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gates
October 08, 2010, 10:35
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=168582

offshore44
October 08, 2010, 11:22
Saw that this morning. Lock limit up is never a good thing for so many reasons.

I wonder how long before that trickles through to the consumer level?

okiefarmer
October 08, 2010, 11:44
Food prices rise my eye. Wheat prces could double from the present farm gate prices of about $7 KCBT (remember basis is subtracted from the board price) and total input price of a loaf of bread would be a staggering 10 cent increase over what it is now. General rule of thumb is a bushel of wheat makes about 70 loaves of bread. For certain, we will see far more than a 10 cent increase in a loaf cost, and the blame will all be laid at the foot of the greedy farmer. In all my years of farming, I have yet to have one ounce of say in the setting of the price of my grain. Farmers are price takers, not price makers.

carguym14
October 08, 2010, 12:37
The corn and soybean harvest has been good so far here-yields are good even after a wet spring/summer,and the weather has been great for harvest.

Okiefarmer is spot on about farmers not setting prices.These guys around here are pretty happy though.And that means spending,so our little part of the economy may get a boost,even with the increased costs that go along with it.

As always,not much we can do but hang on.

CG&L
October 08, 2010, 14:06
I must not be able to read graphs very well. Everything looked normal to me. Besides, what is a lock limit and how will it affect anything?

I'm currently working in the grain export industry and allís well. Life couldn't be much better

You guys either know a lot more than I see happening in the industry or you guys are freaking out about nothing

I think you guys might be miss-reading the charts

carguym14
October 08, 2010, 15:15
Originally posted by CaptainJ
I must not be able to read graphs very well. Everything looked normal to me. Besides, what is a lock limit and how will it affect anything?

I'm currently working in the grain export industry and allís well. Life couldn't be much better

You guys either know a lot more than I see happening in the industry or you guys are freaking out about nothing

I think you guys might be miss-reading the charts



The part of the graph where it spikes straight up is the problem.

The lock limits cap the price after a certain increase in one day so things don't get out of hand.Something around .30 a bushel for corn I think.

A lot of people dumped money into the markets causing the lock limit to kick in.The freaking out will come from the higher prices of just about everything that will follow.Remember when this happened a few years back?Oil at 140.00 a gallon??

RG Coburn
October 08, 2010, 15:51
So let me get this straight...
Grains are climbing rapidly...
Gold is climbing rapidly...
Oil is climbing rapidly...
What is logically next?

carguym14
October 08, 2010, 15:57
Originally posted by RG Coburn
So let me get this straight...
Grains are climbing rapidly...
Gold is climbing rapidly...
Oil is climbing rapidly...
What is logically next?


You forgot the stock market-11,006.Good times are here again!


As for what's next?

No clue here.Logic doesn't seem to come into play anymore...............

mitchellh
October 08, 2010, 19:22
Originally posted by RG Coburn
So let me get this straight...
Grains are climbing rapidly...
Gold is climbing rapidly...
Oil is climbing rapidly...
What is logically next?

Cotton Futures are the highest it's been in 10 years.

okiefarmer
October 08, 2010, 19:48
Lock limit days only serve one purpose for those that are in the market. If you are short, and it is lock limit up, the only thing you are sure of is how much money you lost that day. You CANNOT liquidate your position, no trading is taking place. Likewise with limit down with those long the market. If any grain trades limit up or down more than a few days, limits are expanded usually 50%.

We can thank our USDA for this blip. I honestly don't think it will last long, FEDGOD well step in and do something stupid like they always do. They put out their September S&D report and yield report a few weeks back, knocking the hell out of prices, limit down on one day. Corn yields are not all the exciting in the "I" states, the ones that really matter most. Most farmers, thanks to the internet, have known all summer that crops have been stressed, early from too much rain, late due to heat at grain fill. USDA put out a 165 national average and a carryout amount that was as much hot air as anything we have ever seen. They tried to graciously correct their booboo of the carryout bushels, and feedgrains use, while also lowering the national average to about 154 BPA. 10 or 11 BPA doesn'tt sound like much to most here I realize, but multiplied by the close to 85 million acres planted, and it makes a pretty good pile that won't be there that USDA originally said it would.

The cure for high prices IS high prices. Biggest problems are land rent will not come back down as fast when grain prices collapse, input prices, ie,m fertilizer, seed, chemical, have not come down to speak of since the runup of 2008 by the Wall Street gang, and food prices will stay up, or your packaging will get smaller. Count on it.

BTDT,

Okie out

offshore44
October 08, 2010, 20:15
The Financial Times has an article on the rise in commodity prices as well...


Link (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12b06cee-d300-11df-9ae9-00144feabdc0.html)

Yee Ha! Here we go with the market speculation again...

MtnWulf
October 08, 2010, 20:54
Cotton Futures are the highest it's been in 10 years.

Does this mean we'll be shittin' in High Cotton???????

(Old Southern saying)

carguym14
October 08, 2010, 21:02
Hell,prices have been going up and packages getting smaller for awhile now.

We just had some ground here sell for over 7K an acre.Wasn't a farmer that bought it-some investor.Seems to be how it's going around here-investor buys the ground and gets a farm management company to handle it.Family farms are shrinking big time.


Most of the guys around here are still averaging 180b an acre even with the dead spots from ponds.Some have been higher,but no one has been dramatically less that I have heard.

Works great as long as you have the chemicals to apply..........

Eric Bryant
October 08, 2010, 22:48
Inflation can't happen without demand pull (i.e. higher wages or employment), and deflation is the new theme. Isn't that what all the "smart guys" have been claiming for the past 24 months?

gates
October 09, 2010, 00:24
Paradigm has changed with Q.E.!

Eric Bryant
October 09, 2010, 11:28
Originally posted by gates
Paradigm has changed with Q.E.!

And the first round of QE started, what, back in March 2009? So why is anyone surprised now? Where are the claims that "it's not the money supply but rather the velocity that causes inflation?"

I haven't read much Mish lately, but his head has got to be ready to explode :rofl: Here's what he had to say in March of this year:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/marc-faber-and-mish-on-tech-ticker-mish.html

"The money supply is just sitting there as excess reserves on bank balance sheets," Mish says. "Bernanke can print this money but unless it makes its way into the real economy we're not going to see inflation."

In addition, he predicts "another leg down" in housing and commercial real estate, more consumer loan defaults, and notes state and local governments are (finally) cutting back on spending in the face of falling tax receipts and budget deficits. All these trends will contribute to the deflationary force of credit contraction, Mish declares.

It's a bit early in the game to declare him 100% wrong, but his hypothesis isn't holding up too well in the past few weeks - the money hasn't yet made its way into the "real economy" (hell, it hasn't really been printed yet), and yet we're facing 9% inflation in one month. All just from rumors of QE2. This is exactly what many warned of back in early '09, during the first QE event, and they got laughed at by the deflationists.

Oh well. This whole thing could yet go the other way, depending on the attempts of other central banks to debase their own currency. Maybe we end up with the euro at $1.60, maybe we see the two at parity. I wouldn't want to have a sizable bet either way right now.

okiefarmer
October 10, 2010, 18:22
Not that anyone but me and maybe a few others on here give a rat's patoot, but limits have been expanded on corn on the overnight, and it is currently locked limit up of 45 cents on the e-trade board.

I'm likin it for now.

Beans and wheat both up, but mostly in sympathy for corn, just along for the ride.