Hmm... KD is going to throw in the towel

[gates]

and stop writing when he determines we are past the point of no return - he said he will shut down the ticker forum and concentrate on saving his family.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=168273

[offshore44]

Interesting. How / when did you find this out?

I figured that he would have had his stuff together already.

His writing lately has been on the verge of someone having apoplexy...He seems to need a break / vacation or something. If you figuratively loose your head, you will probably practically loose your head in these trying times.

[gates]

he just wrote it today in that ticker i linked to - he changed his billing awhile back so he's been thinking about this for some time, its not a knee jerk reaction - it sounds like he thinks QE2 will be the tipping point - we'll see...

[offshore44]

I understand the financial parallels between Japan and the US, at least at my level. I understand that there is a lot of "hinky" legal stuff happening around how the paperwork for mortgages have / are being handled by the legal system and courts. I agree that the bad paper must be flushed through the system for the economy for any reasonable chance at recovery.

I also understand that the financial reset is not going to happen normally with our current political - legal system. It IS going to go boom at some point, and I have been preparing for that eventuality for awhile by doing everything within my means.

It seems that KD's rhetoric has been reaching a crescendo recently. He may actually have the numbers to support an imminent detonation of the economy, and has been trumpeting that insight loudly. I think that he is not taking into account the actual amount of control that the Fed and the Federal government has assumed over the economy. I also think that KD has underestimated the amount of influence that the big banks are exerting on the government and the economy. Don't get me wrong, his analysis is brilliant and prescient, and has been for a number of years. I just think he is underestimating the amount of sheep herding that the Federal Government can accomplish and the amount of time that they can keep it up. As he has pointed out though, when it finally does go boom, it is going to be a (the?) big one.

I didn't see where he was going to bail and go totally defensive. What did I miss?

(edited to clarify my thoughts)

[gates]

its in the comments at the very bottom of the page - he explained himself a little better in those comments - he believe the point of no return will be when the fed has to QE to pay the INTEREST on our debt - when that happens he's going to stop writing Tickers - said there will be no point in continuing.

[offshore44]

Thanks gates, I'll go back and reread that part again...I missed it the first two times...

[W.E.G.]

Oh,.... just fugk it.

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[offshore44]

OK, got it!

Man, I have to read the comments sections more often. Lots of entertainment value there. Some nuggets of pure gold as well.

Sorry about that gates, didn't mean to be dense.

[Skilter]

ok... so explain to me this...

If I am in a fund that is 50% cash and 50% (approximate) US Treas. futures/bonds. My cash will devalue in QE2, but my T-fut should grow due to QE inflation, correct?

The cash needs to be moved to a commodity or possibly (hate to say it) a stock, correct? Am I tracking this right?

[juanni]

Originally posted by Skilter
ok... so explain to me this...

If I am in a fund that is 50% cash and 50% (approximate) US Treas. futures/bonds. My cash will devalue in QE2, but my T-fut should grow due to QE inflation, correct?

The cash needs to be moved to a commodity or possibly (hate to say it) a stock, correct? Am I tracking this right?

When or if the rotten, corrupt, fraudulent system comes crashing down any and ALL PAPER promises (stocks, $$$, bonds, treasuries, commodity futures) will be just, paper,,,only without the promise. :wink:

Real things will stilll have some real value.



..............juanni

[gates]

S- well yes, but and its a BIG BUT, if your timing is off you are SCREWED - see, the rise in these asset classes is a bubble created by the sea of cash the fed has dumped into the system - this bubble, like all the others, WILL pop! we're probably getting close to the point where you want 1/4 in physical pms 1/4 in Tbills 1/4 in realestate and 1/4 in stocks - too much risk in piling all in to any one asset class but be advised - if/when this blows up again ALL asset classes are going to get fisted - some worse than others - there really is NO safe place to hide.

[Skilter]

No kidding about the safe place.

So - if timing is right, then the idea is to jump on the asset class "ship" of choice (i.e. gold, oil, stocks, bonds, or a combo of them, etc) to take the asset class ride up as the inflationary QE kicks in (dollars are worth less so stuff cost more of them) and then just before it crashes, to jump that particular asset class back into dollars?* Or, do you jump it into the next asset class on the rise?

The way I am reading things is that there will not be another asset class on the rise... so are we assuming we are going to all jump back into USDs?


*side question... what about jumping to another currency?

SIDE NOTE HERE for me... A good chunk of my stuff is in qualified plans that allow you to invest in the investment vehicle of your choice, i.e. ETFs and stocks. Thus, I can't just go "get all my cash".

[offshore44]

Originally posted by gates
S- well yes, but and its a BIG BUT, if your timing is off you are SCREWED ...
there really is NO safe place to hide.

Exactly. There is no safe place to hide, and it is becoming more evident to more people all of the time.

Even the rule of law is becoming less clear and certain as time passes. We have passed the event horizon in my opinion. Sure, there is money to be made. There is no guarantee that the fiat money that you have made is going to actually be a store of wealth that is usable or transferable. Physical assets are becoming riskier as time passes. I have a sneaking suspicion that the basic equation of a person's effort being worth a certain value is being distorted and hence there is no way to equate a unit of work to a unit of value that is commonly acceptable. If that is true - we are screwed at a very fundamental level.

[juanni]

Originally posted by Skilter


SIDE NOTE HERE for me... A good chunk of my stuff is in qualified plans that allow you to invest in the investment vehicle of your choice, i.e. ETFs and stocks. Thus, I can't just go "get all my cash".

Yes that was all part of the plan, forcing you to "invest" in Wall St. rather than local physical investments where you have more control, real estate, collector cars, parts kits,, etc... and couldn't be fleeced as easily. :sad:



...................juanni

[Skilter]

I know that now juanni... but when you been socking away 12%-15% for the last 20 years (Well, up until about 3 years ago when I got wise.) what are you going to do?

[gates]

what I would do is borrow the max allowed and diversify into hard assets...

[juanni]

Originally posted by Skilter
I know that now juanni... but when you been socking away 12%-15% for the last 20 years (Well, up until about 3 years ago when I got wise.) what are you going to do?

Well I am sure my circumstances were different from yours so I am not making that judgement.

But I never really invested in all that 401K scam and took the hit on my take home, then locally invested.

And with the few employer only contribution plans, I cashed those out when it was a low tax liability year for me.

So far I have been lucky. :uhoh:



..................juanni

[Skilter]

min. 4% match over 18 years... high income bracket... you diversify as much as you can and then pre-tax the rest. It looked great 10 years ago back when there was still a little trust in the rule of law.

[Skilter]

oh... and no borrowing excdept for first time home buy (funny huh?) and no cash out unless you quit.

[gates]

in that case id split it between a gold and or silver fund a Tbill fund that concentrates on the long end of the curve and a long non levered stock index fund- and be VIGILANT! be prepared to dump any and all if things start going south.

[Skilter]

funny... I did exactly that with the exception that I added OIL as an ETF position as well.

[gates]

heh - we'll see how well we can call markets - Im a stubborn bastard and have my chestnuts in the fire right now via SDS and spy puts:-)

remember - when trading mutual funds you can wait til just before the close to enter your order - they settle at days closing price from what i recall. Im ok at giving advice - terrible at taking my own:-) - should have been a broker...