cause would be similar to having a nuclear weapon detonate, although the damage would be more widespread. The events of 1811 -1812 were from what geologists have determined one of the most violent events to have occured on the North American continent.

[Firestarter]

Here is a good map of recent activity. There is also a map index that will allow one to look at seismic activity in other parts of the US.

How does your local area look?

http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/rec...aps/90-36.html

[Bigger_Is_Better]

FireStarter, I'm closer than you are!! Wait, that's not something to be happy about. I'm about 50 miles north of New Madrid (real craphole of a town). Lets just say, the possible quake is the TEOTWAWKI that I prepare for. We'd get back to normal but I would say it could take decades in this area. Luckily I live in the hills. Just about 5 miles south of me it turns into flat sand. Miles and miles of nothing but flat sand. The water table is very close to the surface in that area. During the original quake that sand turned into a lake with several feet of water forced out of the ground. I've heard it said that if a quake of that magnitude hit, many of the larger buildings on that sand could sink by quite a bit. It'll be ugly, it's amazing how many people scoff at me for putting food and water back. When I tell them about the possible earthquake, they just roll their eyes. Oh well, I've got enough "toys" to keep them away from me and mine.

Aaron

[Powderfinger]

The New Madrid quake is IIRC the most powerful in the lower 48 thru recorded history. Of course, there where no siesmic monitors at the time, but this is the consenus of experts in the field. It was a series of quakes over a period of time which culminated in the big one.

[jimbeam]

Originally posted by Bigger_Is_Better
FireStarter, I'm closer than you are!! Wait, that's not something to be happy about. I'm about 50 miles north of New Madrid (real craphole of a town). Lets just say, the possible quake is the TEOTWAWKI that I prepare for. We'd get back to normal but I would say it could take decades in this area. Luckily I live in the hills. Just about 5 miles south of me it turns into flat sand. Miles and miles of nothing but flat sand. The water table is very close to the surface in that area. During the original quake that sand turned into a lake with several feet of water forced out of the ground. I've heard it said that if a quake of that magnitude hit, many of the larger buildings on that sand could sink by quite a bit. It'll be ugly, it's amazing how many people scoff at me for putting food and water back. When I tell them about the possible earthquake, they just roll their eyes. Oh well, I've got enough "toys" to keep them away from me and mine.

Aaron

It is called liquifaction. Saturated sediments such as sand lose their load bearing properties when shaken from an earthquake.

Do you live in Dexter?

[Bigger_Is_Better]

I'm in Cape Girardeau, straight north from New Madrid, Dexter is about 45min drive SW from here. My Grandparents live in Dexter.

Aaron

[ACCURRETT]

i used to live in a small town of less than 2000 people in misssouri called bismarck missouri. i think it was around 1997 or so we had a size 3 on the rickter scale earthquake. i was probably to busy shooting crows or some crap to feel it but we had one, so the map only applies to relatively recent quakes. But I remember that it shook up a lot of people in the surrounding area. especially since the valley mines is there and flat river (park hills for those staring at a map) and the mine shafts that are located there and underneath the local towns. It ought to be a wake up to missouri. Sh!t will hit the fan one of these days. All you can do is try to be prepared. I live north of there now but don't think i have ever forgot it.

[fuzzyfal]

well since my whole town is undermined. if a big one hits it'll sink faster than the bismark. and most of the buildings are not up to quake standards they'll be toast.i'll more than likey wind up downbelow as a mine shaft runs under my home.

[StrongMedicine]

To answer the questions, yes MO is prepared about as much as Louisiana is for Hurricanes.

[mrrk1562]

just recently i was talking to a cival air patrol officer from the chilliacothe ohio area and he told me that are working plans and drills for this same thing here with the cadets ..this is tornado pron area ..but they are making these plans ..this same person also said that home land sercurity has been taking over their localy raised funds with is used for ground search and resque training which entails flight training ..this conversation took place at a hovercraft rally held in chilliacothe ohio ..hovercrafts fly ..so he might of told the truth ..

[FAL freek]

I live in an area that is affected by the New Madrid fault zone. Even felt a few small tremors over the past couple years. The plates in the midsouth, and midwest areas aren't broken and fractured like they are out west in say California so the energy released from an earthquake will travel alot farther than out west. They just did a earthquake preparedness drill in Nashville not too terribly long ago so apparently at least some attention is being paid to the inevitable quake that will hit. Like Firestarted alluded to about Memphis when the quake does hit Memphis will be devestated. Alot of the buildings are old and brick not a good combination in an earthquake. St. Louis and Paducah will fare almost as bad I'd think. Especially Paducah with all those dikes and levees around the city that will probably fail.

[Sheridan]

I'm reading a work of fiction right now about a severe New Madrid quake.

The interesting thing is that the author used real, first-hand accounts of the 1811-1812 NM quake throughout the book.

If his fictionalized account is anywhere near accurate, (a temblor of 8.9), normal life in the central-to-southern Mississippi valley would be a long time returning, if ever.

The book's called "The Rift", and is by Walter J. Williams.

It's a long read (700+ pages), but winter's coming.

[Firestarter]

Here is recent activity in the area. One earthquake happened near me yesterday.

[TnHawk-45]

The National Guard in ALL the surrounding states have been table gaming this possibility for over a dozen years now. The results of ALL of them are the same.

Dead estimated at 2 MILLION plus.

Injured estimated at over 4 million.

Property damage as far away as Charleston SC south and NYC in the east.

Bridges over the Mississippi River that will be considered safe to travel over-NONE!

While "The Rift' is good for a look at what some may do the Book "8.4" is REQUIRED reading for ALL National Guard Officers involved in training for it.

Add to this the following problem the helocopters that were being depended on to move troops and relief supplies are ALL gone to Iraq. Same for most of the C-130's that were also being depended on.

For the last 3-5 years the Federal government has been playing this down to the general public they have been playing lip service to it to the State Governments. The results are the same.....New Orleans and Katrina will be a day in the park compared to if the New Madrid cuts loose again like the did 1811-1812 New Years.

Basically if it cuts loose the US will cease to be a world power.

[FAL freek]

Originally posted by TnHawk-45
Add to this the following problem the helocopters that were being depended on to move troops and relief supplies are ALL gone to Iraq. Same for most of the C-130's that were also being depended on.

I call bs on that. Most of the units you speak of that are east of the Mississippi have already been to Iraq and are in no immediate danger of being redeployed. Army or Air National guard.

[ggiilliiee]

I CANT GET NO.... LIQUIFACTION .........lets hope it doesnt happen .with all the brick work there ...youll make ole miss hurricanes look like a walk in the park ....although id love to see one of the "sand blows" that will come with it ...an acre or 3 of land going up in the air all at once ....gotta be fun ..... .........just hope the yellowstone geo -zit doesnt pop .. ...

[TnHawk-45]

Originally posted by FAL freek
I call bs on that. Most of the units you speak of that are east of the Mississippi have already been to Iraq and are in no immediate danger of being redeployed. Army or Air National guard.

OK and yes most units are back but they had to leave most of their aircraft there. What they brought back is in severe need of overhauling. While there are units still here in the US most of their aircraft are hanger queens and on the flight line in a down status.

To even get anywhere near the load capability that will be required it would take over 200 aircraft for Tn alone and we have NEVER had that many total in the entire state!

Some of us have been in the planning sessions the entire time and have seen the numbers.

[mosbysmen]

FF ,
i know for a fact that tn -hawk has been very involved a lot of high level national diasters planning..
MM

[FAL freek]

Originally posted by TnHawk-45


OK and yes most units are back but they had to leave most of their aircraft there. What they brought back is in severe need of overhauling. While there are units still here in the US most of their aircraft are hanger queens and on the flight line in a down status.

To even get anywhere near the load capability that will be required it would take over 200 aircraft for Tn alone and we have NEVER had that many total in the entire state!

Some of us have been in the planning sessions the entire time and have seen the numbers.

Got a good point there. I shoulda thought about the hanger queen status. Got a buddy that repairs helicopters that come back from Iraq and says they're rode hard and put up wet. Just curious as to where Ft. Campbell would fit into the equation. I watched a few stories about the disaster drill and wasn't that on a state level only? Ft. Campbell does have over 360 birds alone.

[TnHawk-45]

For planning purposes the birds at Ft Campbell were not counted on as they are in the process of deploying yet again plus the 101st is part of the two ready to go divisions. As we have found out though neither the 101st or the 82nd is ready to go in the time they were alloted during the first Gulf War. Things have not improved much since then either.

The ones that are planning looked at what aircraft that could be obtained in a quick manner. We looked at National Guard assets, Police assets, Life flight birds, and even News helocopters! Even the C-130's stationed in Nashville and we are still woefully short on assets.

For heavy lift trucks we even added in what we could obtain from state and county highway departments and even what busses we could get from where ever. Thing is even with all these there will be NO bridges that will be considered safe to cross until they can be checked. Most will be either severely damaged or completely gone. Even with the improvements they are doing to the I-40 bridge over the Miss River it will be severly damaged and using it will be severly limited.

Fully half the population of the US is in the area that will be affected if the New Madid fault goes off at 7.0 or higher. This will make Katrina look like a cake walk in comparison!

For personal planning take a look at your local area and see just how many bridges you have to cross everyday and you will see just how severly your travel will be limited. Now think about how many 18 wheelers have to come in everyday to resuply the stores where you live and how much groceries alone it takes to keep things moving and being fed. Yes the american public will be donating things from the unaffected areas, but it will not get here where it is needed anytime soon.

Fuel and food will be in VERY short supply!

Like I said read "8.4" by Peter Hernon to get a small idea what is possible.

[Papadoc]

In the 1980's my step-father (now deceased) worked for the State of Missouri as a bridge engineer (he was the #3 man in the Highway department and #2 in the Bridge Division at the time). He was called in to help rate the bridges in the event of a major earthquake at New Madrid. After a lot of research and testing, he concluded that a major earthquake along the New Madrid "fault-line" would result in absolutely NO bridges across the Mississippi River from US24 (Quincy, IL) to I155 (east of Caruthersville, MO), and none would survive on the Missouri east of KC. This also includes most highway overpasses/bridges on tributary rivers and railroad bridges as well, you would basically have to treat all bridges/overpasses as suspect until they have been inspected by the Highway Department (currently known as MODOT). This all had to do with the "stress-loading" of the bridges as designed, and that they would have to redesign and rebuild all bridges in the state to hope to save any, and considering the average cost of a bridge today, it is just not feasible.

[TnHawk-45]

Papadoc, that is why I keep stressing the point about the bridges as every bridge in the area is that way. Add to this the fact that with the bridges down and blocking the rivers that NO barges will be moving on them. This effectively cuts off more than half the of bulk transportation of goods in this country. Even the railroads will be cut off also.

To get an idea just how big an area this will affect get a map of the central US and look at the map scale. Using this scale draw a circle 250 miles around the SE boot heel of Missouri. This is the area that will receive SEVERE destruction. Now draw a circle 500 miles around New Madrid and this will receive moderate to severe damage. Now draw one 1000 miles around it and this area will receive some damage as well.

This is not just a one or two state problem but will affect the ENTIRE nation.

The last meeting I sat in on there were represenatives from 15 states there as well as folks from the US gov (ie FEMA, Homeland Security) and even the UN had a couple of folks there. When I say state Reps I mean there were Governors there and not just their flunkies.

Even with 12 years of planning we will be in the proverbial deep )*( on this one.

During the 1811/1812 quake it rang church bells as far away as Boston, Mass and Charleston, SC.

This is also in NO way like the California quakes as the ground underneath is different and reacts differently from out west.

[Diomed]

Is there any capacity to erect temporary bridges, such as with barges? If the barges aren't going to be moving due to the bridges being down, they could perhaps be repurposed...

[TnHawk-45]

They could 'if' the insurance companies and the lawyers would co-operate. That has been looked at as well as ferry's but there are not many ferry's around anymore.

Also some temp bridging equipment has been looked at but it will NOT be like a interstate bridge firmly in place. Speed would be restricted to 5 mph while crossing it and then ONLY essential supplies would be allowed to cross.

Unfortuanatly most things that need to be done NOW are being ignored as most of the money it would take is going elsewhere like Iraq. Even the US gov is playing it down because they do not or will not see the need until it is too late.

This is not one parties fault as BOTH parties have been in office while the planning has been going on.

Biggest problem is letting folks know how serious this threat is without the panic that would result. This would affect people, money, and a ton of other things.

New Orleans was a very good example of what could happen people wise. They were told to get out and you see what resulted. Now multiply that by a 100 conservatively.

[Firestarter]

Bridges won't be the only issue.

Most roads and highways will not be passable.

The most severely effected areas will be thrown into a pre-20th century existence.

Are we ready for that here in the zone? No. I know that I'm not and doubt many people give this more than a glancing thought.

It will take more than a BOB to weather survival here. Blood will be spilt also as people will become as animals.

I need to start preparing better, and think about moving.

[Papadoc]

And keep in mind that what I posted earlier is just for Missouri, you can add to this a good portion of the bridges as far south as New Orleans, east up the Ohio river (at least to the Indiana area), the Illinois river (possibly as far as Peoria, IL) and as far north as southern Minnesota. From what he told me, you can kiss Memphis, TN good bye as well as Cape Girardeau, MO and even a good chunk of St. Louis, MO. You might even see damage as far away as Chicago. New Madrid pops, it will be a major event with national repercussions. Pontoon bridges will be possible, if and only if you can mobilize the Military (National Guard, Reserves, and Active) and clear a path for them to get to the river (if it does not run backward for 3 days as it supposedly did in the 1811/1812 quake). When this thing popped in 1811/1812 people were knocked off their feet as far away as Charleston, SC so you can only imagine the amount and level of damage it would cause today. All I can say is keep your supplies ready and hope for the best, do NOT rely on .gov to save you and yours.


edited for typos

[Bigger_Is_Better]

Being in Cape Girardeau, I have a hard time trying to figure out how to prepare. My main worry is all of my supplies are in my basement. It'd probably take days to dig them out after a big one. We just had a new bridge built here a few years ago (maybe as many as 5). I believe it's supposed to be "earthquake proof." I seriously doubt that it would survive a big one no matter what the Gov. says. I need to find some land a ways outside of town to have some supplies stored. Then I need to convince the wife I need a deuce and a half to get us there. This is a very conservative area with MANY gun owners, I really wonder if that'll help or hurt the cause. I'd almost rather be where I'm one of a fewer number of armed people. Here everyone will be armed and desperate. Either way, it's not a pretty thought.

Aaron

[Bigger_Is_Better]

OH, and another UGLY thought is that my wife works at a Maximum Security Prison about 20 miles north of New Madrid. All those loose inmates....man, don't even want to think about it.

Aaron

[TnHawk-45]

There is nothing being said but I am wondering if the many New Mardid mini quakes could have affected the bridge in Minnisota? The almost constant jolting of it had to have some kind of affect on it.

[Bigger_Is_Better]

Surely not. The mini-quakes are minor enough I haven't actually felt any in years. I'm very close to all of them. As far away as the bridge is, I doubt if any vibration made it that far. I hope that's the case, because there are many bridges right on top of these quakes that I drive often.

Aaron

[Story]

Mississippi Delta earthquake: America's Haiti waiting to happen?

Scientists predict a Haiti-magnitude earthquake along the New Madrid fault during the next 50 years. The fault runs under the Mississippi Delta, one of the poorest parts of the US.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/201...ting-to-happen

[oncas]

I am currently, also reading "The Fault" by Walter J Williams and am about 3/4 through it. It is a LONG! 900 +pages. Definetely not a book I cant put down,but there is a lot of written witnessing of the 1811/12 quake. In the book there is a story of a nuclear reactor. I wonder how many of these there are in the target area? Lynn

[bykerhd]

I seem to recall another major fault line running up the Hudson River Valley.
There are probably fault lines all over the continent that nobody has ever paid much attention to.
Maybe the "Big One" will NOT be in Kali.

Then there are those potential "Super Volcanoes" under Yellowstone and maybe still at Mt St. Helen ?

Quite frankly, at this time, there is nothing the scientists, the government, your priest, or you can do except make some preparations to survive.
And, then hope you actually don't just end up buried anonymously forever under a pile of rubble, or in a mass grave somewhere.
I don't plan to get too paranoid about it. With my luck, none usually, I'll get taken out by the first big event and miss all the fun.

[wall.e]

A little more food for thought..
.http://www.insc.anl.gov/pwrmapsmap/uni/ted_states.html

[TnHawk-45]

Link does NOT work for some reason.

I can tell you one thing about the nuclear reactors though as they did come up in the table gaming. ALL have standing orders to be shut down until they are told they are allowed back up. So now add NO ELECTRICITY for a big area of the mid US during a time of crisis when 99% of the folks depend on the boob tube for their entire life direction.

Now ask yourself one question, "Will the government be able to save me?".

[wall.e]

Couldn't get the link up direct, click on the link ,then click on the map tab ,then click on U.S. then any one of the dots will pull up the reactor sites.

[alphadog58]

+1 on what bykerhd said about a fault near the Hudson River valley. Another +1 on what FAL freek said about the tectonic plates and soils not being disturbed in the central and eastern US, unlike the west coast where tremors are numerous. A seismic event in the central US or east coast would have way farther reaching damage and consequences.

Larry

[ice9]

Would a large New Madrid quake affect the river enough for water action to heavily damage New Orleans, St. Louis?

[Story]

Originally posted by ice9
Would a large New Madrid quake affect the river enough for water action to heavily damage New Orleans, St. Louis?

The December 1811/January 1812 series of earthquakes caused permanent changes in the course of the Mississippi River.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone

I'd think a similar sized earthquake would at the least result in broken levees, severed water and gas lines & downed power lines.

[Bigger_Is_Better]

Reelfoot Lake was created.

http://www.reelfootlake.com/History%...oot%20Lake.htm

[Bubba FAL]

Up until a little over a year ago, I lived in Dyersburg,TN, which is smack dab in the middle of the New Madrid fault zone. We'd feel tremblors every now and then, but took it as a sign that pressure was being vented rather than stored up for the "big one".

Fact of the matter is, most folks in the area were more concerned about tornadoes than another earthquake of the magnitude that created Reelfoot Lake. Maybe it's because we had 4 tornadoes touch down in Dyersberg in one night (same storm that took out downtown Jackson) less than five years ago and there hasn't been a major quake in the area for many yrs.

[Bigger_Is_Better]

If you're talking Jackson Missouri, I was there when it happened. Golfball sized Hail!

[Colosseum]

Matt Bracken's "Foreign Enemies and Traitors" deals with a New Madrid earthquake. A pretty interesting (and scary) SHTF scenario.

[FIANNAFAL]

I live one hour west of Nashville. One mourning the whole house shook so bad that a picture came off the wall. What a way to start a day! Did not realize what it was until mourning radio talk brought it up during the drive in to work.

Wolf Creek Damn above Nashville is a earthen damn with problems of its own besides eathquake.
Bought both The Rift and 8.4 waiting on delivery.

[Bubba FAL]

Originally posted by Bigger_Is_Better
If you're talking Jackson Missouri, I was there when it happened. Golfball sized Hail!

Jackson, TN. A good portion of downtown was damaged/destroyed that night...

We were lucky, the 4 that touched down in Dyersburg the same night missed our house. We had one tornado that didn't touch down, but took the tops off the trees 1/2 mile from us. Only a couple years later, tornados got Carruthersville, MO and Newbern, TN. Made a mess of both...

[Bigger_Is_Better]

We came down from Cape Girardeau, MO, one year after that storm in Caruthersville. We were there to wire a giant house that had been rebuilt. The town was still having houses torn down at that point. It was about a year prior to that, that Jackson, MO, had it's downtown hit.

Aaron

[Story]

SAN ANTONIO (AP) -- Dozens of homes were evacuated in San Antonio after the ground below began shifting, creating crevices up to 15 feet deep and nearly splitting a nearby retaining wall in half, officials said.

About 80 homes were first evacuated on Sunday after residents in a northwest side subdivision reported that the ground was caving behind several houses. No one was injured.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...TAM&SECTION=US