PDA

View Full Version : Heh - now Bill Gross is on the KD bandwagon


gates
September 29, 2010, 09:42
ignore him if you like but for all his faults KD had this thing figured out A LONG time ago - AND warned us... if you were listening:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167788

carguym14
September 29, 2010, 12:16
Honestly,I don't see how anyone with half a brain couldn't see this coming years ago.

Ross Perot made a lot of sense a few years back-that's when I started really paying attention.

I'm just a regular guy though-Wall St and the markets are left to those smarter than me.I just look at things from my little view.

gates
September 29, 2010, 13:53
Bro - I think ALOT of people FELT that something was not right they just couldnt put their finger on it - I mean damn, how many friggin $80000 Escalades and million dollar homes can people really afford - THEY WERE EVERYWHERE - turns out - not that many:-)

2barearms
September 29, 2010, 22:12
Originally posted by gates
Bro - I think ALOT of people FELT that something was not right they just couldnt put their finger on it - I mean damn, how many friggin $80000 Escalades and million dollar homes can people really afford - THEY WERE EVERYWHERE - turns out - not that many:-)

Things aren't all that bad, really, I bid the railings on house the other day.
The total was $550,000.00 and no that was not what the house cost, it was
$50,000,000.00. Texas really is a state of mind.

gates
September 30, 2010, 00:06
.... how many $50 million dollar homes are out there? the Walmart clan built one here in PV about 4 years ago...

50,000 thousand or so square feet at a grand per with all that comes with that price tag:-)

.00001% of the population - yep - full blown recovery:-)

carguym14
September 30, 2010, 08:12
Actually,I was looking at the size/spending of government and the loss of our manufacturing to other countries.I didn't see then,and can't see now,how a country can run without making things.

I never really paid much attention to housing or consumer debt overall because everyone I knew never got into that.We all bought what we could afford and never went on the crazy buying binges.

Oh well,not much we can do at this point except watch history unfold.

Eric Bryant
October 01, 2010, 17:57
Meanwhile, KD sure has jumped on the inflation bandwagon pretty hard. Keep in mind that he not long ago claimed that inflation would be impossible without wage-driven demand pull; now, he seems to have changed his tune:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2193556

Lotsa bandwagon-jumping going on right now - seems that a lot of people are getting uncomfortable with their bandwagons of choice from the previous two years. That makes me feel like something big is about to break lose; the thing is, I'm guessing that a lot of bandwagon jumpers are right on this point, but wrong on the exact nature of our pending doom.

gates
October 03, 2010, 00:39
Eric - I think he was right - excluding commods (POMO $ didnt just buy stocks:-))- he's jumped on the HYPER I bandwagon which can only be caused by a currency collapse which is more likely than it was.

TheJokker
October 03, 2010, 08:32
a lower standard of living...

i remember a time when most families only had one car, one house and one television. it was during the 50's and 60's and america had the highest standard of living...

MtnWulf
October 03, 2010, 11:07
Apples and Oranges.

We can't buy a new 50's car or house or TV.

The houses back then had minimal or NO insulation, or circuit grounds or more than one bathroom.

What we have to look at is the interference of government taxes and regulations on the items over the past 50 years including inflation.

I would not want the health care of the 50's now.

Our "standard of living" has been influenced not just by the government, by by the consumer.

I don't think anyone will settle for a black and white TV.

As a builder I see useless and stupid regulations all the time that dramatically increase the cost of building, which the consumer ends up paying.

Same for the auto industry, wait until the fleet average for autos made in America to go to 39 miles a gallon and see what happens.

carguym14
October 03, 2010, 19:03
Originally posted by TheJokker
a lower standard of living...

i remember a time when most families only had one car, one house and one television. it was during the 50's and 60's and america had the highest standard of living...


And you have to remember the size of the population,the size of government,and the lack of unsustainable levels of debt.

MtnWulf summed it up pretty good-except for the tv part;the majority wont settle for basic tv-gotta have cable or satalite.

Eric Bryant
October 03, 2010, 19:38
Originally posted by gates
Eric - I think he was right - excluding commods (POMO $ didnt just buy stocks:-))- he's jumped on the HYPER I bandwagon which can only be caused by a currency collapse which is more likely than it was.

I'm pretty sure that if you go back and read his - and Mish's - stuff from late '08 and through '09, they were mocking anyone who thought possible inflation (in any form - regular or hyper). Oh well - I'm not going to mock anyone for demonstrating flexibility.

Eric Bryant
October 03, 2010, 19:41
Originally posted by TheJokker
a lower standard of living...

i remember a time when most families only had one car, one house and one television. it was during the 50's and 60's and america had the highest standard of living...

I'm glad to hear that American exceptional-ism is now being redefined downward into something like "we'll slip backwards a half-century or so, but everyone else will probably still suck worse".

Kinda curious to see what will happen with Jokker's brain when he finds that the average white-collar worker in Seoul or Shanghai has a better standard of living than some jackass IT consultant in Florida.

gates
October 03, 2010, 23:55
No Eric I'm sure you are right - KD was a confirmed deflationist! I am still in that camp on certain assets - housing - what I think EVERYONE missed was the "leak" due to POMO - we will NOT get inflation from traditional, historical, sources - we will get inflation through unprecidented, probably illegal actions from the FED and Treas.

NOONE! can put forth an accurate forcast if the GOVERNMENT is breaking the law!