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View Full Version : Heh - looks like the currency war just went HOT


gates
November 08, 2010, 22:09
13:13 09Nov10 RTRS-CHINA FX REGULATOR PUBLISHES RULES TO CURB SPECULATIVE CAPITAL INFLOWS
13:14 09Nov10 RTRS-CHINA FX REGULATOR SAYS IT WILL STRICTLY MANAGE COMPANIES' SHORT-TERM FOREIGN DEBT QUOTAS

gates
November 08, 2010, 22:14
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=171663

Bama Steve
November 08, 2010, 22:41
20:42 - Bama Steve pukes on spinning globe = all countries are splattered - some more than others - stay tuned and bring a towel or three . . .

gates
November 08, 2010, 22:51
It's gonna be an interesting November.

Bawana jim
November 08, 2010, 23:22
Best thing to happen would be for them to not do business with us, guess we would have to make things for ourselves.

jim

evan price
November 09, 2010, 01:34
They need our markets more than we need their tchochkes.

gates
November 09, 2010, 01:40
not if we default through devaluation - they are not stupid!

Dolvio
November 09, 2010, 02:52
They have true wealth stored in precious metals and a ton of other commodities. They have a manufacturing base and a billion customers. They have no debt.

*oh yeah, they're not tied up in treasury draining empire building wars around the globe either.

cpd109
November 09, 2010, 07:10
Gold is at $1429.
Silver is at $28.50.

Eric Bryant
November 09, 2010, 07:10
Originally posted by evan price
They need our markets more than we need their tchochkes.

We need their steel and rare-earth minerals.

motosapien
November 09, 2010, 19:51
Originally posted by Dolvio
They have true wealth stored in precious metals and a ton of other commodities. They have a manufacturing base and a billion customers. They have no debt.

*oh yeah, they're not tied up in treasury draining empire building wars around the globe either.

But they are very capable of making good old fashioned warfare with millions of soldiers. They could swarm over the borders of any number of their neighbors and be unstoppable. In comparison, we are a paper tiger and they know it.

douglas
November 09, 2010, 21:11
I think that they don't like it at all and gave us a taste of the future.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/09/national/main7036716.shtml

alant
November 09, 2010, 21:42
Why do you think we've been getting friendly with Japan, India and now Indonesia of late?

Those countries can provide the same goods as China.

Those countries have a population equal to China.

Those countries suround China on 3 sides and have virtually unassailable geographic positions.


Paper Tiger? Not really.
Militarily we control the oceans. NOTHING of significant value can traverse the seas unless the US Navy allows it.


China is going to swarm which countries with millions of troops? Vietnam? Laos? Myanmar (Burma)? Korea (North and South)? All I see is miserable terrain, poor infrastructure, hostile populations and lack of strategic objectives. Korea is the most important with the best infrastructure but it is a geographic dead end. With North Korea as an ally they could pull it off, but what does that get for China?

They aren't going after Russia or India, they can't get to Taiwan or Japan.

China currently has a near monopoly on some of the rare earth elements, but these have historically been a biproduct of other mining operations. It would take some time, but other suppliers will stand up if prices return.

Chinese industry is an economic house of cards. Government run banks loan money to state owned factories that produce products at zero or negative profit. They borrow money to pay off previous loans. The average Chinese citizen can only deposit savings in these government owned banks. Chinese masses are mostly poor subsistence farmers with an upper crust of poorly paid factory workers. China has a small percentage of middle class. They do not have a billion consumers waiting to buy Hi-Def televisions, automobiles or computers. They need to export in order to gain capital which is used to keep their whole system afloat. They have saved some of that income, but not all that much when you look at it. Cut off their exports and massive unemployment accompanied by social unrest will quickly follow.


http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=156&catid=11&subcatid=70
- Some define middle class in China as people earning more than $3,000 a year. As of 2002, there were around 100 million Chinese who fit this description and their numbers were increasing at a rate of about 20 percent a year. The income of the he top 10 percent of urban dweller rose from around $1,200 a year in 1995 to $4,600 in 2005.

- Only 15 million make more than $32,000 a year. Roughly 500,000 Chinese earn $64,000 a year or more, but it is hard to say for sure because hard figures are hard to come by. Among those that fall into this group are top bureaucrats, factory managers and land developers.

Dolvio
November 09, 2010, 23:49
May want to do some updates on your research:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/25/world/asia/25iht-25submarine.10349022.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-492804/The-uninvited-guest-Chinese-sub-pops-middle-U-S-Navy-exercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html

China's biggest problem is clean drinking water, but they can solve that with technology. Like that sling shot thingy, that inventor Kamen came up with.

The Chinese are hungry and lean the way Americans were at the start of the 1900s. They are going to prosper and boom and they will take the lead in global affairs. While we stagnated, they innovated. America has been brought down from the inside by banksters and their government stooges. Now they may try to start a war with China for not bowing to their central bank agenda.

gates
November 09, 2010, 23:53
Heh - someone besides me thinks that was a warning - yes! I believe it was!

Dolv - you need to study your Depressions my man - WHO is the current day analog to the U.S. in 1929? WHO is the Europeon analog today...

history does not repeat - but the phrase "This time it's different" seems a bit hollow in retrospect:-)

Dolvio
November 10, 2010, 00:11
I've been studying the Great Depression for the last 4 or 5 years. We're about to be laid low and the tread mill is moving to China.

Europe will become 3rd world and the USA will be speeding in the same direction. The students will go to Asia to study and learn their language and learn their technologies. (IF they decide to let them in) I somehow doubt they'll hand out the information as easily and stupidly as the west did.

*also have some masters work in Asian history. Lived in Japan almost seven years and traveled all over China. Studied with their students in Japan. They are intelligent and dedicated like machines. They are at the library from open til close. They are in the labs running experiments that America saves for masters and PhDs.

evan price
November 10, 2010, 02:50
Originally posted by Eric Bryant


We need their steel and rare-earth minerals.

Rare earth minerals, yeah. Steel- no. We have the capability to be self-sufficient in steel. Remember that we export most of our scrap to China. Eastern Eurpean mills are cheaper than US mills, which is what shut down most of our steel industry, NOT lack of ability.

Dolvio
November 10, 2010, 04:16
If we get into a shooting war with the Chinese I hope they will honor our "time out" as we tool back up.

TheJokker
November 10, 2010, 08:29
Originally posted by Eric Bryant
We need their steel and rare-earth minerals.
correct me if i'm wrong but china imports iron ore and produces steel. we do need their rare-earth minerals but they need our ore.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSPEK17842820091203

China's imports of iron ore for the whole of 2009 are expected to reach 600 million tonnes, up by more than a third compared with last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on Thursday.

In a statement, the ministry said total crude steel output was expected to reach a record of 571 million tonnes by the end of this year.

does the world really need chinese steel?

http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/New_Threat_from_China_Steel_070907.html

Steel imports from China that fall apart easily are making U.S. manufacturers and constructions firms more than a little nervous. Reports of failures during initial fabrication and questions about certification documents will mean closer scrutiny. The American and Canadian institutes of steel construction have already advised member companies to be vigilant and report any problems.

The biggest concern is hollow structural sections widely used in construction of skyscrapers, bridges, pipelines, office, commercial and school buildings. This high-strength steel is also commonly used in power lifts, cranes, farm equipment, furniture and car trailer hitches.

Chinese high-strength steel tubes and pipes are also a potential problem. They’re used extensively in power plants and in large industrial boilers, and must withstand enormous pressures and hellish heat around the clock for weeks or months on end. This kind of steel also is used extensively in scaffolding that's erected on building exteriors during construction or renovation, as well as for interior work.

Inferior high-strength steel could cause catastrophic failures of buildings, pipelines or in power plants' boiler tubing. This is a large worry for structural engineers who will be working overtime as states embark on what amounts to a crash program to shore up bridges, following the collapse of the Minnesota span over the Mississippi River. China is already seeing problems. A Chinese power plant exploded recently when high-strength steel tubing blew out, says Roger Schagrin, general counsel for the Committee on Pipe and Tube Imports, which represents U.S. manufacturers of these products.
we can easily compete with china if we make some critical adjustments.

TheJokker
November 10, 2010, 08:48
Originally posted by Dolvio
I've been studying the Great Depression for the last 4 or 5 years. We're about to be laid low and the tread mill is moving to China.

Europe will become 3rd world and the USA will be speeding in the same direction. The students will go to Asia to study and learn their language and learn their technologies. (IF they decide to let them in) I somehow doubt they'll hand out the information as easily and stupidly as the west did.

*also have some masters work in Asian history. Lived in Japan almost seven years and traveled all over China. Studied with their students in Japan. They are intelligent and dedicated like machines. They are at the library from open til close. They are in the labs running experiments that America saves for masters and PhDs. china has major problems. there population is aging at a faster rate than ours and they are a communist state with a billion uneducated peasants. ponder for a moment their entitlement problems...

http://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-predictions-for-the-next-decade-2010-1#china-doomed-1

STRATFOR'S TOP PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE: China Collapse, Global Labor Shortages, New American Dominance

China: doomed

"China’s economy, like the economies of Japan and other East Asian states before it, will reduce its rate of growth dramatically in order to calibrate growth with the rate of return on capital and to bring its financial system into balance. To do this, it will have to deal with the resulting social and political tensions," says STRATFOR's Decade Forecast.

It explains: "First, China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins."

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope." i've also spent some time in asia (two years in taiwan). granted the chinese are hard working but most of china is still very much third world. as they modernize inflation will become a major problem.

not only "can" we compete with china but we "must". rising prices in exports is only a temporary problem. from a long term perspective they indicate great opportunity.

ephv
November 10, 2010, 09:53
If you have not stocked up on ammo or reload components, do it now!

If you think food is going to go nuts, watch ordinance. There will be a rush like bread and milk in a hurricane.

Needing that necessary firearm? Get it.

If you have hesitated on prepping, you may be too late unless you have deep pockets because the time frame is compressed.

Get what you need now!

gates
November 10, 2010, 10:02
Yes Sir! time is indeed running short - sound advice.

Dolvio
November 10, 2010, 12:15
Originally posted by TheJokker
china has major problems. there population is aging at a faster rate than ours and they are a communist state with a billion uneducated peasants. ponder for a moment their entitlement problems...

http://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-predictions-for-the-next-decade-2010-1#china-doomed-1

i've also spent some time in asia (two years in taiwan). granted the chinese are hard working but most of china is still very much third world. as they modernize inflation will become a major problem.

not only "can" we compete with china but we "must". rising prices in exports is only a temporary problem. from a long term perspective they indicate great opportunity.

Oh I know they have their problems, but they won't hesitate to roll out the tanks again to crush any uprisings. It's sad to say "we can compete" with China when we've been the world leader in most tech for the past 100+ years. We gave it all away to the world for nothing. They will not return the favor. And there are 13 million new Chinese every year, and this with a 1 baby policy. Of course they abort most of the girls and that is going to come home to roost, but if I am in charge and I have half a billion angry men I'd point them at something and let them go. (before they came after me that is)

*and they are going to modernize rapidly. They aren't in debt, they've got surpluses to spend. Trillions of USD that are only going to lose value the longer they hold onto them.

**not to mention they are pretty much taking over Africa and it's resources.

Ricketts
November 10, 2010, 15:09
Originally posted by evan price


Rare earth minerals, yeah. Steel- no. We have the capability to be self-sufficient in steel. Remember that we export most of our scrap to China. Eastern Eurpean mills are cheaper than US mills, which is what shut down most of our steel industry, NOT lack of ability.

I agree BUT the ability is dying each and every day. The workers with the knowledge are in their 60's and are checking out. The college trained idiots in charge made us lay off the kids that were learning and sent the work packing because it made the bottom line look better.