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View Full Version : Peter Schiff: "We're in the Early Stages of a Depression"


juanni
August 10, 2010, 13:19
Here is a good read on where the depression/recession may be taking us.

I like Peter and hs views, especially how assets that the lil peeps have will go down, wages, homes etc..
And needed essentials like food, energy and taxes will be going up.

peter schiff (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/08/09/peter-schiff-were-in-the-early-stages-of-a-depress.aspx)

I find the comments amusing.
Schiff is running for the Senate and Dodds vacating seat.
So many believe he is advocating slashing domestic and military spending, raising interest rates to pander to the voters and get elected. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Uhhhh..... where is this huge block of voters that really want slashed govt and higher interest rates? :confused:
In Connecticut???


................juanni

bykerhd
August 10, 2010, 16:05
Pretty sobering interview.
Although with Obummer at the helm and his trusty mates Reid and Pelosi keeping the ship of state in shape, I'm sure that the U.S.S. Titanic will safely negotiate the financial iceberg field we are now in.:rolleyes:
FULL STEAM AHEAD !!! :uhoh: :uhoh:

cpd109
August 10, 2010, 17:04
I don't know anything about him except for what I just read. I like it. And he has business experince. This is something only 7% of Barry's administration has. BYW, this is the lowest figure since they began recording such info. Do you suppose he came into the WH expecting to be a 1 term president? Something smells bad, and it ain't Giilliiee.

brunop
August 11, 2010, 01:08
I think he is a fall-guy/tool for much stronger and more intelligent people. It isn't going to look good, but they (who ever that is) are hoping that enough damage is done that the American public will beg for more Big Brother.

The die is cast.

Peace.

Enquiring Minds
August 18, 2010, 21:49
Schiff was very useful in sounding the alarm back in 2006-early2008, and debunking the real estate hype, I give him major kudos there...

... but once the balloon actually went up, he's just been SO wrong on hyperinflation, and understanding the reasons we don't have it, along with telling his peeps all the WRONG places to put their money (his fund/portfolio has been down HUGE), his IMAGINED strength of foreign markets, etc.

In short, he's like most of the Fed, i.e. he's just LOST and out of models when things swing to DEflation. Eventually, Gold kinda went his way... but he's forecasting "no upper limit"...

Karl D. just outruns him at every turn for the last 27+ months...

D P Six
August 19, 2010, 09:32
I can't imagine someone who's worth even half a crap getting elected in Connecticut. But stranger things have happened I quess.

juanni
August 19, 2010, 13:51
Originally posted by D P Six
I can't imagine someone who's worth even half a crap getting elected in Connecticut. But stranger things have happened I quess.

Well that race is over and a candidate that preached slashing spending was once again rejected by the voters. :(

The default/depression marchs on.




.............juanni

juanni
August 19, 2010, 14:08
Originally posted by Enquiring Minds
Schiff was very useful in sounding the alarm back in 2006-early2008, and debunking the real estate hype, I give him major kudos there...

... but once the balloon actually went up, he's just been SO wrong on hyperinflation, and understanding the reasons we don't have it, along with telling his peeps all the WRONG places to put their money (his fund/portfolio has been down HUGE), his IMAGINED strength of foreign markets, etc.

In short, he's like most of the Fed, i.e. he's just LOST and out of models when things swing to DEflation. Eventually, Gold kinda went his way... but he's forecasting "no upper limit"...

Karl D. just outruns him at every turn for the last 27+ months...

I think in the end Schiff will be proven right.

All the FEDs & govt intervention has propped up the system for a while, but I believe when confidence in the dollar erodes, and it will there will be no stopping the flood of foriegn dollars returning home.
It will be a fast turning event, not a slow chartable one. Then we will have serious inflation.

All the talk of current deflation is way overblown. Excluding RE, sure some prices have come down, but many essential things have gone up and will continue so.
Such as food, energy, govt taxes/fees/permits/services.

When I see a new, identical model gun, scope, car, motorcycle or machine tool selling for 25% less or so than a few years prior then we have deflation!
I haven't seen that.
Has anybody?



................juanni

Nomad, 2nd
August 19, 2010, 15:24
Bikes are DOWN.
I bought my 2005 BMW R1150R with about $2500 worth of "farcel" for $7500...

Guns... Seen class 3 reciently?

We've been "Waaaaaay back machined about 12 years in that department...

juanni
August 19, 2010, 19:55
Originally posted by Nomad, 2nd
Bikes are DOWN.
I bought my 2005 BMW R1150R with about $2500 worth of "farcel" for $7500...

Guns... Seen class 3 reciently?

We've been "Waaaaaay back machined about 12 years in that department...

When I see a new :)

That sounds like a used moto, and yes used everything has fallen in value because people are broke and need cash to eat.


.............juanni

gates
August 19, 2010, 20:26
J - you have not been paying attention, no velocity = no inflation. When dollars flow back to our shores the jig will be up:-) reset/default at that point.

MtnWulf
August 19, 2010, 21:06
I am seeing alot of Deflation in housing. Many houses here are being sold thru foreclosures or short sales for 50% or LESS of what they were originally put on the market for 3 to 4 years ago.

Some are selling for less than the build cost.

This means that ALOT of people are losing ALOT of money, while some with cash now are snapping up bargains.

When the market drives the cost of such a large item as a house, to the point that they sell for less than the build cost, then the industry is in serious trouble.

As for inflation, Gates is right. The velocity of money is way down, and likely to go down even more. When offshore dollars come home, say to buy depressed properties and businesses, then inflation will hit.

Girdle yer loins and sharpen yer axes, next year will be rough.

juanni
August 19, 2010, 21:18
Originally posted by gates
J - you have not been paying attention, no velocity = no inflation. When dollars flow back to our shores the jig will be up:-) reset/default at that point.

Yes the jig will be up, but how will reset or default occur overnight?

The problem directly won't be dollars flooding back in, but the hyperinflation that results from that flood.

I don't think we can or will have default/reset until panic and hyperinflation has run its course, then only when the usefulness and faith in the dollar is completely destroyed will govt/people be ready to move on to a new currency, default or whatever follows.


.............juanni

juanni
August 19, 2010, 21:21
Originally posted by MtnWulf
I am seeing alot of Deflation in housing. Many houses here are being sold thru foreclosures or short sales for 50% or LESS of what they were originally put on the market for 3 to 4 years ago.

Some are selling for less than the build cost.

This means that ALOT of people are losing ALOT of money, while some with cash now are snapping up bargains.

When the market drives the cost of such a large item as a house, to the point that they sell for less than the build cost, then the industry is in serious trouble.

As for inflation, Gates is right. The velocity of money is way down, and likely to go down even more. When offshore dollars come home, say to buy depressed properties and businesses, then inflation will hit.

Girdle yer loins and sharpen yer axes, next year will be rough.

Excluding RE :)

Lets try this again....
When I see a new, identical model gun, scope, car, motorcycle or machine tool selling for 25% less or so than a few years prior then we have deflation!
I haven't seen that.
Has anybody?

OK has anyone seen a model of gun (for example) that hasn't been cheapened etc that has a lower MSRP than the same item had 2 years ago?
When we see the same item increase in price or MSRP year after year we call that inflation.
Where are all examples of the inverse of that occurring?

And please lets not talk about chinese techo crap that always goes down in price as the novelity wears off and production increases.




..................juanni

gates
August 19, 2010, 21:28
Still thinking through the fall of the worlds reserve currency - it will be more complex than we imagine...

juanni
August 19, 2010, 22:37
Originally posted by gates
it will be more complex than we imagine...

Yes, but the bottom line is everyone, everywhere will have to come to realize that the dollars they have has no value.

How will that happen without the specter of ever growing piles of dollars required to buy anything first?

If for example tommorrow Uncle Ben declared the dollar totally valueless and that the US govt would no longer accept them into the country do you think people simply wouldn't just ignore him?

That smuggling of dollars into the country wouldn't occur?

That US citizens wouldn't just keep on using them, because well what else have they got?

A new currency can not be introduced and excepted overnight.

The dollar must die, and it will in a hyperinflationary super nova.
Or at least I think so. :)



...............juanni

TheJokker
August 20, 2010, 06:48
it is an interesting article but ignores the effects of the global economy. america may be royally screwed but what if the rest of the world is in even bigger trouble?

JohnnyV1966
August 20, 2010, 08:43
Originally posted by TheJokker
it is an interesting article but ignores the effects of the global economy. america may be royally screwed but what if the rest of the world is in even bigger trouble?

Questions remain as to who advocated the changes in the US Economy that enabled for this to occur. Lowered Tariffs, Offshoring and unchecked Immigration (Illegal and Legal) have all had the effect of damaging the US Economy. Over the years, Deindustrialization, persistent negative Trade deficits, several Jobless recoveries and the repeal of Glass Stegal and unregulated banking have put us on the road to economic decline. Who was advocating these changes? Who benefitted? Who lost?

Changing and Deregulation of the Banking System created "Happy Times" yet only created the illusion of wealth.

True enough while the US appears to get a Royal Screwing it is uncertain exactly how the rest of the world is in even bigger trouble. That is because most of the development in the Developing World came about at our expense. Clearly there will be better diets and living conditions in the future for those who previoulsly lived on the edge of starvation.

Personally I certainly hope that when times get really hard...those who Advocated and prospered from selling their own country down the path of Financial and Industrial ruin are held accountable. Clearly we will all be losers yet some folks need to be held accountable to their fellow citizens. Questions remain as whether there will be enough intelligence to do that even though greater awareness was made through hard times.

In my oppinion some took a shining city on a hill and put it on a path toward huts with rusting tin roofs, streets filled with pools of water and sewage and inhabitants living on the brink of starvation. Questions remain whether those citizens who advocated the benefits of the "Global Economy" and profited from them will ever be held accountable.

I fear the socialists will win at the polls and those of us still having money will pay through the nose for the Greed of the Disloyal Corporate Internationalists. What will ever become of our Second Amendment rights?

Who cares about how it will affect the rest of the world, its about US first

Enquiring Minds
August 23, 2010, 17:00
Originally posted by JohnnyV1966


Questions remain as to who advocated the changes in the US Economy that enabled for this to occur. Lowered Tariffs, Offshoring and unchecked Immigration (Illegal and Legal) have all had the effect of damaging the US Economy. Over the years, Deindustrialization, persistent negative Trade deficits, several Jobless recoveries and the repeal of Glass Stegal and unregulated banking have put us on the road to economic decline.

Who was advocating these changes? HINT: It wasn't the Irish... do your own homework.

Who benefitted? The Chosen

Who lost? Duh Gentile Sheeple.



And so it goes... over and over... ants being played on the ant farm. Pity.

gates
August 23, 2010, 19:22
J - been thinking about it - until our military and 6000 nukes become irrelevent I don't think the $ collapses - yep, it happened to Russia and it will eventually happen to us - eventually...

juanni
August 23, 2010, 22:26
Originally posted by gates
J - been thinking about it - until our military and 6000 nukes become irrelevent I don't think the $ collapses - yep, it happened to Russia and it will eventually happen to us - eventually...

Well I think the US can and has let the Oil Nations know what will and won't be tolerated.

However, it is a whole nuther story with Europe, Asia etc....
Their "leadership" wasn't installed and protected by the US.

What you going to threaten to nuke banks, hedge funds and nations that won't buy and hold treasuries? :wink:



...............juanni

TheJokker
August 24, 2010, 07:01
Originally posted by juanni


Well I think the US can and has let the Oil Nations know what will and won't be tolerated.

However, it is a whole nuther story with Europe, Asia etc....
Their "leadership" wasn't installed and protected by the US.

What you going to threaten to nuke banks, hedge funds and nations that won't buy and hold treasuries? :wink:



...............juanni

europe and the rest of the world is sucking on the american teat. if the american economy collapses so will all other world economies. if the global economy collapses where will the money come from to drive up prices?

Schiff: No. We're going to have falling stock prices and falling real estate prices. That's not deflation. Prices are rising. Oil is at $82 a barrel and rising. The Japanese yen is at a 15-year high against the dollar.

uhhh... peter... oil prices are dropping...

JohnnyV1966
August 25, 2010, 16:11
Originally posted by TheJokker


europe and the rest of the world is sucking on the american teat. if the american economy collapses so will all other world economies. if the global economy collapses where will the money come from to drive up prices?



uhhh... peter... oil prices are dropping...


Dropping Oil prices are an indication of a weak global market. Its likely only a matter of time before all the effects of the coming Economic crisis are fully realized.

JohnnyV1966
August 25, 2010, 16:14
Originally posted by Enquiring Minds


And so it goes... over and over... ants being played on the ant farm. Pity.


EM in that twisted mind of yours its always "da Joos" who are responsible for all of our problems and the worlds as well. How could that be? Especially when one considers how few in number the Jewish People really are.

JohnnyV1966
August 25, 2010, 16:20
Tell me EM why do you remind me of a guy who I went to High School with who on one Halloween dressed in an original SS Officers uniform and frequently stated whether in costume or not " It vas da Joos"

Today hes even more of a devout Christian, a Dentist and one who drills teeth and pulls teeth for his work, pleasure and joy.

For some reason I could picture you pulling someones gold fillings out as they scream in pain with you chanting the mantra of " Work makes you free!"

STGThndr
August 25, 2010, 18:15
Is it safe?

Enquiring Minds
September 02, 2010, 23:23
Originally posted by JohnnyV1966



EM in that twisted mind of yours its always "da Joos" who are responsible for all of our problems and the worlds as well. How could that be? Especially when one considers how few in number the Jewish People really are.

Well, they're few in number amongst, say, Midwestern dairy farmers--never a world-moving group anyway. OTOH, they make up virtually 100% of the Obummer Administration (and 97% of GW's), probably 66% of Wall St., and *THERE* you see, is what they call "leverage", si/no?

Canada couldn't get away with 10% of what Israel does... and THAT is what's "twisted".

The Joos ARE the highest IQ peeps on the planet, no gainsaying that... and if their ethics ever catch up, oh what a wonderful world it would be... until then, I have to keep my forearm-mounted switchblade veddy veddy sharp... I kid... I'm a kidder... mostly. :]

Enquiring Minds
September 02, 2010, 23:37
Back to Schiff's better advice, I note many of the big Canadian banks have branches in my AO... should probably monitor the FX for our respective fiat currencies, and pick a good day to open my "Canuck" account. :wink: