PDA

View Full Version : OK, so what mechanisms cause the false mid-spike in a DOUBLE DIP??


Enquiring Minds
June 28, 2010, 17:22
Aside from MSM cheerleading and subjective human nature factors, what are the actual lags/leads/M1-2-3/bond/etc. market processes which cause the UNsustainable first "peak" up in a double-dip depre... recession?

I don't discount fed.gov meddling, in fact, it may be the dominant faux-driver! :mad:

What say ye, RKIs?

gates
June 28, 2010, 22:12
Simple - a combination of Fed cash injected into the banks that found its way into the equity markets, the transfer of hundreds of billions in bad loans from the banks balance sheets to the Feds/OURS, and the slash and burn employment policies that allowed this countries corporations to show legit profits - unfortunately ALL of that does not a recovering economy make - it stabilizes the economy for AWHILE and then reality sets in - AT LEAST 30% of our economy, for the last 10 yrs at least, was driven by a credit bubble that has popped and despite BBs monumental, historical efforts to reflate aint coming back - you CAN'T borrow and spend your way into a new bull market when in the midst of a deflationary credit collapse - the rest of the world has this figured out based on last weeks G20 repudiation of Obummers call for continued Keynesian insanity - times up!

renaissance_warrior
June 28, 2010, 22:48
gates, you gave 9 answers to one question. Simple answer? Manipulation of both the bond and equity markets for the past 18 months. It really is that simple. If people (smart ones) were able to short financial stocks, as they have when the Free Market existed, the whole market would look a lot differently thant it does right now. Short positions create honest answers to tough questions I have found, to my benefit,


The Big Money is still able to write and purchase derivatives on the downfall without market regulation. It is no different than a Chicago bookie taking bets outside the legal Parimutual cages.

gates
June 28, 2010, 23:11
Ok Mark - but am I wrong?

renaissance_warrior
June 29, 2010, 00:41
Not wrong. but a shotgun answer. The true answer lies within the new rules.

Enquiring Minds
July 01, 2010, 11:47
Originally posted by renaissance_warrior
Short positions create honest answers to tough questions...


GREAT summation/quote. :bow:

By now, I expected to see some tell-all books about the BEHIND THE SCENES SHENANIGANS that MUST have been going on--in both FEDGOD and BIG WALL ST.--during the period between Bear-Stearns imploding (March 2008) and Lehman exploding (Sept. 2008).

I wonder if renwar will give us a thumbnail of what he knows HAD to be going on, to get from A to B.

I mean seriously, there's no way the "smart money" ever considered, for even a nanosecond, that Bear was an "isolated" incident... no way.

renaissance_warrior
July 01, 2010, 11:54
It was orchestrated first, by the deadly 'whisper game' that makes people like Soros rich on currency speculation. The game was rigged by Goldman, due to the simple fact that although they sold trillions of fetid CDO's with derivatives as a 'sweetener, they are the ONLY one that NEVER BOUGHT ANY because they knew what they really were. It really is that simple. The avalanche was caused by AIG not having the capital to 'make good' on the derivatives, and then the dominoes fell accordingly.

Enquiring Minds
July 09, 2010, 10:40
Originally posted by renaissance_warrior
It was orchestrated first, by the deadly 'whisper game' that makes people like Soros rich on currency speculation. The game was rigged by Goldman, due to the simple fact that although they sold trillions of fetid CDO's with derivatives as a 'sweetener, they are the ONLY one that NEVER BOUGHT ANY because they knew what they really were. It really is that simple. The avalanche was caused by AIG not having the capital to 'make good' on the derivatives, and then the dominoes fell accordingly.

WOW... :uhoh: I think we just saw Goldman become the FEDGOD... I wonder where they'll deploy The Seventh Fleet? :eek:

Any degree of truth to the "insider" take that Bear-Stearns was "marked for death" because, ten years earlier, they alone refused to chip in on the backroom Fed rescue mission to quietly unwind the crisis caused by the infamous hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, an event which was triggered, IIRC, by Russian debt default and/or Russian ruble collapse?

Thanks for all the "industry" insights.