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View Full Version : A glimmer of hope: some interesting shipping news


renaissance_warrior
June 23, 2010, 23:44
This looks pretty good, actually

6/18/10 Maersk, the world's biggest container shipping group, is warning of an unprecedented shortage of containers in the run-up to the peak shipping season on the back of a strong rebound in global trade.

6/10/10 Container traffic at major ports in India for the April-May period increased by 21 % YoY.

4/9/10 Oppenheimer analyst Scott Burk said the very large crude carrier day rate was about $59,000 Friday, up from about $20,000 to $30,000 a few weeks ago.

3/24/10 The Department of Transportationís second-highest official told senators that DOTís preference for freight shipping is keep goods on waterways and rail as much as possible, getting them away from trucks except for the final delivery

3/24/10 Figures from Hong Kong Airport Authority showed that cargo volume rose 30% YoY in February to 257,000 tonnes.

Air cargo demand is rocketing in response to global economic recovery, says Lufthansa Cargo CEO Carsten Spohr.

3/3/10 YoY container volumes on the transpacific eastbound trade from Asia to the US fell by 15.3% in 2009 to 10.1 million TEU

3/2/10 Shanghai, the world's second largest container port after Singapore, experienced a throughput increase of 18% to 2.24 million TEU in January, reported Xinhua.

Enquiring Minds
June 25, 2010, 11:40
I am in no way an ANALyst, especially of the transport/shipping sector, but I think even my amateur scalpel can dissect this bit of cheerleading:



6/18/10 Maersk, the world's biggest container shipping group, is warning of an unprecedented shortage of containers in the run-up to the peak shipping season on the back of a strong rebound in global trade.

a) no NUMBERS; b) no accounting for containers that were scrapped, retired, sold, and NOT replaced, 2007-present.

6/10/10 Container traffic at major ports in India for the April-May period increased by 21 % YoY.

IOW, we're comparing 2009 vs. 2010... how about 2005 vs. 2010? LOL

4/9/10 Oppenheimer analyst Scott Burk said the very large crude carrier day rate was about $59,000 Friday, up from about $20,000 to $30,000 a few weeks ago.

a) temp demand from Gulf oil spill; b) manipulated demand by Goldfilled-Sachs, Soros, and other non-Christian HOARDERS, lusting for another $4/gal summer. :mad:

3/24/10 The Department of Transportationís second-highest official told senators that DOTís preference for freight shipping is keep goods on waterways and rail as much as possible, getting them away from trucks except for the final delivery

IOW, *all* this data is dubious, unless plotted alongside TRUCKING data... which is anecdotally abysmal.

3/24/10 Figures from Hong Kong Airport Authority showed that cargo volume rose 30% YoY in February to 257,000 tonnes.

Trend, or outlier? Need more context... and my nephew the newly minted actuary.

Air cargo demand is rocketing in response to global economic recovery, says Lufthansa Cargo CEO Carsten Spohr.

"Rocketing"? Is that a numerical value? (*insert Saturn V launch footage here :tongue: *)... and what "recovery"???

3/3/10 YoY container volumes on the transpacific eastbound trade from Asia to the US fell by 15.3% in 2009 to 10.1 million TEU

Uh yeah, at least... is this 2009 snapshot supposed to validate the rest?

3/2/10 Shanghai, the world's second largest container port after Singapore, experienced a throughput increase of 18% to 2.24 million TEU in January, reported Xinhua.

Maybe it's all going to the Indian ports mentioned above, lol.

aardq
June 25, 2010, 20:47
What do "YoY" and TEU mean?

Thanks,
Dan

renaissance_warrior
June 26, 2010, 17:48
Year over year and to end user (customer recieving the shipment)

aardq
June 27, 2010, 09:12
A Big Thanks Ren Warrior, Now it makes more sense.

Dan

Enquiring Minds
June 27, 2010, 12:04
Actually, in this context, "TEU" stands for "twenty-foot equivalent unit", i.e. a std. 20' long metal shipping container, of which, IIRC, 2 can fit on a tractor-trailer, and I forget how many on a rail car, barge, or C5-A Starlifter.

;)

Anyway, it sounds like the world's two most populous nations (China, India) are restarting THEIR economies, without waiting for the USrael bankster fraud to subside... good for them.

evan price
June 28, 2010, 02:43
Someone's pulling figures out of their arse again.

To rebut, all you need to do is look at the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI is a measure of how much it costs to ship goods across the ocean. More cargoes, less available ships means higher BDI.
As I type it is 2501.00 which is the same neighborhood it has been inhabiting for quite a while.
In mid-2008 it was around 12,000.
By end of 2008 it was around 650, lost almost 95%.
It's been under 3000 pretty much ever since.

The BDI shows no change in cargoes, shipping, or demand, other than normal periodic seasonal fluctuations.

TheJokker
June 28, 2010, 06:42
china must keep idle hands busy...

(massive government stimulation to avoid civil unrest amoung hungry peasants)

yarro
June 28, 2010, 23:49
There are lots of shipping containers sitting at end destinations since it was cheap in 2008 to simply buy the container instead of unpack it. Shipping the empty container back to a freight terminal just so it would sit unused wasn't cost effective for the shippers. Many ships weren't going back to a port, but being mothballed until volume goes up. A friend has 3 now. All are still OK to ship overseas with. It the price of the containers go up, a lot of them will end up getting sold back to shipping companies and sent back over to China, but I am not seeing the price of the containers rising, just lots of ads from companies trying to sell them. I believe that they are short in Asia, but not over here.

-yarro

renaissance_warrior
June 29, 2010, 00:43
Evan, this was the DBI site that I quoted from.