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Heat
October 14, 2008, 01:30
Anyone hear of/have access to the information that breaks down crime stats--in particular are WHO are commiting the crimes..I heard that minorities are largely responsible..that if we were to eliminate the Hispanic and black crime (largely urban) that the U.S. would be a fairly civilized place, comparable to most European countries..anyone know the validity of this? I have friends that need some convincing..they have sold their guns and are voting for Obama based on the propaganda of his campaign and they recently saw 'Bowling for Columbine' and beleive all that tripe..now they dont like semi-autos, pistols---its a complete 180 for them..shocking really

Azrial
October 14, 2008, 01:59
Your theory is quite correct in my experience.

I did a break done post on here sometime back. Sorry I do not have the URL handy.

I used mostly prison stats, which the liberals will argue is because police are biased toward black offenders.

But liberals are like that.

justashooter
October 14, 2008, 07:19
i am not a racist, but having eyes that see and ears that hear, i believe that while color is not an issue, ethnic culture is.

google is your friend:

before you read the FBI UCR page, read the census page to see what percentage of people in the US are black:
http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_race.html
2000 year report: looks like 12% of people in US are black, to me. this consistently from 1980 to 2000. interestingly enough, whites have fallen from 79% in 1980, to 69% in 2000. hispanics increase has caused most of this shift going from 6.5 to 12.5, with asian going from 1.5 to 3.7 in same period. change in minor segments of the population and an added category for bi-racial, at 1.6% in 2000, explains the seeming contradiction in totals.

______________________________

now for what you have been waiting for.
base page:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm
2007 statistics:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/arrests/index.html
In 2007, 75.8 percent of all persons arrested were male, 81.8 percent of persons arrested for violent crime were male, and 66.6 percent of persons arrested for property crime were male. (See Table 42.)
The majority (69.7 percent) of persons arrested in 2007 were white. Whites accounted for 58.9 and 67.9 percent of persons arrested for violent crimes and property crimes, respectively.
White juveniles comprised 67.0 percent of juveniles arrested in 2007.
Black juveniles accounted for 50.7 percent of juveniles arrested for violent crime, and white juveniles comprised 65.7 percent of juveniles arrested for property crime. (See Table 43.)

race tables:
in cities:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_43.html
blacks commit 50% of murders, 33% of rapes, 56% of robberies, 40% unlawful weapons carrying.
metro counties:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_55.html
blacks commit 36% of murders, 23% of rapes, 53% of robberies, 34% unlawful weapons carrying.
non-metro counties:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_61.html
blacks commit 26% of murders, 14% of rapes, 44% of robberies, 21% unlawful weapons carrying.
suburban areas:
blacks commit 42% of murders, 25% of rapes, 52% of robberies, 33% unlawful weapons carrying.
in all areas:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_43.html
composit result.

looks to me like blacks commit 2-4 times as much violent crime as they should, and that you are statistically most likely to be a victim of a violent black criminal in cities and suburban areas, with metro counties less so, followed by non-metro counties. this makes sense, as blacks as a percentage of the general population are distributed in such a manner.

_____________________________

what is interesting, is the rate of current incarceration. this kind of thing is hard to find in a google search. most replies to a google querry are heavily biased complaints, alleging that blacks are not treated the same as whites for similar crimes. this may be so in non-violent crimes due to poor legal representation and thereby reduced ability to avoid incarceration, but last i checked, white people serve time for murder too. seems to me that the higher rate of violent criminal activity among blacks explains the higher incarceration rate. blacks get more time for murder and rape than whites do for fraud and drunk driving. i have no problem with that, and the statistics back me up.

this 2001 report is illuminating:
http://www.sentencingproject.org/Admin/Documents/publications/rd_staterates.pdf

in penna, 2.5% of blacks and 0.24 % of whites are in jail at any given moment.
in texas it's 3.3% and .64%. in most states the ratio is between 4 to 1 and 7 to 1. hawaii is the only state that comes close to parity, with .6% to .45%. nationwide, the numbers look like 2.2% to .37%, for a 6 to 1 disproportional incarceration rate.

a similar 2000 report confirms, and increases the noted differential, again claiming injustice in the process:
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2000/usa/Rcedrg00-01.htm
a comparable table from the report giving rate by state:
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2000/usa/Table5.pdf
"The disproportionate representation of black Americans in the U.S. criminal justice system is well documented. Blacks comprise 13 percent of the national population, but 30 percent of people arrested, 41 percent of people in jail, and 49 percent of those in prison. Nine percent of all black adults are under some form of correctional supervision (in jail or prison, on probation or parole), compared to two percent of white adults. One in three black men between the ages of 20 and 29 was either in jail or prison, or on parole or probation in 1995. One in ten black men in their twenties and early thirties is in prison or jail. Thirteen percent of the black adult male population has lost the right to vote because of felony disenfranchisement laws. (eta- unless they meet an acorn)

Nationwide, black men are incarcerated at 9.6 times the rate of white men. ...Because of their extraordinary rate of incarceration, one in every 20 black men over the age of 18 is in a state or federal prison, compared to one in every 180 whites...Men constitute 93.5% of all inmates."

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even more interesting is the fact that the persons currently incarcerated are removed from the general population and not commiting crimes freely, so this factor must be adjusted into the equation. if a lot of blacks are in jail, then the ones not in jail must be commiting crimes at a rate that calculates as even higher per capita than you would think.

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data on hispanic criminal activity is hard to come by. hispanics were grouped with whites until recent years, and some researchers believe that anglo whites are taking a black eye on behalf of hispanics, who commit crimes at a higher rates than anglos, and for crime reporting statistics, are usually grouped with anglos.

here is an example of what is out there:
http://www.vdare.com/rubenstein/061215_nd.htm

"Ideally, we would like to examine data on offenses and arrests by race and Hispanic ethnicity. Unfortunately, the Department of Justiceís crime stats lump Hispanic perpetrators in with non-Hispanic whites. This has the effect of narrowing the gap between black and white crime rates (by inflating the white rate) while suppressing information on Hispanic criminality.

Inescapable conclusion: many DOJ bureaucrats are too PC to present the truth on immigrant, largely Hispanic, criminality. Luckily, the folks who prepare the incarceration statistics for DOJ didnít get the memo. Their statistics distinguish between Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and non-Hispanic black prisoners. (Wow! Can data for the foreign-born of each group be far behind?) These incarceration statistics also show the type of crime for which prisoners of each race were convicted.

In 2003, the latest available data, there were 219,200 Hispanics in state correctional facilities and 39.9 million Hispanics in the U.S. population. Thatís an incarceration rate of 549 per 100,000 population.

The incarceration rate for non-Hispanic whites was 230 per 100,000óor less than half the Hispanic rate.

The black incarceration rateó1,580 per 100,000ó was 2.9-times the Hispanic rate and 6.9-times the white rate.

For every offense except fraud, Hispanic incarceration rates were above those of whites. (Table 1.) For example:

Murder: Hispanic: 72 per 100,000 white: 24 per 100,000
Robbery: Hispanic: 71 per 100,000 white: 20 per 100,000
Assault: Hispanic: 70 per 100,000 white: 20 per 100,000
Drug offenses: Hispanic: 126 per 100,000 white: 33 per 100,000
Motor vehicle theft: Hispanic: 12 per 100,000 white: 4 per 100,000

Harvardís Professor Sampson does not deny the incarceration rate gap, and even acknowledges that Hispanic crime may be underreported because of immigrantsí aversion to interacting with the authorities. Yet he insists the higher immigration, lower crime linkage is real."

another interesting page, with color maps that are really shocking:
http://www.vdare.com/Sailer/050213_mapping.htm

"Nationally, Hispanics are on average 3.7 times as likely as whites to be imprisoned.

The most unequal ratio is seen in the Mid-Atlantic, where the bad behavior of Puerto Ricans and Dominicans contrasts sharply with the good behavior of Italians, Jews, and Yankees...

The Hispanic crime rate is lower than the African-American mark. But at the current pace of immigration, legal and illegal, the number of Hispanic criminals should exceed the current number of black criminals within a few decades.

Immigrants may not have built America, but they are certainly building its prison population."

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one feature of the question that i do not often see mentioned is the age distribution demographic. as a result of roe v wade, there are less younger whites in the white population as a whole today than there were in 1970. roe v wade seems to have had little effect on blacks and hispanics, despite the claims of those who decry abortion as a genocide of ethnic minorities. the reverse is actually the case.

persons most likely to commit a violent crime are men between the ages of 17 and 35. about 30 million white children have been aborted since 1970 (another crime of violence better discussed in another thread, and telling in the population shift figures already quoted). less than 2 million black children were aborted in the same period. it could be that whites are just aging out, and that recent reductions in violent crime between 1990 and 2000 were related to the large scale legalised murder of white children beginning in 1970, more than anything else. you will never hear gun control proponents talking about this, that's for sure. i am sure the hispanics will pick up the slack for us, as is already evidenced by increases in violent crime per capita in recent years.

in any case, pennsylvania law enforcement must have had enough of it. the hispanic incarceration rate in penna is through the roof. higher per capita than the black incarceration rate. i knew those guys in the funny hats were good for something.

hagar
October 14, 2008, 07:40
It is too bad that we would have to resort to uncivilized acts to become civilized again, if you catch my drift...

Tsm002
October 14, 2008, 07:57
The uniform crime report is a good base to see where you want to go to study something else in depth.

As far as an indicator for crime nationwide, it sucks. Big time. The FBI is well aware of this and often cautions about misuse of the statistics contained therein.
Keep in mind that the study is using arrest rates- does not go through the entire appeals process. You would be amazed at how many arrests end up overturned at some point, particularly for petty offenses.

From the FBI itself regarding the study in its "more on the data" section:

"Since crime is a sociological phenomenon influenced by a variety of factors, the FBI discourages data users from ranking agencies and using the data as a measurement of law enforcement effectiveness."

Also a problem: the FBI does not type classify the data, each individual reporting department does. When you have cities and states with differing definitions on what "rape" is or on what "assault" is this can cause a problem when we're talking about police officers entering this data in who aren't trained statisticians.

" To ensure these data are uniformly reported, the FBI provides contributing law enforcement agencies with a handbook that explains how to classify and score offenses and provides uniform crime offense definitions. Acknowledging that offense definitions may vary from state to state, the FBI cautions agencies to report offenses not according to local or state statutes but according to those guidelines provided in the handbook. Most agencies make a good faith effort to comply with established guidelines."

" Finally, in a given year, nearly 17,000 agencies contribute data to the FBI; however, because of computer problems, changes in record management systems, personnel shortages, or a number of other reasons, some agencies cannot provide data for publication."

The number of departments with shortages is astounding. Frankly the UCR is on the back burner for many- which leaves out rural areas and those metro districts under a budget crunch.

Justashooter,
You're making a huge ecological fallacy here. The most obvious variable is indeed race- you're right in that the statistics are showing that blacks are committing these crimes. However,is the cause of the criminal activity the race? No. The UCR fails to take class into account as well as dependency of a given population on socially limiting factors such as welfare or dual income families who cannot spend any time with their kids. It also fails to take into account social organizations prominent in black urban communities which are conducive to violent crime and very difficult to weed out such as gangs or radical agitators.

To say that blacks are committing 2-4 times the amount of crimes that they "should" be ignores the social background that even the FBI cautions against ignoring- how much "should" blacks be committing given the social factors surrounding the areas in which they live, work and go to school at?

So is the problem the race or the environment in which said race operates? White people growing up in largely single parent or dual income households in run down areas which have been traditionally redlined and whose schools receive minimum funding and motivation would tend towards the same behavior, especially if there are active gangs enticing youth in. Same with asians, native americans, whatever.

So no, blacks don't commit 2-4 times the amount of violent crime than they "should". And whites don't commit, inversely, 2-4 times "less" than they should. You're establishing a norm that doesn't exist- comparing downtown detroit to rural nebraska is an apples to oranges comparison sociologically, as is comparing a black section 8 residential area to a gated white community. Different social ills, different crime rates.

Look beyond race as the indicator for criminal activity and look towards the pervasiveness of negative social groups such as gangs, corruption in police and government, disparity in access to educationa nd health care, over-reliance on welfare and consumerist behavior that encourages people to put themselves in the hole instead of making a nest egg and you'll begin to see the social background the FBI was talking about in their warning about the data. With this you find the most effective ways to deal with crime in the long run.

As far as whites being in jail for murder too-

This is true, and I agree with you that saying that the CJ system is fundamentally biased racially is wrong. Good call there. The law is the law- maybe the jury will be biased, but in that case any attorney worth their salt can call shenanigans on it and move to do something about it.

Data for hispanics is not hard to come by whatsoever. Every single state demographic form that I've worked with so far has a separate variable marked for "non-caucasian hispanic"; oftentimes this is broken down in cuban, puerto rican, etc etc to more effectively target crime that is migrating over from those areas (MS13, narcoterror). If hispanics get lumped with caucasians then I would question the integrity of the researchers involved, the manner in which the data is collected and the adherence to their methodology, because separating hispanics and whites is old hat.

Expect the number of hispanics committing crime to rise very sharply in thenear future as this data gets entered in. Also- food for thought:

Illegals who get deported- are they counted?

Are close knit ethnic groups (enclaves of immigrants, legal or not) less likely than normal to even report crime?

How much narcoterror crime is even in the UCR given the secretive nature of it and operatives slipping back across the border?

Very big headache for a demographer.

justashooter
October 14, 2008, 08:01
i don't make the news. i just write it. but if it gets too bad to write, i'll start making it, and not writing it.

my wife called this morning to tell me about something that happened on her drive home from work yesterday. she passes through a less desireable neighborhood for a stretch of about a mile in the afternoons.

some little ****** shot a BB gun at her open window, and the pellet hit her on the arm. i would imagine they did this because she is not black. she's asian. i told her to drive a mile out of her way to avoid this area in future, and to keep her windows up and doors locked if she has to pass through places like this.

Racial slur edited - mind your language. AndyC

justashooter
October 14, 2008, 08:46
Originally posted by Tsm002

1.) The uniform crime report is a good base to see where you want to go to study something else in depth. As far as an indicator for crime nationwide, it sucks. Big time.

2.) Keep in mind that the study is using arrest rates- does not go through the entire appeals process. You would be amazed at how many arrests end up overturned at some point, particularly for petty offenses.

3.)"Since crime is a sociological phenomenon influenced by a variety of factors, the FBI discourages data users from ranking agencies and using the data as a measurement of law enforcement effectiveness."

4.) Also a problem: the FBI does not type classify the data, each individual reporting department does. When you have cities and states with differing definitions on what "rape" is or on what "assault" is this can cause a problem when we're talking about police officers entering this data in who aren't trained statisticians.

5.) " To ensure these data are uniformly reported, the FBI provides contributing law enforcement agencies with a handbook that explains how to classify and score offenses... Most agencies make a good faith effort to comply with established guidelines."

6.) You're making a huge ecological fallacy here.

7.) The most obvious variable is indeed race- you're right in that the statistics are showing that blacks are committing these crimes. However,is the cause of the criminal activity the race? No.

8.) To say that blacks are committing 2-4 times the amount of crimes that they "should" be ignores the social background that even the FBI cautions against ignoring- how much "should" blacks be committing given the social factors surrounding the areas in which they live, work and go to school at?

9.) comparing downtown detroit to rural nebraska is an apples to oranges comparison sociologically, as is comparing a black section 8 residential area to a gated white community. Different social ills, different crime rates.

10.) As far as whites being in jail for murder too-

11.)This is true, and I agree with you that saying that the CJ system is fundamentally biased racially is wrong. Good call there. The law is the law- maybe the jury will be biased, but in that case any attorney worth their salt can call shenanigans on it and move to do something about it.

12.) Data for hispanics is not hard to come by whatsoever. Every single state demographic form that I've worked with so far has a separate variable marked for "non-caucasian hispanic";

13.) Illegals who get deported- are they counted?

14.) Are close knit ethnic groups (enclaves of immigrants, legal or not) less likely than normal to even report crime?

15.) Very big headache for a demographer.

1.) it's what we got, and everybody who is anybody references it.

2.) arrest rates are arrest rates. prison population rates are, in part, an indication of the validity of the arrests. since it is clear that blacks are being arrested in higher proportion for more serious crimes, your logic indicates that they are more likely to be tried and convicted.

3.) the question asked and answered was not in reference to sociological factors or evaluation of the efficiency of police departments. it was in reference to crimes commited and recorded. the cause of the crime is not at issue. a judge doesn't care if you were born poor or rich when you commit a violent crime, in most cases.

4.) we can see a pattern in the statistics. murder, rape, robbery, assault, they all follow the same general pattern. the stats i referenced were in regard to forcible rape, so there is an element of violence in the crime.

5.) it seems the cops are doing a good job telling us what is happening.

6.) i'm not talking about trees, or tree frogs, or birds in the trees...

7.) doesn't matter what the cause of the criminal activity is. if the man robbing you or killing you is black, he is black. his motivation for doing so is another matter, entirely.

8.) semantics. i used the word "should" as a way to avoid typing more. i "should" have written that they are commiting crimes at a rate per capita of 2-4 times the rate at which whites do, per capita. actually, when you factor the rate of incarceration differential per capita the numbers are even worse, as noted elsewhere in my post.
you seem to be giving blacks an out in your response, explaining that they are commiting more violent crimes because of environmental factors. doesn't matter what the cause of the criminal activity is. if the man robbing you or killing you is black, he is black. his motivation for doing so is another matter, entirely.

9.) the UCR is divided by environment, as noted in my original post, into urban, suburban, metro county, and non-metro county. the differential exists in all, but more markedly so in areas of high black population concentrations.

10.) they are. my ex-live-in-shrink was divorced from a guy doing life in jessup for murdering his grandparents with a baseball bat. never forget the time he called while i was busy shagging her on her living room floor one afternoon. i was not yet aware of her life before the day i met her. she grabbed the phone and acepted the collect charge and started talking to him without breaking rhythym. i didn't care, cause i wasn't interested in her mouth at that moment, anyway. 5 minutes later she told him goodbye and stopped me to explain that the call was from her ex, who was in jail for murder. i stopped breathing until she told me he was in for life, after which i went back to work. funny as hell in retrospect.

11.) the system is not flawed. the differential in representation is just a normal feature of it.

12.) the seperation is relatively new.

13.) they get counted if they're in prison. twice a day.

14.) immigrants are less likely to report crime, in general. illegals fear deportation, and legals often don't understand or feel they have a right to protection under the law. in the lower class mexican culture they don't even think certain activities we jail for are crimes. "rapio", or the raping of a young girl, is not considered a crime if the guy wants to marry her. in the mexican culture it doesn't matter what she or her family thinks about the act. he gets a buy on it, anyway, even if he throws her away when he looses interest a few months later and moves on to the next town and next victim.

15.) violent crime is more than a headache, in most cases.

you seem like a reasonably well educated guy, my friend, but you lack street smarts. you are more likely to be killed by a black or a mexican than i am, because you refuse to admit that they are, statistically, more dangerous to be exposed to. you are hung up on reasons why they behave the way they do, and rationalise away the facts of the matter in the process.

may the angel of the lord be upon you. he has a way of taking care of fools and children.

Heat
October 14, 2008, 13:55
Justashooter--

crime stats
Thanks a load for the stats..I emailed them to my nutty friends..the women actually beleives that most of this is white americas fault..as well she is using the old tired argument that if we cant have nukes why should we have firearms..I explained that thermal-nuclear weapons werent defensive weapons..I dont think it sank in..like most people that are whipped up into a liberal fervor she thinks any referenence on my part to the ethnic/racial makeup of the criminals is a tantamount admittance to belonging to the KKK or aryan nations..I have alot to unravel!

ostrobothnian
October 14, 2008, 14:27
Holy crap. The truth is racist. ;)

Azrial
October 14, 2008, 15:41
Originally posted by ostrobothnian
Holy crap. The truth is racist. ;)
The label of Racism is often used to gag the truth. People would rather swear by an obvious lie then risk that terribly destructive label.

justashooter
October 14, 2008, 21:48
the truth is color blind.