PDA

View Full Version : Inflation vs Deflation


2barearms
October 16, 2010, 16:48
I'm reading the comments today by some of the Fed Chairs that seem to
be a little pessimistic about the pace of the economy. The talk is about mostly
deflation, but frankly unless it's a technical issue I don't see any deflation. It
would seem to me that deflation would technically be good for the working stiff
who's paycheck hasn't gotten any bigger but the cost of basics is still going up
and taxes are going up next.

Splain me what deflation is and why we don't want it.

I know what inflation is and what hyperinflation is caused by.

xtremerange
October 16, 2010, 17:22
If my dollar will buy more "stuff" tomorrow than it will today, I will not spend it. If no one spends their dollars in the expectation that they will buy more "stuff" later, the economy is destroyed.

It is a lot more nuanced than my brute force explanation but the above is the heart of the problem.

motosapien
October 16, 2010, 17:44
The devaluation of our currency has made most Americans examine what they are spending their treasure on. Many things as of late, don't seem like such a good value. Cable TV, cellular service, dining out, new cars or motorcycles or atv's, expensive vacations and so on.

That kind of across the board pull-back on discretionary spending is having an impact on employment and tax revenues. When you add in our ballooning debt, the interest payments soon to become unserviceable, it all becomes rather academic. Deflation is just as damaging to an economy as run away inflation. We seem to have some of each.

In coming months Americans who felt safe at the beginning of this mess will start losing their jobs. That will mark the beginning of the slide into full blow economic collapse. Government workers cannot support the economy by them selves.

2barearms
October 16, 2010, 18:34
Thanks for your input, I believe you both have addressed aspects of the problem.
It appears that our country is hoarding cash and PM's hoping for a return to
prosperity, but as the former happens it's strangling growth (inflation).

Again, we have the most intelligent gun board in the universe.

2barearms
October 16, 2010, 19:27
Just stumbled into this jewel:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/asia/17japan.html

The best lessons come from those living the problem.

This splains the whole deflationary model and the psychology that follows.

mitchellh
October 16, 2010, 20:07
Originally posted by motosapien
Government workers cannot support the economy by them selves.

Exactly, because they produce nothing. For them to be paid, private sector employees need to be paying taxes on their earnings. Problem is, a majority of these(private sector) people are out of works, due to the rest of the population cutting discretionary spending.

gates
October 16, 2010, 20:12
We have a credit driven economy - credit and money are fungible - if credit does not expand then the money supply does not grow - debts at interest cannot be repaid.

Currently, we are in a deflationary credit collapse (exactly like the first great depression) - BB is doing everything he can to stoke the inflation fires to avoid this as it destroys his clients - the banks - his Keynesian brain tells him he must urge congress to fill in the gap created by a collapsing consumer and that he must drive the dollar down to inflate away as much of the external debt as possible - unfortunately for Ben two things have happened - the rest of the world has said FUK YOU Ben! we have export driven economies and it has resulted in a currency war race to the bottom - the OTHER thing Ben loses sleep over is WHERE his POMO and TARP money has gone - he WANTED it to be lent out to reignite the FIRE economy - BUT - the DUMMY didnt model in debt saturation - we Americans are TAPPED - we're broke, those that would borrow CANNOT QUALIFY and those that can borrow say NO THANK YOU! so where did that money go...

Well, for the last 18 months or so it went into the stock market - the avg J6P investor left the mkt a long time ago - CNBS whines about this EVERY DAY - see, TPTB need bag holders - if J6P boycotts stocks they have nobody to unload to-
daily volume on the exchanges has been a small fraction of what it was pre crash and 70% of what volume there is is being created by BLACK BOX HFT!
and THAT volume is an illusion - witness what happened during the flash crash - the bid disappeared - thats what happens when there is no REAL volume - NO BID.

Now - BBs free money is going places he DOES NOT want it to go - commods - food and fuel - DIRECTLY reducing consumer discretionary spending...unintended consequences are a bitch huh Ben!

Gonna be a fun next few months...

Oh, BTW, if they keep this shit up - and I have ZERO reason to believe they will stop, we get the end game - a loss of confidence in the dollar and then - hyperinflation...

Then Hitler.

BTW - TODAY it was reported that the U.S. government borrows 37 cents of every dollar we spend - theres gonna be LOTS of pissed off leach fuks when we impliment our own brand of "Austerity" - got ammo...

motosapien
October 17, 2010, 08:19
Originally posted by 2barearms
Just stumbled into this jewel:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/asia/17japan.html

The best lessons come from those living the problem.

This splains the whole deflationary model and the psychology that follows.

Good read. Kind of creepy too because, that is what it is starting to feel like here. But there is a difference. We have deflated asset classes and wages but not deflated prices on food, rent, utilities, gas, cigs, beer. Prices on everyday items we need to live are going up. Taxes will be going up too.

Our economic virus seems worse than what Japan suffered from. We would be lucky to have their "quiet stagnation".

CG&L
October 17, 2010, 08:21
gates

If you had to take a guess, what would be your take on land and housing prices?

During the Great Depression, land prices went down to 5 cents/ acre which should be about $30/acre in today’s money. Housing followed roughly the same path
Keeping in mind that hyper-inflation will jack the price of fuel and food to astronomical levels, will non-essentials be affected?


Basically
Will hyper-inflation affect land and housing prices?

motosapien
October 17, 2010, 08:37
You won't see real estate recovering until there is demand. I don't see that coming for a long time. Their is already a glut of excess housing on the market and with boomers looking to sell their larger homes in exchange for condo type living the glut will be prolonged.

2barearms
October 17, 2010, 09:19
Originally posted by motosapien
You won't see real estate recovering until there is demand. I don't see that coming for a long time. Their is already a glut of excess housing on the market and with boomers looking to sell their larger homes in exchange for condo type living the glut will be prolonged.

It's hard to see the problem in Houston, while there is persistant unemployment
there are jobs available. Gasoline is fairly stable but still high in my opinion. Food
is definitely more expensive unless you're eating store brands. You get more house
here buying a new one built to your specs than a used one and used ones are selling
for around 2/3 of appraised value for the most part. Values for real estate here hadn't
bubbled like it did in Vegas, Cali and Fl so the market didn't totally deflate. We are
definitely in a deflationary spiral and the FED is downplaying the severity of it. As the pessimism and deleveraging gain momentum the very real risk of hyperinflation will
become evident.

festus
October 17, 2010, 09:43
Land always has value. Land fit for farming with a source of water has more value. Before gold, people fought for land. I had the choice of inheriting some land or allowing it to be sold and receiving whatever cash was generated, I chose the land. A Realtor that I do some work for on his rental homes said I was nuts for taking the land. He said that as an investment it was a bad choice, but I like the idea of having something physical to own that I may possibly have to retreat to if the SHTF.
He also said that he makes 20% returns on his investment homes. He buys distressed doublewides for 20-40 thousand each, throws some cheap carpet and paint in them, and rents them out for 800 a month. They are always worth the price he paid for them since he bought them so cheap, and the rent more than pays for the taxes, maintenance and utilities. I am looking for a deal like that, but the real deals are a closely guarded secret. The other problem is that you have to collect the rent, and be there when there emergencies. All those people losing their homes need a place to live. He started out this way then he went into developing residential communities that went bust, and a commercial strip that seems to be holding it's own. If it wasn't for his cheap trailers he would be bankrupt.

DABTL
October 17, 2010, 09:46
There is too much real estate at unrealistic prices. It will go down.

Mark to market rules were tossed to prevent too many homes coming on the market at one time. If the true value of housing is impacted, and it will be, by the coming onto the market of the repossessed properties all at once the market will be saturated. Hence a decline in pricing.

With the decrease in value the walk away from underwater loans will become more prevalent. Business dumps bad deals all the time. So will consumers. This will cause a further decline in value.

The banks are in a panic. The latest line of defense is the banks claiming the buyers are no good un-principled dead beats who have a moral obligation to pay for underwater loans. The Dallas News had a full page of this pap today.

Until the banks, the lenders and the poor investors in the CDO's and such reach a compromise with the borrowers about realistic values and payments it will continue.

motosapien
October 17, 2010, 10:33
Where we live, the private sector has always been anemic. Urbanologists some decades back identified many Northern industrial cities as "white urban ghettos". Starting at Billings Mt and working to the East. Point being, here there are higher than usual numbers of government workers and people on welfare and other forms of assistance. So our local economy looks on the surface to be in decent shape.

But any well reasoned person who has lived here for some years knows that this region does not support itself. Without government payrolls and assistance programs, it would revert back to that white urban ghetto. And, of course it will because government on all levels is sinking into insolvency.

I was out getting smokes early this morning and noticed an obese woman pumping gas. She had a Dept. of Natural Resources wind breaker on and was carrying concealed beneath it. She will be amongst the last to take a hit to her income but I'll bet very soon she stops wearing her official coat except when absolutely necessary in public.

2barearms
October 17, 2010, 11:11
Originally posted by motosapien
Where we live, the private sector has always been anemic. Urbanologists some decades back identified many Northern industrial cities as "white urban ghettos". Starting at Billings Mt and working to the East. Point being, here there are higher than usual numbers of government workers and people on welfare and other forms of assistance. So our local economy looks on the surface to be in decent shape.

But any well reasoned person who has lived here for some years knows that this region does not support itself. Without government payrolls and assistance programs, it would revert back to that white urban ghetto. And, of course it will because government on all levels is sinking into insolvency.

I was out getting smokes early this morning and noticed an obese woman pumping gas. She had a Dept. of Natural Resources wind breaker on and was carrying concealed beneath it. She will be amongst the last to take a hit to her income but I'll bet very soon she stops wearing her official coat except when absolutely necessary in public.


At some point the Europeon Model will set in here, this happens when the private sector
fails and the circle becomes Corporate-Government and there is little to no entreprenuer
activity because taxes, permits, fees, lawsuits and unions smother any attempt to
break free of their grip. So ultimately you end up with a working class-political class
structure and of course the ultra wealthy. This model is of course failing in Europe, but
we're usually 20-30 years behind their system. This may be what is being referred to
as the Post Capitalist period.

gates
October 17, 2010, 11:12
I think I would research land value histories in HYPERINFLATIONARY depressions
such as Weimar or Argentina - we're not going to have another deflationary depression this time - China is:-)

motosapien
October 17, 2010, 14:39
Much of Europe is far less corrupt than DC, the Mediterranean & France not with standing. Socialism is working better in Northern Europe where a majority of the people support and believe in it. It will never work here because our corporations and politicians are money grubbing syphilitic whores compared to their European counterparts.

okiefarmer
October 17, 2010, 14:56
But one only has to consider that one never really owns land free and clear, even when they think they do. I own land and feel good about it, have water on several places, one just farm ground. What I don't like is the fact that all one has to do is not pay taxes on it for a few years and it will soon be someone else's land. It's a bit more involved than just buying it for the taxes owed, but still a rip. States could increase property tax on us "rich folk" to aid their income stream, and take the land in the process when we can't pay the ownership fee.

Ain't life grand here.

2barearms
October 17, 2010, 15:26
Originally posted by okiefarmer
But one only has to consider that one never really owns land free and clear, even when they think they do. I own land and feel good about it, have water on several places, one just farm ground. What I don't like is the fact that all one has to do is not pay taxes on it for a few years and it will soon be someone else's land. It's a bit more involved than just buying it for the taxes owed, but still a rip. States could increase property tax on us "rich folk" to aid their income stream, and take the land in the process when we can't pay the ownership fee.

Ain't life grand here.

Here in Texas, you don't pay tax on ag worked dirt, just houses on said property.
But you are quite right, if'n the world went to hell and no one could earn dollars
and you fell behind on your taxes it would definitely go to the state. This should be'
our goal politically from here on out, get rid of property taxes.

Skilter
October 17, 2010, 22:27
Originally posted by 2barearms


Here in Texas, you don't pay tax on ag worked dirt, just houses on said property.
But you are quite right, if'n the world went to hell and no one could earn dollars
and you fell behind on your taxes it would definitely go to the state. This should be'
our goal politically from here on out, get rid of property taxes.

Uh... good luck on that one. The only one who doesn't pay property taxes is Caesar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h59mDlBSt7o&feature=fvw

gates
October 17, 2010, 22:47
sigh... that is why if you cannot carry it you do not own it! THAT is why KD is wrong about gold.

Skilter
October 17, 2010, 22:55
Now that I got that out of the way... think of it this way...

You want to create deflation to encourage exports because our crap is cheaper than their crap due to the currency exchange. If that doesn't work then you MUST turn internally... What do you do?

Print more money? More money means more dollars... more dollars means what used to be 10 bucks is now 20 bucks because they doubled the amount of dollars in the system (theoretically)... Now... that sucks if you are holding a dollar, but if you are holding an asset, then hey... hmmm... not so bad right? So imagine this...

You are a big bank holding assets that SUCK in today's dollars. Ole BB has not been able to devalue the dollar to enough to spur economic growth for exports and other goods to other countries so that people like you and me can get better jobs, pay our taxes and still pay our mortgages/taxes/carloans/etc... OR say ... Hey... a cheaper TV... COOL... Well, its not so cool if no one is buyin' or hirin', right? How is everyone going to pay back those loans? Hmmm...

So. what do you do if you are Ben B ... you go to PLAN B and INFLATE... double the money supply (theoretically) ... now... everyone that is holding ASSETS (especially the BIG banks and large corps) have an asset that has just doubled. If the dollar is worth 1/2 as much then your assets are worth double what they used to be (theoretically), right?

That is why you are seeing the investors run to gold and commodities and things that have a hard usable value... things that A) are solid tenable goods and B) are of traditional value. See... when the dollar devalues and things are inflated... you will increase just on the basis of the currency itself.

Many people in our generation tend to focus to intensely on the growth of an investment over time based in the currency of the dollar. This is for good reason. The dollar has been the world reserve currency since WWII... now that this fact is in question, you must revert back to traditional laws of supply and demand... Most people cannot equate that if an investment goes down by 10%, but their currency is down by 100%, that they just made 90% on their investment as long as it is only considered in their own currency of which the investment was made. This is why gold is considered a hedge in times like these...

Too tired to write any more or fix spelling errors ... YMMV


Edited for this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=838UuoWavwc&feature=related

gates
October 18, 2010, 00:51
Skil - get some sleep then re-write that! you have a BUNCHA shit wrong.

TheJokker
October 18, 2010, 06:55
a period of managed deflation is a good thing...

dollar fall sparks stability warnings (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5505a7f0-d7c2-11df-b478-00144feabdc0.html)
The dollar index, which tracks a basket of currencies, reached its lowest level this year.

A senior European policy-maker, who asked not to be named, said a further aggressive round of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve would be “irresponsible” as it made US exports more competitive at the expense of its rivals.

Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist for BNY Mellon, said: “In narrow terms, the US is winning the currency wars as a weaker dollar will help its economy, but it could damage the other big economic blocs of China, Japan and Europe.”

if, as some feel, the root cause of the current recession/depression is an imbalance in the exchange rate between the dollar and asian currencies resulting in a massive shift of capital investment from the united states into china and other developing countries than the dollar must fall but not too fast.

think of it as a ten year plan during which the dollar drops to an equilibrium with the chinese yuan while the size and scope (expense) of the federal government decrease to a manageable level. if governmental change includes a shift from a socialistic agenda towards a pro-business agenda america will be poised to emerge from the economic turmoil "very competitive" globally.

think of it this way:

all the pizza parlors in your town are selling pizza for ten dollars. suddenly the chinese move in and are selling half way decent pizza for five dollars. there will be intense pressure to find a way to sell pizza near the five dollar price. america has to drop our prices to stay in business: the dollar and prices deflate...

2barearms
October 18, 2010, 07:33
Originally posted by TheJokker
a period of managed deflation is a good thing...

dollar fall sparks stability warnings (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5505a7f0-d7c2-11df-b478-00144feabdc0.html)

if, as some feel, the root cause of the current recession/depression is an imbalance in the exchange rate between the dollar and asian currencies resulting in a massive shift of capital investment from the united states into china and other developing countries than the dollar must fall but not too fast.

think of it as a ten year plan during which the dollar drops to an equilibrium with the chinese yuan while the size and scope (expense) of the federal government decrease to a manageable level. if governmental change includes a shift from a socialistic agenda towards a pro-business agenda america will be poised to emerge from the economic turmoil "very competitive" globally.

think of it this way:

all the pizza parlors in your town are selling pizza for ten dollars. suddenly the chinese move in and are selling half way decent pizza for five dollars. there will be intense pressure to find a way to sell pizza near the five dollar price. america has to drop our prices to stay in business: the dollar and prices deflate...



I'm ok with it as long as YOU get to explain the UAW, Teamsters, AFL-CIO
SEIU, CWA and any other libtard why they are now making $10 an hour and
a loaf of bread is $10, btw I looked yesterday and a decent loaf of bread was
almost $5 now. Meat is very expensive and about to go higher.

shlomo
October 18, 2010, 08:22
Originally posted by 2barearms
...btw I looked yesterday and a decent loaf of bread was
almost $5 now. Meat is very expensive and about to go higher.

Now THAT's what I call managing deflation. :wink:

It'll be okay, though, when the Chinee show up with $2 loaves, don'tcha know.

Skilter
October 18, 2010, 09:25
Originally posted by gates
Skil - get some sleep then re-write that! you have a BUNCHA shit wrong.


No I don't... Study the past... Study the Wehrmacht, Zimbabwe and 90's Japan (of which BB was the chief strategist on that issue back in the day). MACRO was the question not MICRO. When they couldn't get it right pushing outward, they turned inward. We are in the same boat when no one buys our treasuries any longer.

We are talking decades here, not months. At least that is my assumption in this argument...

Going MICRO ... Yes, get into gold, but the next play in late 2011 will be OIL. (yes, I make calls with my own money involved)

I have made 12% this year in M funds and ETFs. Anyone that has done better, I will listen.



Again... YMMV.

carguym14
October 18, 2010, 09:54
Originally posted by TheJokker
a period of managed deflation is a good thing...

dollar fall sparks stability warnings (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5505a7f0-d7c2-11df-b478-00144feabdc0.html)

if, as some feel, the root cause of the current recession/depression is an imbalance in the exchange rate between the dollar and asian currencies resulting in a massive shift of capital investment from the united states into china and other developing countries than the dollar must fall but not too fast.

think of it as a ten year plan during which the dollar drops to an equilibrium with the chinese yuan while the size and scope (expense) of the federal government decrease to a manageable level. if governmental change includes a shift from a socialistic agenda towards a pro-business agenda america will be poised to emerge from the economic turmoil "very competitive" globally.

think of it this way:

all the pizza parlors in your town are selling pizza for ten dollars. suddenly the chinese move in and are selling half way decent pizza for five dollars. there will be intense pressure to find a way to sell pizza near the five dollar price. america has to drop our prices to stay in business: the dollar and prices deflate...



What?No bulldozing of anything??


Can't wait to see what we will be producing that will make us "very competitive" globally..............you still believe in "green shoots"?

carguym14
October 18, 2010, 09:59
Originally posted by okiefarmer
But one only has to consider that one never really owns land free and clear, even when they think they do. I own land and feel good about it, have water on several places, one just farm ground. What I don't like is the fact that all one has to do is not pay taxes on it for a few years and it will soon be someone else's land. It's a bit more involved than just buying it for the taxes owed, but still a rip. States could increase property tax on us "rich folk" to aid their income stream, and take the land in the process when we can't pay the ownership fee.

Ain't life grand here.


There will always be someone around with money to buy up things.The last auction here for farm land brought over 7k an acre.No one local can afford it-some investor/s from Des Moines bought it (couple hours south of here) and will hire a farm manager to oversee the farming of it.This seems to be happening more and more around here.

Land prices might fall like in the 80's,but who really knows?You are right about your land being taken for taxes,but I think there will be someone out there to buy it up cheap.Lots of people in the first depression made a lot of money.

2barearms
October 18, 2010, 16:58
Originally posted by carguym14



There will always be someone around with money to buy up things.The last auction here for farm land brought over 7k an acre.No one local can afford it-some investor/s from Des Moines bought it (couple hours south of here) and will hire a farm manager to oversee the farming of it.This seems to be happening more and more around here.

Land prices might fall like in the 80's,but who really knows?You are right about your land being taken for taxes,but I think there will be someone out there to buy it up cheap.Lots of people in the first depression made a lot of money.

I paid 2k an acre for 27 1/2 acres 12 yrs ago and I wouldn't sell it for
less than 10k an acre if I'd sell it. I'm growing Chinese Tallow Trees and
have a process I've been working on to turn the biomass into fuel for a
Steam Turbine Generator. I suspect oil and electricity WILL be what craters
the rest of what's left of our economy. It's really what precipitated the
crash of 9-08.

gates
October 18, 2010, 19:50
Jokker the root cause is globalization and wage arbitrage! THAT destroys the middle class! - it results in wage stagnation, forcing the Fed to blow bubbles to fuel inflation (gotta know why they want it), ultimately, the biggest bubble of them all- the credit bubble, and they used housing as the vehicle - booooom! now we get to sit back and watch the aftermath but keep in mind, all the conditions that led us here still exist - they just have not figured out whats left to blow - they are trying with the stock and bond markets - it will end the way all the others have -

gates
October 19, 2010, 00:08
"the dollar and prices deflate..."

Your definitions are not accurate - if the Dollar gains strength (inflates in value) then it takes FEWER (deflation) of them to buy X.

Jokker- what you fail to realize is THIS: while this is GOOD for the average American consumer - it is DEATH to the banks - PERIOD! I am getting tired of trying to explain this! why do you think the FEDS policy is PLUS 2% inflation per year - WHY? for the LAST TIME - unless the money supply/CREDIT - SAME THING! expands each year - DEBTS - AT - INTEREST! CANNOT BE REPAID!

You are a SMART guy! put 2 and 2 together!

TheJokker
October 19, 2010, 07:26
Originally posted by gates
"the dollar and prices deflate..."

Your definitions are not accurate - if the Dollar gains strength (inflates in value) then it takes FEWER (deflation) of them to buy X.

Jokker- what you fail to realize is THIS: while this is GOOD for the average American consumer - it is DEATH to the banks - PERIOD! I am getting tired of trying to explain this! why do you think the FEDS policy is PLUS 2% inflation per year - WHY? for the LAST TIME - unless the money supply/CREDIT - SAME THING! expands each year - DEBTS - AT - INTEREST! CANNOT BE REPAID!

You are a SMART guy! put 2 and 2 together! sorry gates but how can the dollar be inflating in value when it is dropping relative to the euro and yuan? think of a balloon. if it inflates it grows in size. if it deflates it decreases.

if the the value of the dollar deflates most domestic prices also will ultimately deflate along with it. food prices are going up because food is becoming an american export and other countries are experiencing food shortages and have to buy american food driving up the prices.

sure deflation is potentially dangerous and rapid deflation can cause bank collapses which is why banks are sitting on money and not lending. this is a period of economic flux that must be endured by this generation. it's not going to be pretty but if we do the right things we can still come out on top relative to the rest of the world. aging demographics are in our favor over the next 20 to 30 years. we can rebuild our manufacturing base if we can decrease labor costs relative to the rest of the world. allowing the value of the dollar to deflate relative to asian markets is essential.

i have been beating this drum for nearly three years and so far it is happening as predicted. watch the euro see-saw downward again in a month or three...

gates
October 19, 2010, 09:56
Jokker - you are using the term "deflate" to describe the strength or weakness of the $ relative to the basket - thats not the proper way to describe what happens - if you inflate the MONEY supply you make the $ weaker by devaluation - the obverse is true. Credit=Money=$

shlomo
October 19, 2010, 15:37
Originally posted by gates

You are a SMART guy! put 2 and 2 together!

Wanna take that back now?

TheJokker
October 19, 2010, 17:45
Originally posted by gates
Jokker - you are using the term "deflate" to describe the strength or weakness of the $ relative to the basket - thats not the proper way to describe what happens - if you inflate the MONEY supply you make the $ weaker by devaluation - the obverse is true. Credit=Money=$

you are trying to take my usage "out of context". i have been quite specific about establishing my usage from the perceptive of "currency value".

consider the etymology of the word inflation (or deflation). deflate is a verb. to deflate. the "value" of the dollar is deflating as a tire deflates in pressure. i'm talking about the "value" of the dollar NOT the supply of dollars. if you inflate (increase) the supply of money you may also be deflating (decreasing) the value of money. if your understanding of deflation ignores the root meaning of the word you are misunderstanding the word.

forget what a sophmore in economics might say; ask instead an english professor...

TheJokker
October 19, 2010, 17:57
Originally posted by shlomo


Wanna take that back now?

somebody who argued for 2 or 3 pages that using "quotation marks" to cite a "quotation" in an informal internet conversation is wrong and demanding a formal style while ignoring the plethora of conflicting formal styles is hardly qualified to judge...

how about posting a couple links where you demonstrated some intelligence or made a meaningful contribution to the understanding of a subject being discussed?

you are a waste of bandwidth.

shlomo
October 19, 2010, 18:15
Originally posted by TheJokker

how about posting a couple links where you demonstrated some intelligence or made a meaningful contribution to the understanding of a subject being discussed?

You first.

ETA: "Obama=Carter+Nixon" does not count. Just so you know.

gates
October 19, 2010, 18:32
Alright sport - go over to the Ticker Forum and try out your definition - it won't fly because thats not how people that trade fx TALK about the dollar. Technically you are correct but in economic parlance you are wrong.

L Haney
October 19, 2010, 18:32
Originally posted by TheJokker

ask instead an english professor...

Yep, them bulwarks of language usage 'bout as useful as the full professors of economics that got the skinny on how to fix this mess. There is proper usage and there is clarity of meaning. Obliterate obfuscation. And I'd rather have Shlomo directing my investments than you figgurin' how much tip I outta' leave on a dinner tab.

shlomo
October 19, 2010, 18:38
Originally posted by L Haney
And I'd rather have Shlomo directing my investments than you figgurin' how much tip I outta' leave on a dinner tab.

http://www.jim3dlong.com/1893_Edvard_Munch_The_Scream-WR400.jpg

L Haney
October 19, 2010, 18:46
Oh, that's just great! Puttin' my damn picture all over the innerwebs.

shlomo
October 19, 2010, 18:51
You don't think I want that red-headed runt after me, do you?

TheJokker
October 20, 2010, 06:58
Originally posted by gates
Alright sport - go over to the Ticker Forum and try out your definition - it won't fly because thats not how people that trade fx TALK about the dollar. Technically you are correct but in economic parlance you are wrong.

when you create your own theory that actually predicts future events you can define the terminology:

http://www.falfiles.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=235059

from june 8, 2008

is it the devaluation of the dollar or the fact that european banks are maintaining the euro at an over-valued level? we have allowed the dollar to float downward in order to achieve a more equitable level with the chinese yuan. if the europeans had done likewise the price of oil would have remained stable.


recently both the bank of ireland and the president of france have both stated the euro is overvalued by 30%. the german economy is doing well but other countries are having a hard time exporting products due to an unfavorable exchange rate. are the europeans maintaining a high euro in order to effect political change in the u.s.a. by increasing discontent with the republicans over oil prices? what will happen if the euro suddenly plunges downward due to uncontrollable market forces?


in time america will enjoy a more completive position in the world economy due to our exchange rate with the asian markets and low oil prices once the euro comes down.



a month later the euro and oil dropped; exactly as i had been predicting for months.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches.aspx?post=7f950cd4-7de5-43e4-a9ed-dfe501411051

from yesterday:

Stocks fell sharply today, with the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) falling below 11,000 for the first time in eight sessions, after China shocked global markets by raising interest rates.

The move was unexpected and sent gold and other commodity prices lower. Oil dropped below $80 a barrel. Futures trading initially suggested more market pressure on Wednesday, but trading early Wednesday now indicates a rebound at the open.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304510704575561780406217028.html?m od=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

China surprised investors by raising interest rates Tuesday, sparking a world-wide sell-off in stocks, commodities and emerging-markets currencies as investors lowered their expectations for Chinese growth, which has been seen as a key driver of the global economy.

if you had been paying attention to my theory it would not be unexpected nor would you be surprised...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5505a7f0-d7c2-11df-b478-00144feabdc0.html

A senior European policy-maker, who asked not to be named, said a further aggressive round of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve would be “irresponsible” as it made US exports more competitive at the expense of its rivals.

Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist for BNY Mellon, said: “In narrow terms, the US is winning the currency wars as a weaker dollar will help its economy, but it could damage the other big economic blocs of China, Japan and Europe.”

sound familiar?

with all due respect gates based upon the writings of your mentors you have been predicting the imminent collapse of the u.s financial system for weeks, months and now years. for years now i have been posting my own theory that has actually been predictive.

you guys have been wrong while i have been right all along. who are you going to listen to?

shlomo
October 20, 2010, 07:56
I've been predicting rain for weeks. Last night it sprinkled a little.

I'm a genium, too.

Eric Bryant
October 20, 2010, 08:46
TheJokker is about the last guy I'd listen to on the topic of inflation and deflation. If anyone wants to dig up the multi-page thread from a few months ago where him and I "politely discussed" the topic, go for it. In the meanwhile, I'm still waiting to hear back from him on how we will create more wealth by bulldozing things of value.

Idiots aside, the problem here is quite clear. Inflate the dollar, decrease the price of American goods abroad, and thus increase employment - but at the cost of making commodities and foreign goods more expensive. We import a lot of raw materials and no longer manufacture many things of value ourselves (such as electronic components), so a weaker dollar could really suck whether you're Joe Sixpack with an SUV to fuel or an American manufacturer of automotive components that uses a lot of steel, copper, neodymium magnets, and integrated circuits. Inflation helps those that owe debt, but hurts those that loaned out the money - they're getting repaid in weaker currency. It also increases the demand for lending.

Deflate the dollar, and the cost of imported goods comes down - bad for American manufacturers who want to sell goods abroad (and thus bad for employment), but good for the folks that shop daily at Wal-Mart or the purchasing managers for factories that need to buy lots of raw materials. Deflation decreases the future demand for lending, but it's nice to be repaid in dollars that are worth more than when they were loaned out. If you're responsible for paying that loan, deflation really sucks.

As it's clear to see, either approach has its own macroeconomic benefits and drawbacks, so it's pretty tough to advocate one direction of the dollar's value as being preferred.

juanni
October 20, 2010, 10:13
Originally posted by Eric Bryant
TheJokker is about the last guy I'd listen to on the topic of inflation and deflation. If anyone wants to dig up the multi-page thread from a few months ago where him and I "politely discussed" the topic, go for it. In the meanwhile, I'm still waiting to hear back from him on how we will create more wealth by bulldozing things of value.

Idiots aside, the problem here is quite clear. Inflate the dollar, decrease the price of American goods abroad, and thus increase employment - but at the cost of making commodities and foreign goods more expensive. We import a lot of raw materials and no longer manufacture many things of value ourselves (such as electronic components), so a weaker dollar could really suck whether you're Joe Sixpack with an SUV to fuel or an American manufacturer of automotive components that uses a lot of steel, copper, neodymium magnets, and integrated circuits. Inflation helps those that owe debt, but hurts those that loaned out the money - they're getting repaid in weaker currency. It also increases the demand for lending.

Deflate the dollar, and the cost of imported goods comes down - bad for American manufacturers who want to sell goods abroad (and thus bad for employment), but good for the folks that shop daily at Wal-Mart or the purchasing managers for factories that need to buy lots of raw materials. Deflation decreases the future demand for lending, but it's nice to be repaid in dollars that are worth more than when they were loaned out. If you're responsible for paying that loan, deflation really sucks.

As it's clear to see, either approach has its own macroeconomic benefits and drawbacks, so it's pretty tough to advocate one direction of the dollar's value as being preferred.

Yep there is no easy fix, when you are a debtor nation, that no longer manufacturers anything.

Deflation in the things you have and offer, housing, wages, consumer trinketry.
Inflation in the things you need or can't avoid food, energy and govt taxes/fees.
That is all you need to know. :)


...........juanni

Skilter
October 20, 2010, 22:14
I would encourage everyone to read the currency discussion in the WSJ this past weekend...

TheJokker
October 21, 2010, 07:02
Originally posted by Eric Bryant
TheJokker is about the last guy I'd listen to on the topic of inflation and deflation. If anyone wants to dig up the multi-page thread from a few months ago where him and I "politely discussed" the topic, go for it. In the meanwhile, I'm still waiting to hear back from him on how we will create more wealth by bulldozing things of value.

Idiots aside, the problem here is quite clear. Inflate the dollar, decrease the price of American goods abroad, and thus increase employment - but at the cost of making commodities and foreign goods more expensive. We import a lot of raw materials and no longer manufacture many things of value ourselves (such as electronic components), so a weaker dollar could really suck whether you're Joe Sixpack with an SUV to fuel or an American manufacturer of automotive components that uses a lot of steel, copper, neodymium magnets, and integrated circuits. Inflation helps those that owe debt, but hurts those that loaned out the money - they're getting repaid in weaker currency. It also increases the demand for lending.

Deflate the dollar, and the cost of imported goods comes down - bad for American manufacturers who want to sell goods abroad (and thus bad for employment), but good for the folks that shop daily at Wal-Mart or the purchasing managers for factories that need to buy lots of raw materials. Deflation decreases the future demand for lending, but it's nice to be repaid in dollars that are worth more than when they were loaned out. If you're responsible for paying that loan, deflation really sucks.

As it's clear to see, either approach has its own macroeconomic benefits and drawbacks, so it's pretty tough to advocate one direction of the dollar's value as being preferred.

dull average...

http://inflate.askdefine.com/

inflate
Verb
1 fill with gas or air; "inflate a balloons" [syn: blow up] [ant: deflate]
2 exaggerate or make bigger; "The charges were inflated" [syn: blow up, expand, amplify]
3 cause prices to rise by increasing the available currency or credit; "The war inflated the economy" [ant: deflate]
4 increase the amount or availability of, creating a rise in value; "inflate the currency" [ant: deflate]
5 become inflated; "The sails ballooned" [syn: balloon, billow]

while "inflation" has become synonymous with "price inflation" inflation does and has always meant "increase". a growing balloon or bubble is inflating, expanding while a collapsing bubble or balloon is deflating. a growing economic bubble has to inflate. a rise in the value of the dollar is dollar inflation.

your problem is sophomoric. you partially understand the meaning of inflation in the context of "price inflation" and incorrectly generalize its usage out of context.

noah webster is rolling over in his grave...

TheJokker
October 21, 2010, 07:07
Originally posted by shlomo
I've been predicting rain for weeks. Last night it sprinkled a little.

I'm a genium, too.

then it should be easy for you to point out anybody else who prior to the first ten days of july 2008 associated the high price of oil with an inflated euro bubble. for months all i heard from the peanut gallery was how wrong i was yet i was the only person "demonstrating" any understanding.

i was right and all of you were wrong. it continues today...

(i'm still waiting on a link from you pointing out an intelligent contribution to a discussion on your part)

shlomo
October 21, 2010, 07:08
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

I love it every day when 8:00 am rolls around, and I get to read the "two-minutes hate".

:rofl:

shlomo
October 21, 2010, 07:11
Originally posted by TheJokker


then it should be easy for you to point out anybody else who prior to the first ten days of july 2008 associated the high price of oil with an inflated euro bubble.

The rooster thinks the sun comes up because he crows.

How's that for a contribution?

TheJokker
October 21, 2010, 13:04
Originally posted by shlomo


The rooster thinks the sun comes up because he crows.

How's that for a contribution?

you fail...

TheJokker
October 21, 2010, 13:10
for eric and his 3rd grade education:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/will-the-deflating-dollar-take-the-wind-out-of-markets.aspx

Will the deflating dollar take the wind out of markets?

the article is old and wrong but...

they are referring to a deflating dollar as a weakening dollar i.e. dropping in value. deflate means to decrease. a dollar decreasing in value is NOT inflating...

shlomo
October 21, 2010, 13:28
All I can do is sit here, shake my head and laugh.

Third-grade education? :rofl: :rofl:

Only thing funnier than a dumbass is an arrogant dumbass.

You are incorrigible, and that's what keeps it entertaining.:rofl:

shlomo
October 21, 2010, 13:35
Just to add some spice, try this from Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.[1] When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation is also an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy.

I suppose you'll tell us that's old and wrong too. After all, it doesn't agree with you.
:rofl:

L Haney
October 21, 2010, 13:46
"...associated the high price of oil with an inflated euro bubble".

But what's it inflating INTO?

brunop
October 21, 2010, 13:48
Originally posted by TheJokker


you fail...

Uh...

not so sure about that.

carguym14
October 21, 2010, 13:48
He still hasn't explained to us how bulldozing houses will help the economy.

Guess we are just two stoopid to understand.............;)

brunop
October 21, 2010, 13:55
I don't follow Jokker's "contributions" very carefully, but possibly the destruction of value (houses) followed by increased debt (Capitalism - large 'C') and spending will make the same tired charts move upward while the real cost is swept under the rug (or kicked down the road, etc.).

?

shlomo
October 21, 2010, 14:08
Originally posted by brunop


Uh...

not so sure about that.

Oh, but The Jokker (sic) said it, so it MUST be so. His every pronouncement is as from the lips of God Himself.

Skilter
October 21, 2010, 18:08
Just because he has a funny face doesn't mean he is DABTL...

In fact ... his arguments and his face are much prettier.

That is unless it is inflated...

This thread has gone south. Ugh...

Eric Bryant
October 21, 2010, 18:09
Originally posted by shlomo
You are incorrigible, and that's what keeps it entertaining.:rofl:

There are few things in life that are truly dependable - Jokker's willingness to argue obviously wrong points is one of them.

gates
October 21, 2010, 22:30
He stubbornly clings to his partisan ideology - failing to see the forrest for the trees - TPTB, WANT people, NEED people, EXACTLY like Jokker - it keeps the focus off of where it really shoud be... OFF of the people that have raped the American Taxpayer for DECADES - if not CENTURIES!

TheJokker
October 22, 2010, 07:06
Originally posted by shlomo
Just to add some spice, try this from Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.[1] When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation is also an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy.

I suppose you'll tell us that's old and wrong too. After all, it doesn't agree with you.
:rofl: you are dumber than a bag of rocks. that is the definition for "price inflation". google "deflating dollar" and you will see article after article after article written by real economists using deflation in the exact manner i have been using it.

if you don't understand that deflate or inflate is a verb and that verb has a meaning and that meaning "must" be considered when applying the term to economics than you are hopelessly stupid.

a deflating dollar may cause a rise in prices. a deflating dollar may be "inflationary" but "it" is not "inflating' when it is dropping in value. inflating means to expand. a deflating balloon is contracting. a deflating tire is dropping in pressure. etc. it's basic english vocabulary which apparently you "all" have failed to master.

gates, eric bryant, shlomo... how can you help anybody when you haven't mastered the basic fundementals of the english language. none of you understand what deflation is! the blind leading the blind...

http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/07/deflating-dollar.html

deflating dollar

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/will-the-deflating-dollar-take-the-wind-out-of-markets.aspx

Will the deflating dollar take the wind out of markets?


http://www.inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog_single.php?id=9023

Inflate the Market by Deflating the U.S. Dollar

http://www.chicagofirstnaz.org/DSN/wwwchicagofirstnazorg/Content/MadMoney-Week02.pdf

Deflating the Dollar

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/how-to-play-the-weak-dollar-16604/

Can investors position their portfolios to account for this trend? While a deflating dollar is hardly seen as the sole determinant in picking stocks, say experts, it's certainly a variable worth considering. Certain sectors and industries that garner a large percentage of overseas sales should benefit more from the dollar's decline.


"they' are right, thejokker is right, and you are all wrong...

this is what happens when somebody tries to have an intelligent conversation with a bunch of morons...

shlomo
October 22, 2010, 14:50
Originally posted by TheJokker

a deflating dollar may cause a rise in prices.


From the article alluded to by the original poster:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/asia/17japan.html

" For nearly a generation now, the nation has been trapped in low growth and a corrosive downward spiral of prices, known as deflation..."

A downward spiral of prices means the dollar buys more. This is what you are attempting to call "inflation". Everybody else calls it deflation.

You are a dipshit. I know it, the Files knows it, and the American People know it.

This is what happens when a bunch of intelligent people try to have a conversation with a moron....

Skilter
October 22, 2010, 17:40
pfffftttt....

Eric Bryant
October 22, 2010, 18:40
Originally posted by shlomo
You are a dipshit. I know it, the Files knows it, and the American People know it.

:rofl:

:bow:

Jokker, if you think you're better than the rest of us - just leave. Yeah, I know that your 8th-grade history teacher was impressed by you. The rest of us think you're an effin' fool. You've never once demonstrated the ability to synthesize new information and use it to subtly change your viewpoints. That means you're about as intelligent as the rug lying by my front door.

And if you expect me to give a f*ck about your half-assed insults, come out from behind your junior-high pseudonym and argue like a man.

TheJokker
October 23, 2010, 07:55
Originally posted by Eric Bryant


:rofl:

:bow:

Jokker, if you think you're better than the rest of us - just leave. Yeah, I know that your 8th-grade history teacher was impressed by you. The rest of us think you're an effin' fool. You've never once demonstrated the ability to synthesize new information and use it to subtly change your viewpoints. That means you're about as intelligent as the rug lying by my front door.

And if you expect me to give a f*ck about your half-assed insults, come out from behind your junior-high pseudonym and argue like a man.

you are the asshole that started the "stupid" insults over a matter of vocabulary when clearly you are wrong. go back and look. i was politely explaining your error when "you" started the insults...

TheJokker
October 23, 2010, 08:19
Originally posted by shlomo


From the article alluded to by the original poster:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/asia/17japan.html

" For nearly a generation now, the nation has been trapped in low growth and a corrosive downward spiral of prices, known as deflation..."

A downward spiral of prices means the dollar buys more. This is what you are attempting to call "inflation". Everybody else calls it deflation.

You are a dipshit. I know it, the Files knows it, and the American People know it.

This is what happens when a bunch of intelligent people try to have a conversation with a moron.... read it: when "prices" drop it is known as deflation.

when a tire loses pressure and decreases in size it "deflates".
when a balloon loses its size it "deflates".
when prices in general drops it is "deflation".
when gold drops in price it is "deflating".
when the price of wheat drops it is "deflating".

you would have us believe the dollar when it drops in value is "inflating"? when economists use the verb "deflate" to describe a falling dollar?

deflation is all about reduction. what your mean to say is: a falling dollar, a deflating dollar is "causing" price inflation. a deflating dollar is inflationary.

i'm still waiting for "any" sign of intelligence from you. you are a vile little troll with nothing to add. all of you have been attacking me over my "correct" usage of the term deflation. you are all wrong and it seems as though you would prefer to remain in ignorance. how is that intelligent? had you all been correct it would be one thing but you're wrong. how is my insistence on defending what is correct wrong?

TheJokker
October 23, 2010, 08:28
Originally posted by Eric Bryant


:rofl:

:bow:

Jokker, if you think you're better than the rest of us - just leave. Yeah, I know that your 8th-grade history teacher was impressed by you. The rest of us think you're an effin' fool. You've never once demonstrated the ability to synthesize new information and use it to subtly change your viewpoints. That means you're about as intelligent as the rug lying by my front door.

And if you expect me to give a f*ck about your half-assed insults, come out from behind your junior-high pseudonym and argue like a man.

oh, i'm not going anywhere. you are a semi-literate know nothing and if you choose to confront me when i'm right and you're wrong i will rub your nose in your own shit. i had nothing against you until you started the insults but i will not suffer your foolishness and i "will" stand my ground against the likes of you...

L Haney
October 23, 2010, 12:05
Originally posted by TheJokker

... i "will" stand my ground against the likes of you...

Is this ground wrested from the battles of intellectual rigor, or the forlorn vestiges of the fruit of a fools errand? Look to your feet, the firmament is suspect at best.

Eric Bryant
October 23, 2010, 17:42
Originally posted by TheJokker
oh, i'm not going anywhere.

Well, that's the most disappointing thing I've heard from you recently.

you are a semi-literate know nothing and if you choose to confront me when i'm right and you're wrong i will rub your nose in your own shit.

I will not be called "semi-literate" by someone who dos not understand the basics of grammar such as capitalizing the start of each sentence and the personal pronoun "I". Get back to me when you successfully graduate from the first grade.

Also, literate people typically require only one attempt at responding to a single post.

i had nothing against you until you started the insults but i will not suffer your foolishness and i "will" stand my ground against the likes of you...

What the hell do you intend to communicate by putting "will" in quote marks? That's just weird.

Let's skip the usage of "inflate" and "deflate" for the time being, and go with "strengthen" and "weaken" to describe the relative power of currency. Where do you think the dollar will go, and what do you think this will accomplish? I'll tell you right now that you can't get all excited about the dollar weakening relative to the yuan and then turn around and also get excited about the euro weakening against the dollar, because you demonstrate inconsistency of logic every time you trot out that same scenario.

I'd also like you to reconcile your predictions on the price of the euro relative to the dollar, because you boldly predicted further weakening of the euro just in time to see it rise by a couple of dimes relative to the dollar. Nice call there! :rolleyes:

shlomo
October 25, 2010, 12:27
Originally posted by TheJokker
read it: when "prices" drop it is known as deflation.


That would then mean that when prices increase, it is known as inflation.

Increasing prices mean the dollar buys less, and its value is falling. Which, by the way, is the opposite of what you have been saying thus far.

Get your story straight, brainiac.

juanni
October 25, 2010, 13:48
Originally posted by TheJokker
read it: when "prices" drop it is known as deflation.

when a tire loses pressure and decreases in size it "deflates".
when a balloon loses its size it "deflates".
when prices in general drops it is "deflation".
when gold drops in price it is "deflating".
when the price of wheat drops it is "deflating".


And what is the reference that the price of the above drop against??
Oh yeah, the currency, in this case the dollar.



Originally posted by TheJokker

you would have us believe the dollar when it drops in value is "inflating"? when economists use the verb "deflate" to describe a falling dollar?


So if the reference lowers in "value" or buying power. What happens to gold and wheat?
Oh yeah, they inflate in reference to the dollar.

You stumbled over it, but managed to carry on. :rofl:



..............juanni

Eric Bryant
October 25, 2010, 14:36
Does bulldozing a house create deflation or inflation? :rofl:

shlomo
October 25, 2010, 14:40
Originally posted by Eric Bryant
Does bulldozing a house create deflation or inflation? :rofl:

Might depend on the scrapmetal value of the paint chips. :rofl:

EricCartmanR1
October 25, 2010, 14:41
Bulldozing houses will help responsible existing home owners. It will increase the the values of their houses.

Maybe increase it enough so people won't be under water and can sell their houses and buy a different house somewhere else thereby increasing trade.

I can see the logic behind it.

EricCartmanR1
October 25, 2010, 15:36
Another analogy is the Diamond trade. By decreasing/controlling inventory, you create a market and an economy. If Diamonds were not controlled like they are now, there would be no market, no diamond economy and they would be worthless.

gates
October 25, 2010, 15:45
Denninger is talking about this right now on blog talk

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/marketticker

Eric Bryant
October 25, 2010, 17:56
Originally posted by shlomo
Might depend on the scrapmetal value of the paint chips. :rofl:

Doh! :bow:

Jokker, I know you want to run far, far away from the whole destruction-of-wealth thing. At least humor us and tell us which way the US currency will go, and explain to us the pros and cons of such a swing. For example - if you think that the dollar weakens relative to the yuan, and the euro weakens relative to the dollar, and if the US exports more to the EU than to China, how exactly does this net-out to a benefit for the US? Or are you just happen that we're sticking to the European socialists by weakening their currency (which they would frankly welcome right now, as they actually like to export some manufactured goods)?

This, of course, represents an effort in futility matched only by gates trying to reason with Bill ;)

shlomo
October 26, 2010, 21:10
http://www.nyworms.com/images/groupcrickets.jpg

Bama Steve
October 26, 2010, 22:16
Them ain't cockroaches, but they should be . . .

shlomo
October 26, 2010, 22:20
Don't be muddying up the toilet tank, Steve. Those are crickets. That's the sound for the last 24.

'Course, Jokker (sic) may be recovering from another weekend of keeping the EPA's lead-abatement Ponzi scheme alive, and not be in any condition to address the issues presented.

We shall see.

Bama Steve
October 26, 2010, 22:52
Aye, Aye, Skipper!

/O

Mouth sealed . . .

:wink:

TheJokker
October 27, 2010, 06:57
Originally posted by Eric Bryant


Doh! :bow:

Jokker, I know you want to run far, far away from the whole destruction-of-wealth thing. At least humor us and tell us which way the US currency will go, and explain to us the pros and cons of such a swing. For example - if you think that the dollar weakens relative to the yuan, and the euro weakens relative to the dollar, and if the US exports more to the EU than to China, how exactly does this net-out to a benefit for the US? Or are you just happen that we're sticking to the European socialists by weakening their currency (which they would frankly welcome right now, as they actually like to export some manufactured goods)?

This, of course, represents an effort in futility matched only by gates trying to reason with Bill ;)
goods from asian countries become more expensive relative to american goods. american goods become more competitive i.e. america becomes more attractive for capital investment relative to asian countries. capital investment = american jobs.

european countries like the chinese have "overhead" related to their socialist economies. it is more difficult for the europeans to deflate/devalue/depreciate their currencies and absorb the revaluing of their assets. china has a huge population of peasants and inflation in their country will increase the expense of communist entitlements.

deflating our currency is a similar gamble to fischer's queen sacrifice in the "game of the century". our sacrifices today increases our advantages later on. gate's post yesterday http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/grand-strategy10-10.html describes a similar scenario.

TheJokker
October 27, 2010, 06:59
Originally posted by shlomo


That would then mean that when prices increase, it is known as inflation.

Increasing prices mean the dollar buys less, and its value is falling. Which, by the way, is the opposite of what you have been saying thus far.

Get your story straight, brainiac.

wrong...

the dollar is also a commodity bought and sold by traders. it's value changes from minute to minute. if the price of the dollar is dropping it is "deflating".

carguym14
October 27, 2010, 08:08
Originally posted by TheJokker

goods from asian countries become more expensive relative to american goods. american goods become more competitive i.e. america becomes more attractive for capital investment relative to asian countries. capital investment = american jobs.

european countries like the chinese have "overhead" related to their socialist economies. it is more difficult for the europeans to deflate/devalue/depreciate their currencies and absorb the revaluing of their assets. china has a huge population of peasants and inflation in their country will increase the expense of communist entitlements.

deflating our currency is a similar gamble to fischer's queen sacrifice in the "game of the century". our sacrifices today increases our advantages later on. gate's post yesterday http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/grand-strategy10-10.html describes a similar scenario.




Good thing we don't have many entitlements here:rolleyes:


(Bulldozers don't work on entitlements.........................or do they?)

shlomo
October 27, 2010, 16:24
Originally posted by TheJokker


wrong...

the dollar is also a commodity bought and sold by traders. it's value changes from minute to minute. if the price of the dollar is dropping it is "deflating".

Wrong? Really? Tell us what part of the following was wrong.

"That would then mean that when prices increase, it is known as inflation.

Increasing prices mean the dollar buys less, and its value is falling. Which, by the way, is the opposite of what you have been saying thus far.

Get your story straight, brainiac. "

TheJokker
October 28, 2010, 09:39
Originally posted by shlomo


Wrong? Really? Tell us what part of the following was wrong.

"That would then mean that when prices increase, it is known as inflation.

Increasing prices mean the dollar buys less, and its value is falling. Which, by the way, is the opposite of what you have been saying thus far.

Get your story straight, brainiac. "

if the market price of the dollar falls than the price (value) of the dollar is deflating/falling. if some prices are falling while other prices are rising you must state that specifically in order to avoid miscommunication: a deflating dollar is causing prices to rise, a depreciating dollar is causing general prices to inflate, a falling dollar is inflationary etc. you must state the see-saw relationship.

the dollar does not equal prices in general; they are separate. if you communicate: the dollar is inflating you are making a statement about the price of the dollar "not" prices in general.

shlomo
October 28, 2010, 09:50
Originally posted by TheJokker


if the market price of the dollar falls than the price (value) of the dollar is deflating/falling. if some prices are falling while other prices are rising you must state that specifically in order to avoid miscommunication: a deflating dollar is causing prices to rise, a depreciating dollar is causing general prices to inflate, a falling dollar is inflationary etc. you must state the see-saw relationship.

the dollar does not equal prices in general; they are separate. if you communicate: the dollar is inflating you are making a statement about the price of the dollar "not" prices in general.

So you can't point to anything in the statement that was wrong. Imagine my surpise. That would make your statement "wrong" now, wouldn't it?.

Nice tapdance, though.

TheJokker
October 29, 2010, 07:01
Originally posted by shlomo


So you can't point to anything in the statement that was wrong. Imagine my surpise. That would make your statement "wrong" now, wouldn't it?.

Nice tapdance, though.

no; you are making statements about "prices" and trying to apply them to the "dollar". the "dollar" does not equal "prices".

if the price of the dollar is falling than the dollar is deflating. a deflating dollar may cause a rise in general prices causing (price) inflation "but" the dollar itself is deflating.

shlomo
October 29, 2010, 07:57
Originally posted by TheJokker


no; you are making statements about "prices" and trying to apply them to the "dollar".


No, YOU are trying to apply them to the dollar.

You posted earlier:

"...read it: when "prices" drop it is known as deflation."

Were you "wrong" then? If not, tell me what is "wrong" about any of the following:

"That would then mean that when prices increase, it is known as inflation.

Increasing prices mean the dollar buys less, and its value is falling. Which, by the way, is the opposite of what you have been saying thus far."