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gates
September 06, 2010, 22:47
don't remember where - either TF or ZH - essentailly: the reason the fed and .gov have been so desperate to reflate the housing bubble - to include law breaking - is this: EVERYTHING is tied to the bubble priced housing mkt - the banks, pensions, muni funds, agency and derivs - if housing was allowed to fall and find it's PRICE DISCOVERY value it would destroy our economy - full stop!

I have thought this for a long time but have never seen it discussed by others.

Skilter
September 07, 2010, 01:11
Absolutely... everything... all our investments are based on muni bonds and treasuries. All those are substantiated by property taxes and income taxes for the people paying mortgages. You figure most are in escrow on a monthly basis and Whalah... when you have the majority of Americans as slaves to their home, what do you get?

I really dig you usual analysis, but this is an ancient simple one. Landowners, moneylenders, sharecroppers and taxes.

Skilter
September 07, 2010, 01:16
oh... and just an FYI... since you are online... I figure we get a small bank run based on the info this weekend on Af-gan.

richardrose67
September 07, 2010, 01:17
The value of my home has gone down a great deal , but my taxs are still what they were. They never go down.

Skilter
September 07, 2010, 02:06
you contest them (taxes)... they realize the new value and then lower them...

If you don't do that as we do in Texas, write your congressman. (like that will do any good...)

MtnWulf
September 07, 2010, 07:16
As a builder, I have seen drastic changes in the housing market over the past 3 years.

One thing that makes housing so important to the economy is that is one of the few manufacturing sectors that can't be shipped overseas.

In our county the Commissioners have postponed twice our property re-evaluations due to the drop in housing values, to keep revenues up.

They have also increased our county debt from 20 million to over 90 million dollars in 2 years. A recent referendum for a 1/4 % sales tax increase to fund additional debt was overwhelmingly voted down.

However, by state law they WILL have to re-evaluate properties in the next year or two. If the election goes the way it looks now, the entirely democrat county commission will be taken over by republicans, who will be stuck with this huge debt and a forced property re-evaluation which will reduce the county's tax income.

I'm sure they will get blamed for the mess that has been created here by the democrats who are pushing a copy of obamanomics here.

juanni
September 07, 2010, 09:18
Homeownership has evolved into a total liability with very little positive benefits.

It ties you to a location.
It is a highly visible tax source.
It is a falling asset.


Mom and apple pie are still good. :)


..............juanni

bykerhd
September 07, 2010, 09:37
I have to agree with juanni.
I'll have to have the equivalent of a fire sale to move my house in this market. When I get ready to move.
Fortunately, I have owned it for 30 years now and did not re-finance when all the "in-the-know" financial types were advising to "use" my "equity" and invest elsewhere. But, it would have been nice to have gotten the kind of price that the town appraised it for(taxes) a few years back.
Right before the bubble burst and the brown stuff hit the fan.:cry:

Unfortunately, the state and local governments are looking at their falling revenues and eyeing the one source they can easily find, and tax.
Real estate.
It doesn't matter if that horse is almost done in. They are going to load on more and ride it hard till it keels over and dies entirely.

I'm not sure about the mom and apple pie thing though. Depends where mom is, whether she has paid her taxes, etc.
Same with the apples and other ingredients in that pie.
Especially if we get saddled with a VAT.:uhoh:

Pistolwiz
September 07, 2010, 09:55
And I wonder how many of you still believe this is all by accident? By chance? Just the way the ticker goes? :rofl:

carguym14
September 07, 2010, 10:02
Originally posted by Skilter
oh... and just an FYI... since you are online... I figure we get a small bank run based on the info this weekend on Af-gan.



What info?Can you expand on why you think that??




My values didn't go up,but the property taxes on my home and business went up.I did not overpay for my house however.

Pistolwiz
September 07, 2010, 10:48
Originally posted by carguym14




What info?Can you expand on why you think that??




My values didn't go up,but the property taxes on my home and business went up.I did not overpay for my house however.


The US is planning to bail out the national bank of Afghanistan. Many billions more to foreigners. But none of your own tax money for us........ Unless your a large corporation that paid to get Barry Sotero in office that is...... They have to keep up the premise of 2 parties after all.......

Not by accident. Planned financial mayhem to rip off our own people even more.

Pistolwiz
September 07, 2010, 11:04
Originally posted by juanni
Homeownership has evolved into a total liability with very little positive benefits.

It ties you to a location.
It is a highly visible tax source.
It is a falling asset.


Mom and apple pie are still good. :)


..............juanni

If your looking to "invest" in a home for profit....By turning it over in time. Yes. I agree.

But if it's truly your home. An investment in your family and lifestyle. No. The asset is in always having a roof over our heads and fields to work and grow food. And we will defend it with great prejudice.

juanni
September 07, 2010, 11:08
Originally posted by Pistolwiz


Not by accident. Planned financial mayhem to rip off our own people even more.

I dunno, I think that it is simply the case of each individual parasite extracting as much blood as possible while the blood is there and flowing, knowing that all the other parasites are doing the same and not considering the ramifications of when the host dies or becomes aware of his condition and starts violently plucking them off and squashing them. :tongue:


..............juanni

juanni
September 07, 2010, 12:27
Originally posted by Pistolwiz

The asset is in always having a roof over our heads and fields to work and grow food. And we will defend it with great prejudice.

This isn't the rural 1900s. Only a very small percentage of homes in the US are that. A farmhouse on acreage sure!
But the typical suburban house, condo etc... with a tiny plot of land, taxes, water, sewer, garbage, HOA fees and high maintance because of poor construction and low cost materials??

Most homes are in a location that will prove detrimental IF unemployment stays high, and or fuel/energy/food shortages or large price increases occur.

And most have poor soil, sun light and a very low potential for producing food in the required volume to feed a family.


............juanni

Skilter
September 07, 2010, 12:32
I agree with most of what has been said ... It's a NWO pickle for sure...

I think it is intentional given the PTB, but we can always try to push that pendulum the other way to get new PTWs.

I am not sure what to do with my house... My wife loves it, but I hate it as it provides nothing but a roof in a suburban area.

tuck0411
September 07, 2010, 14:58
Originally posted by juanni


I dunno, I think that it is simply the case of each individual parasite extracting as much blood as possible while the blood is there and flowing, knowing that all the other parasites are doing the same and not considering the ramifications of when the host dies or becomes aware of his condition and starts violently plucking them off and squashing them. :tongue:


I mull this over, too. The alternative theory is that it's all planned, ala the Cloward-Piven Strategy, to intentionally wreck things so that a new social order or form of govt. can be established. I vacillate between the two theories, but I tend to think the PTB are too intelligent to not consider the consequences of their actions so I think I lean a bit more towards Cloward-Piven. Of course, the counter-argument is that intelligence on the part of the PTB would seem to conflict with their being able to leach off of the rest of us to the same extent they are now post-Cloward-Piven. What will there be left to leach once we've all become socialist drones in the new utopia?

Pistolwiz
September 07, 2010, 17:20
Originally posted by juanni


This isn't the rural 1900s. Only a very small percentage of homes in the US are that. A farmhouse on acreage sure!
But the typical suburban house, condo etc... with a tiny plot of land, taxes, water, sewer, garbage, HOA fees and high maintance because of poor construction and low cost materials??

Most homes are in a location that will prove detrimental IF unemployment stays high, and or fuel/energy/food shortages or large price increases occur.

And most have poor soil, sun light and a very low potential for producing food in the required volume to feed a family.


............juanni

No, it's not the 1900's. Your statement was a blanket statement covering ALL homes. Quote:

"Homeownership has evolved into a total liability with very little positive benefits.

It ties you to a location.
It is a highly visible tax source.
It is a falling asset."

If I bought it cheap. If it is at least somewhat sustainable and is mostly if not completely paid for. How is it a liability...Compared to renting/leasing?

Being tied to a location is good if your in the boonies and have secured the property. Which we have. Having more than one home/location is even better JIC.

Being able to modify the structure(s) or land to suit at will. Rather than having to rent another place that suits you. That's a biggie. Extra expense. Lost time. A bigger monthly payment that NEVER goes away because it can never be paid off..... That's the situation that is a nightmare to us. Not to mention being under the will of a landlord that can screw you over easily....

But hey....If renting is best for you. Go ahead. But not for everyone.

Watch the "blanket statements". There are exceptions to all rules.

Many folks are making decent money on small garden plots in suburbs and urban areas. Food is getting expensive. And will get more so in the very near future.

Good luck with your landlord(s)! Your paying his/her taxes! :wink:

juanni
September 07, 2010, 18:06
Originally posted by Pistolwiz


No, it's not the 1900's. Your statement was a blanket statement covering ALL homes. Quote:

"Homeownership has evolved into a total liability with very little positive benefits.

It ties you to a location.
It is a highly visible tax source.
It is a falling asset."

If I bought it cheap. If it is at least somewhat sustainable and is mostly if not completely paid for. How is it a liability...Compared to renting/leasing?


It was a general statement, and no it doesn't cover every situation but the vast majority of them. What statement ever does cover every situation???

If you have a home on rural, productive, fertile land with traditionally low property taxes, without govt provided sewer, water and garbage and paid little for it YES that is an asset.
But what percentage of homes in the US are in that catagory?
1%?
0.1%??
Less???


Oh and incidently I am currently renting and seaching for the above rural property to purchase with cash. ;)


...........juanni

Pistolwiz
September 07, 2010, 19:46
Originally posted by juanni


It was a general statement, and no it doesn't cover every situation but the vast majority of them. What statement ever does cover every situation???

If you have a home on rural, productive, fertile land with traditionally low property taxes, without govt provided sewer, water and garbage and paid little for it YES that is an asset.
But what percentage of homes in the US are in that catagory?
1%?
0.1%??
Less???


Oh and incidentally I am currently renting and seaching for the above rural property to purchase with cash. ;)


...........juanni

Way ta go man! :bow: Better get a move on. Closing takes time and time is not on your side.

Your right of course. But you'd be surprised how ingenuitive (coined word?) folks can be. Especially when hungry and broke. I know of folks building and being successful with "vertical gardens" in urban/suburban areas.

Never underestimate folks. They are capable of the greatest, and also the most infamous things.......

City water can be filtered.

It's also pretty easy to capture rain water from a roof and filter it. We're doing that now and you'd be surprised how much water a 40x60 ft roof can collect in even small rain events. Our greenhouses also collect water for their operations.

Having to be on sewer sucks. I never liked the way some cities force people on sewer when they never wanted it in the first place and there are no issues with their septic system that is causing damage to others.

I guess they put liens on a house that doesn't pay sewer. No idea. But I'd bet some city worker will come to your door and hassle you!!! Not to mention the nasty letters.........

Property taxes are high everywhere just about it seems. We pay much lower mil rate here in the boonies. Over valuation seems to be a problem in many areas. We're going through that now.

Just can't seem to get away from paying rent to the state for your own land! :mad:

Nomad, 2nd
September 08, 2010, 00:00
http://www.wimp.com/livingland/

Enquiring Minds
September 08, 2010, 01:11
Back to gates' OP, I'm with Skilter, i.e. I think it's seldom mentioned--at least all in one sentence/paragraph--because it's a given. OTOH, if housing really is the sine qua non of macro-econ, one wonders why the PTBs allowed it to be abused like a leaky kickball at elementary school.

The UPside to this slow-motion debacle, is we're going to get to see the faces of all those lazy overweight do-nothing gov't employees, when their "guaranteed" pension turns to dust... couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of UNdeserving parasites... I exclude most cops, firefighters in NON-padded locales, and paramedics... I'm talking of the vast number of useless paper-pushers... POOF!

Perhaps we can "transfer" them into... Soylent Green. :o

Pistolwiz
September 08, 2010, 01:26
Originally posted by juanni


I dunno, I think that it is simply the case of each individual parasite extracting as much blood as possible while the blood is there and flowing, knowing that all the other parasites are doing the same and not considering the ramifications of when the host dies or becomes aware of his condition and starts violently plucking them off and squashing them. :tongue:


..............juanni

The biggest leeches are too big to fail. Just ask GW or Barry!

Pistolwiz
September 08, 2010, 01:27
Originally posted by Enquiring Minds
Back to gates' OP, I'm with Skilter, i.e. I think it's seldom mentioned--at least all in one sentence/paragraph--because it's a given. OTOH, if housing really is the sine qua non of macro-econ, one wonders why the PTBs allowed it to be abused like a leaky kickball at elementary school.

The UPside to this slow-motion debacle, is we're going to get to see the faces of all those lazy overweight do-nothing gov't employees, when their "guaranteed" pension turns to dust... couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of UNdeserving parasites... I exclude most cops, firefighters in NON-padded locales, and paramedics... I'm talking of the vast number of useless paper-pushers... POOF!

Perhaps we can "transfer" them into... Soylent Green. :o

+1 :bow:

Skilter
September 08, 2010, 14:37
Originally posted by Enquiring Minds
Back to gates' OP, I'm with Skilter, i.e. I think it's seldom mentioned--at least all in one sentence/paragraph--because it's a given. OTOH, if housing really is the sine qua non of macro-econ, one wonders why the PTBs allowed it to be abused like a leaky kickball at elementary school.



I think it was because the PTB knew that it was another way to tie down the masses to the lowest common denominator on Maslow's heirchy of needs. Food and clothing can be exported and imported. Housing cannot... What you build stays here. You cannot export a house and you cannot import a house. It creates a manufacturing base that cannot be exported or imported and utilizes a heavy up front (and taxable) labor and materials cost and an ongoing taxable expense.

This is why housing was used... I would say it was pandora's box and once it was opened, well... we are witnessing the results.

The question now (especially for the PTBs) is how we get this thing back into the box without destroying the world and ourselves with it. I hate to do this, but to quote Yoda: "The fear of loss is a path to the dark side."

http://www.listphile.com/Yoda_Quotes_with_Video/The_fear_of_loss

Many people had many things to lose... funny ending to the video.

Eric Bryant
September 08, 2010, 18:46
Housing was an easy bubble to inflate:

- Central banks simplely had to keep rates low, and take advantage of all the capital that was saturating the books of net exporting nations.

- Our nation had the ability to create plenty of housing capacity.

- Housing was an easy sell from a societal standpoint. The "myth of home ownership" has been built up for decades. It didn't take much of a stretch to convince most Americans that they absolutely deserved 4000+ sq. ft. cardboard boxes.

- It was really easy to get the politically-powerful banks involved in this bubble.

- Housing had the ability to absorb a few million "undocumented guest workers".

I think housing was a target of opportunity for the bubble-blowers - nothing more. We needed either to create real structural change after the dot-com bubble, or we needed to prop things up for another few years. We picked the easier of the two options. It does not seem to be working out all that well.

I'm also on record here saying that the bubble was popped accidently, not on purpose. Too many of the PTBs got caught up in the bubble deflation process for it to be intentional. I honestly think there were (and still are) a sufficient number of idiots in government and finance for this whole mess to have been a series of really dumb decisions, and not some massive NWO conspiracy. I'm sure that plenty of others will step in and tell me how wrong I am, though - without providing any evidence :)