RED FLAGS GOING UP!!!

[danimal]

Anyone see the Presidents Press Conference this morning?

He mentioned a plan to activate the military to handle a quarantine for the avian flu should a pandemic occur. He wants the military to take charge of the situation over FEMA or CDC. He said that quarantining airports is easy but it will take the military to "control" people moving in and out of the infection area.

On the CDC website...
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm
it says the mortality rate for the current H5N1 is 50%

but read the article from WHO...
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/

Recent research has shown that viruses of low pathogenicity can, after circulation for sometimes short periods in a poultry population, mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. During a 1983–1984 epidemic in the United States of America, the H5N2 virus initially caused low mortality, but within six months became highly pathogenic, with a mortality approaching 90%.

these viruses can mutate in 6 months, but an outbreak here could last several years

so here is the point and the key facts:
the virus is now a large concern (we've discussed this here before)
it WILL mutate faster than we can handle with current resources
mortality rate will exceed 80%
CDC and FEMA will be overwhelmed
quarantines will occur (using military to control the ground)

are you prepared to be caught behind that line?
what about crossing that quarantine?

honestly, I know Im not even close to being prepared to SIP for that one!
guess I better make sure I have a bugout route to go ANY direction!
since I have large cities in almost every direction I think an outbreak here (central NC) could spread like wildfire. I dont think anyone could be prepared to totally seal themselves off from contact for the amount of time that a pandemic could occur. We are not talking days or weeks but months, years.

never really thought of buying a gas mask but if it would help with this then I might have to check on one.

[Plain George]

Well, I know we are all paranoid about using federal troops for control of civilian populations, I am also..
BUT
in the event of a national disaster like the bird flu could turn out to be...how else do you keep it confined except with the vast numbers of federal troops available.?
I think if the danger is known and the object is clear, then their use is warranted.
It is when the 'round up' people for little or no reason that I become VERY concerned..
PS...gas masks are $10 each,,,,,dont know if they work against flu viruses tho.

[fastfreddy]

A pandemic will NOT be contained by military totalitarianism. Once instituted, that military authority will become permanent.

[danimal]

dont get me wrong I agree with the troops to effect a quarantine but here is the deal. your IN the quarantine area, but no symptoms. Do you stay and see what happens, I think if you do you would be symptomatic very soon! and if this thing mutates as fast as they say... it would be very bad. It would be like stephen kings book "The Stand" minus the good vs. evil plot... at least minus his version of it. My problem isnt so much that I dont like the troops, I doubt the .govs ability to do anything. therefore, cross the line and reach an isolated area (to protect you AND make sure if your a carrier you dont spread it)

read the white papers on this thing, if birds are contaminated its dangerous but controlable. if humans get infected and these people have had the flu (human variety) recently... it mutates at this point it is POSSIBLE for it to become an air borne virus (this has happened in s e asia) this is when mortality rates will almost double

[sslocal]

I had a long reply all figured out but I decided not to post it because some folks may think it a bit insensitive.

This bird flu thing is bad for 3rd world contries and the unprepared. Lets hope we don't fall into the latter catagory.

[Enquiring Minds]

What Plain George said. I'm as Pro-Posse Comitatus as the next EBR owner, but if you're IN a quarantine area--which means you were POSSIBLY exposed--and you have a "tinfoil moment" and decide to elude, or even FIGHT, troops, in order to "escape", then you are a ROYAL ASSHOLE, for at least the following reasons:

1) A quarantine is a PROVEN method for fighting pandemics, plagues, etc... we're still decades away from having the nanotechnology of "dial-in-a-cure".

2) Your tinfoil theories do NOT give you the right to go off and INFECT OTHERS just to make you feel like Rambo, and "I beat The Man", etc. GROW UP.

3) The healthcare professionals and VACCINES are going to be pouring INTO the quarantine zone, so if you "escape", you're NOT going to get what you need... IDIOT.

DON'T be part of the problem, be part of the solution.

[danimal]

you need to read the white papers on this THERE IS NO VACCINE!
influenza vaccines have NO effect after mutating to H5N1 (not a virus at all but a designation of a hybrid virus type)
re-read my post please, like I said NO SYMPTOMS, it might be better to get to your OWN quarantine area cause if you stay in a quarantine area your sure to get this thing.
READ THE WARNINGS! they're at the web sites in the post
its not tinfoil theories and I have no images of rambo (please, he didnt just say that did he?)

just a personal note: post whatever opinions you have, thats why I started this to get other peoples view point, but keep your insults to your self.
(and he tells me to grow up?)

[jamesq]

if you're in a quarantine area, they are expecting you to get sick and recover or die. if you haven't been exposed and get shut in- then your goose has a 90% chance of being cooked, eh? alot of people with colds and the regular flu might be [misunder]diagnosed and put in with the avian crowd. sooooo, what to do, hmmmmm.

[.308 for life]

I have been reading some interesting info on elderberries & the bird flu.Here are some highlights from http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/index.html


Crushing/grinding ther berries is real hard to do and it makes a "gritty" tincture not necessarily "better." The 18-24 months is the potential duration of a pandemic which is predicted, based on the Spanish flu oa 1918, to comes in 3 different waves each wave lasting about 6-8 weeks with 3-4 months between waves and each wave being a slightly different mutation of the original flu virus so... you take the elderberry when each wave is rolling through your AO until the wave is gone then quite taking until the next wave. I figure, as previously stated, about a quart of tincture per person at a minimum. The elderberry does NOT prevent flu, it prevents it from replicating in the body's cells thereby keeping the immune system from being overloaded and attacking the body itself also know as a cytonic storm which is what has been killing the folks that have gotten H5N1. The H5N1 virus settles in the lungs, the immune system goes into overdrive, and the lungs fill with fluid, and you drown very quickly - a matter of a day or so once the storm begins. By keeping the viral load low taking elderberry, one has a very good chance of avoiding a cytonic storm, and having very mild flu symptoms, and a shorten illness time. Just what I have learned and passing on the info.


Sambucol is another product that is derived from elderberries.I ordered enough for my family.Could be BS,mabey not.

[Palerider]

Originally posted by danimal
~~~mortality rate will exceed 80%~~~it is POSSIBLE for it to become an air borne virus (this has happened in s e asia) this is when mortality rates will almost double

What rate above 80% would the revised "air borne" mortality rate be?
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2003-5/187818/death.gif

[bykerhd]

Mortality rate for the recent version in Asia seems to be under 50 %. As usual, it is mostly the old, very young and the weak that die. I wonder if survivors of earlier strains will be immune to the nastier, evolved versions ?

I seem to remember something on TV, History Channel maybe, about a town out in the boonies, Alaska ?, that withdrew itself from the outside world during the flu epidemics at the end of World War I. Guards at the town entrances, the whole bit. I think they all avoided the flu. Wouldn't mind seeing it again if anybody remembers what it was on and called. Seems like it might be relavent.
To this discussion anyway.
The only way I could get the wife to go would be if all her friggin' relatives went too. And, there are enough of them to populate the average good size town. Rather than live with them, I would probably take a chance on the outside.

[Snootleather]

Alaskan villages were decimated by the flu in 1918, they had no immunity. http://arcticcircle.uconn.edu/HistoryCulture/Sickness/sickness.html

[gunplumber]

certain (Italian) cities also quaranteed areas during the plague and had significantly decreased mortality rates.

I think is is essential to quarantee an area with a highly contagous biological, whether natural or manufactured. And anyone trying to leave the contaminated area should be shot.

The military has a constitutional duty to protect the nation AS A WHOLE against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

If you are trying to break a quarantee, guess what - you have just become a major threat to national security. If I were a soldier on the quarantee line, I'd shoot you down with no hesitation or regret. Whatever your motive, the effect is exactly the same as if you were mohammid akhbar running at the quarantine line with a vial of anthrax.

Yeah, it would suck being inside the quarantine area, but trying leave is just as irresponsible as folks with known hereditary diseases having kids.

[leek]

Here's a tin foil answer. If the disease was isolated to an area I would not put it pass those in charge to nuke the area and then blame it on whoever the enemy du jour is at the time. Of course with spectrum analysis one could tell the source of the nuke. But with marshall law in place , who would check?

I'm a health care professional , and I understand quarantines. With that said I would not hesitate to use lethal force on those who would keep me in. Assuming I got out , I would isolate my family and I until we knew we were clean. I have several escape routes out of the city which I believe I could escape with out notice and with out a fight.

Working in health care , I would easily be exposed. I would have to separate myself from my family. Alot of difficult decisions.:sad:

[FortunateSon]

"outbreak" (I think) with Dustin Hoffman as a USAMARID DR after an Ebola infected monkey escapes from a quarantine center in Maryland deals with the issues of military quarantine in a very realistic manner. Fairly decent movie even with the Dustin.

[danimal]

"Outbreak" did cover this topic but that was hollyweird, if you want a realistic answer to a .gov response read "The Hot Zone" its true and its scarey! Most people dont know that there has been an ebola outbreak here in the states. It only affected monkeys (better thank God for that one!). Even though it fell under civilian authority and CDC should have been the handler guess who did handle it? USAMRID! Thank God for that too! They are well equipped and move FAST!

The point of this thread was just to pose these questions. I would not fight my way out of a quarantine BUT if I saw what was happening and could get out of the area before it was completely quarantined (and like I said NO SYMPTOMS!)... then I would run. If I had symptoms then I would rather stay, who knows maybe I help some how in the quarantine area. I will be checking on a gas mask. According to the health websites in my post any mask that has a filter rating of 95, 99 or 100 will work. Other than the flu the only reason I would want a mask is for painting. I dont think we will see an NBC attack of any scale in this country, at least not at the current time and situation.

[gunplumber]

My secondary MOS was nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare. NBC is kindof the red-headed stepchild at most units. Folks, including command, don't want to deal with it, except once a year for annual qualification. Which left me pretty much free to invent my own self-training schedules (as more preferable to washing vehicles, painting rocks, and picking up cigarette butts).

So I did extensive research, which combined with my medical training (aeseptic technique) gave me a pretty good understanding - at least theoretical - in dealing with contamination.

Most chemical contamination is not contageous. That is, you have to really try hard to pass contamination from one person to another once the person has been evacuated from the area. You can get contaminated from handling contaminated clothing, equipment, etc, or airborne from contaminated dust particles (which can go through a MOPP Suit - joy!) but its realtively mundane compared to biological or radiological contamination.

Radiological, outside the blast area, also is relatively mundane - you have to inhale it, eat it, or otherwise get it into your body in relatively large doses (fallout). And prompt radiation (xrays, gamma waves) are a one-time bang then nothing.

biologicals, are another story. The problem is (and this kindof summarizes by post) is

ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS.

The problem with crossing a quarantine is you may be contaminated, and spreading the organism, without having symptoms yourself. And your self-assessment is pretty biased. Without a full blood workup, your "opinion" that you are clean is certaintly not going to fly to the men assigned to keeping you in.

Look at ll the people spreading AIDES or other STDs without knowing they have it. Or hepetitis. or even influenza. You could spread a biological to 100 people before ever becoming symptomatic yourself, or even without ever becoming symptomatic.

[Tristan]

Hey there, Danimal!

Here's some food for thought: If you've been exposed (and you may not even know you WERE exposed) the virus has a 4 - 8 day incubation period before onset of symptoms. So, if you bugged out of an area with Pandemic Flu, even without symptoms, you might be a vector (carrier) to another, clean area.

I know you suggest you would only head to an isolated area, but what about getting gas along the way, or topping off the food and water for the duration? You might be carrying and passing it along to every one you meet along the way.

Being in a quarantined area does not guarantee you'll get the virus. If I were in an area so quarantined, I would hunker down at home with my family and assure that we did not have any contact with others for the duration - and I'm prepared for just that eventuality. In fact, my greatest concern is that I would be *away* from home when the pandemic virus broke out, and I wouldn't be able to get back to my preps.

There are a couple potential vaccines for the virus, being tested now, but depending on when (IF) the virus jumps the species barrier (becomes H2H capable) we may not have enough, or if the virus has mutated, it may not be effective enough.

There are, however, several anti-virals that do provide some hope for dealing with the virus should you get sick; and it's likely that the stockpiles of those drugs will be heading to areas where the virus has broken out, for the very purpose of slowing the replication and transmission.

As far as the mortality rate being 80% or more, the current figures from the outbreak Jakarta, Indonesia indicate a rate of just above 50%, FOR IDENTIFIED CASES OF H5N1. The fact is, there may be reason to believe the mortality rate could be less, far less, if there are people who are getting the virus and not getting sick enough to go to the hospital, thereby skewing the numbers high. This mortality rate figure is for those who get the virus, which may or may not infect everyone in a particular area. Currently, we have no data on what the infection rate for a particular population is, as the virus is not transmitting H2H or doing so rarely. During the 1918 influenza pandemic, which is the closest model to the potential H5N1 pandemic, the mortality rate was less than that; I've seen figures between 2% and 18%. It may be possible that H5N1 has an 80% mortality rate, but the current evidence suggests that is unlikely. Don't get me wrong, 18% is plenty bad enough. For comparison, Ebola mortality has ranged from somewhere in the range of 70-90% (from memory, depending on the outbreak).

I can understand your concern about being in a quarantined area, and I share your concern. But IMO, for this particular threat, the best strategy might be putting your efforts into preparing your homesite for an extended stay without running to the store. I'm thinking that the important preps are: Water, Food, medicine, sanitary needs, comms, entertainment, and did I mention water and food? Food I can store, but I'm dependent on delivery of water from the local government - and in a really bad pandemic, perhaps enough utility workers will be out sick to disrupt the flow of water. That's one of my big worries.

Good luck!

-Tristan

[Plain George]

leek ...so you would kill someone to exit a quarantine zone so that you could go to a clean zone and contaminate those folks.
That is why a 'shoot to kill' quarantine must be imposed..
BTW don't show up in my AO

[leek]

Plain George---let me explain. I work in health care. I have dealt with two SARS cases first hand and HIV patients and their blood , urine , and vomit . I would fight my way out and use deadly force if had to. I doubt I would have to use force since I get around undetected all the time. I fly , boat , bike, drive , and hike. I own my own plane and boat. I would not be a vector to a clean area. My plan would be to quarantine myself and family which provides protection both ways. If I'm contaminated , I'll keep all away and use force if necessary. I deal with our government all the time and I believe most to be incompetent. I think the response to 911 and Katrina is quite telling. If my preperations hold up, I will not be a sheeple. As far as showing up in your AO--------you'll have no idea I 'm even there and I wouldn't go there if I knew anyone was there. BTW , my state had over 700 cases of West nile Virus with 62 deaths and yes two cases of SARS Which I dealt with in 2003. Bet you didn't hear about this. By the time the US government would react it would be too late. Even though Canada had strict quarantines in effect in Toronto--------guess where our two SARS cases came from? The two SARS cases were relocated from a large big city hospital to a smaller suburban satelite hospital . All staff that had contact with the subjects followed the patient to the smaller hospital to care for the patient and no others. Both recovered and it did not spread.

[olsarg]

1918 Flu prefered healthy young adults in good or better shape or so I've read some where. Not the young and old or weak. Is this true?

[Plain George]

leek..As far as showing up in your AO--------you'll have no idea I 'm even there"

Well after spending a good amount of time playing sneak n peek in the USMC Force Recon...I think I will know if you are any where near my AO, and you may be surprised who is on your 6.

[danimal]

Just reading over these posts and some of the responses. Im almost having second thoughts about beginning this thread. It was only intended to propose the question about quarantines and the effectiveness of a .gov response. Now there is all this talk of shooting anyone who tries to leave a quarantine or shooting someone in your "AO".

Then this thought hit me. We talk so much of being prepared, not being a sheeple. With the Katrina threads we talked of not "depending" on the government for a rescue but rather taking care of yourself and not waiting for a government program to rescue and feed your butt.

but if a virus hits...
Just sit tight and hold on cause uncle sam in his red, white and blue suit (no cape, but long tails on his overcoat) will come flying to save you with a shot and a pill and make the bad sickness go away.

Leek your last post convinced me, people have not learned from 911 or katrina.
I see a few here that understand my post, but they are few... sadly.

without a doubt quarantining works in infectious diseases... if the people are prepared! and we (the US) is not!

READ the book "The Hot Zone" it was a small animal lab in Reston, Virginia and Ebola ran rampant through it. 30+ monkeys died in a very short time and USAMRID came to the aid with plastic sheeting, duct tape and double-sided tape (Im not joking) they setup Sunbeam electric skillets and filled them with cyanide pellets and turned the entire building into a gas chamber. This was a precautionary measure because the disease had already ran its course, if it had been infectious to humans it would be doubtful that all of us would be here to read this thread.

They can handle small localized areas, not a city not even a small one.

[gunplumber]

I'm glad you started this thread, its opened my eyes to how stubborn some can be with their ignorance.

Then this thought hit me. We talk so much of being prepared, not being a sheeple. With the Katrina threads we talked of not "depending" on the government for a rescue but rather taking care of yourself and not waiting for a government program to rescue and feed your butt.

but if a virus hits...
Just sit tight and hold on cause uncle sam in his red, white and blue suit (no cape, but long tails on his overcoat) will come flying to save you with a shot and a pill and make the bad sickness go away.

Its not a matter of one waiting for uncle sam to save them. Its a matter of reckless stupidity causing the spread of a deadly pathogen to MILLIONS of other people.

Is it better to have 80% mortality in one town? Or 80% mortality in the entire country?

This is a purely theoretical question, but lets reverse the roles.

You are in a clean area. People from an infected area want to "pass through" your neighborhood. Are you going to let them?

Does the "freedom" of one american family that THINKS they are clean, outweigh the potential risk of killing off your entire neighborhood?

We are not talking about a common cold here. We are talking about the most deadly organisms known to man - either naturally occuring in the case of bird flue, or genetically altered for the sole purpose of killing as many people as possible.

Quarantines are not a game of capture the flag.

I

[Ronin556]

What cracks me up is the governments "containment" talk, and "securing" us against infected poultry when they can't even keep the flood gates on the Southern border closed for a matter of hours.

Anyone know where Mexico imports their poultry from?

Also, lots of new cases of vCJD springing up in Europe. That's one scary mofo there - about a 10 year incubation, then your dust in 8 months.

Interesting read fellas.

[Rawles]

RE:
>Mortality rate for the recent version in Asia seems to be under 50 %.

I don't think so!!! That 50% figure is based on advanced medical treatment. Because A. A. flu is a respiratory disease, that means therapies that won't be available at home are currently being used to combat the small outbreaks in Asia. (This includes inhalation therapy, anti-viral drugs like Cipro--already in critically short supply--and ventilators.) Here is a data point for you: There 105,000 ventilators installed at U.S. hospitals, of which at least 70,000 are in use on any given day. In the event of a pandemic, the hospitals will be jammed. Now who, of the 20 million to 200 million patients, is going to get the use of those 35,000 ventilators? And who is going to get any of the few available doses of cipro?

Think this through folks, and PREPARE! Try to get some Cipro, NOW. (Ask your friendly local doctor.) Since most flus are spread by person-to-person contact, be prepared to live in isolation for an extended period of time, preferably in a rural, agricultural, lightly populated region. That means a six month supply of storage food and all of the other requisite logistics. Also lay in a supply of antibiotics. Yes, they are useless against the flu itself (which is viral), but they can be used to fight co-infections

For details on the A.A. flu and related preparedness topics, read my blog. (www.SurvivalBlog.com)

[Enquiring Minds]

OK, alright, I owe danimal an apology... I was a tad harsh and sanctimonious given his INTENTIONS... doesn't happen often, my bad.

While THEORETICALLY the pro-quarantine by armed force position taken by GP and me has much merit, in REALITY danimal has some points:

a) Katrina et al shows FEDGOD/FEMA can't run a Chinese fire drill, let alone a health emergency...

b) With modern air travel, and an airborne disease with a 4-10 day incubation period, quarantine/isolation might not even be possible, except on a continental scale... time to teleconference... viruses can't travel on satt links.


Some peripheral points, worthy of separate threads:

c) In the absence of effective vaccine, would US troops allow themselves to be the "ring" around the "hot zone", or would they say "f**k this", frag their officers, and head for the brothel?

d) Would US forces shoot down UNarmed Americans?... OK, that's not really thread-worthy, we know they would.

[gunplumber]

d) Would US forces shoot down UNarmed Americans?... OK, that's not really thread-worthy, we know they would.

not as cut and dried a question as you might think.

An example - soldiers in Haiti assigned to confiscate firearms from the pro-democracy populace to support the commie pinko the FedGov installed gave ample warning on when they were coming through and advised that the popyulation have something to turn in. They got lots of guns - not much militarily significant. Its called "defect in place"

Would I, when I was wearing green, obey an obviously unconstitutional order and fire on americans who were not a significant threat? No way.

Would I shoot someone whose reckless actions were likely to kill thousands of people? Damn straight I would.

While the old army is slowly retiring and the MTV generation is taking over, soldiers are neither stupid, nor unpatriotic. It takes a lot of commitment to something - mom, the flag, and apple pie, to enlist. While there are some looking just for a nanny, IO think thats the minority.

And the more elite the unit, the more intelligent and dedicated to "the cause" however each individual may define it.

Looking at the war in iraq, what I see is too many soldiers getting hurt because they hesitate to shoot anyone who might not be a direct threat. I don't see that changing, in fact I see it as being MORE hesitation should the target be one we subconsiously see as a friendly.

Look at Tienamin square - even in a communist dictatorship, the gov had to draw troops from a different ethnic area before they could get them to shoot at the rioting demonstrators (yes, they were throwing molotov coctails, it was no more peacefull than many of the communist-agitated riots we had in the 60s.

And yes, If i were at kent state, and someone was throwing bricks at me, I would have no remorse in shooting them.

[danimal]

Thanks EM apology accepted and reciprocated, Ive been known to be a bit brash myself. :)

Thank you Mr. Rawles this is the nature of my thread! Who here is setup and prepared for 6 MONTHS or MORE of no contact?

d) Would US forces shoot down UNarmed Americans?... OK, that's not really thread-worthy, we know they would.

not as cut and dried a question as you might think.

IM NOT BASHING OUR MILITARY
but I do know personally some US marines that cant handle an intellectual question that goes above "Beavis and Butthead"
will "they" shoot first at Unarmed Civies? you bet!
they will call it "trigger time" and down a couple of cold ones and justify it by saying "We were told to... Officer SO-n-SO said it was ok"

[doktor_ecchs]

Originally posted by danimal
IM NOT BASHING OUR MILITARY
but I do know personally some US marines that cant handle an intellectual question that goes above "Beavis and Butthead"
will "they" shoot first at Unarmed Civies? you bet!
they will call it "trigger time" and down a couple of cold ones and justify it by saying "We were told to... Officer SO-n-SO said it was ok"

I'm afraid I have to agree with the above statement. Once the offending people were sufficiently "demonized" by the upper echelons, I think a great many would shoot civilians (provided with a "reason" of course.):uhoh:

as ever,
Dr. X :fal:

[gunplumber]

then why aren't they doing it in Iraq?

[doktor_ecchs]

To be truthful I've heard it both ways from over there...
To me it's a different situation in Iraq. Insurgents could be blending in with civilians. Judgement would have to be made extremely quickly. If I were there, I'd be giving ALL civilians the fishy eye, which is why I made the statement above...trying to see it from both sides as it were...

as ever,
Dr. X :fal:

[gunplumber]

seems to me, if US troops were gunning down any civilian who looked at them funny, the antiwar crowd would be running with it all over the headlines.

The fact that its not dailey news tells me that

1. we have totally awesome sensorship

2. Its not happening.

given that the radical left would LOVE to have it happen, I have to accept that its not.

and in a world of IEDs and suicide bombers, if the soldiers STILL go above and bayond to prevent casualties among non-combatants, I find it hard to believe the typical GI would throw out that kind of judgement when dealing with Joe Citizen on our own soil.

[FortunateSon]

Mark, how about when they show up at ARS to collect all your rifles and you say go to hell? What do you think their response would be?

[Treborer]

I think that measles kill more people than "West Nile" and "Bird Flu".

How about a health check of tourists and immigrants at thier point of departure.

No med check, no ticket to ride.

:wink:

This press overkill sounds like a Drug company wet dream-fix em with guns and pour in the artillery-prototype drugs.

The African model...
:D this too shall pass.

[g5]

This is getting into "what is a legal order?" territory. We just saw civilians being disarmed in New Orleans by civilians (Non military LEO's). It apparently took a federal judge to stop that. I hope we don't have to find out how it will all be handled but regional quarantines will certainly occur if the biological need is there.


And, just where did the feds foul up the Katrina mess? They were in there and directing efforts in 3-4 days. What do the critics expect? A friend of mine who went down there to help told me that he thought the federal effort was commendable considering the devastation. Maybe you all have better information , and I have no problem eating crow.

[URBAN ASSAULT]

I was reading up about avian flu quite awhile before the news media picked up the story and ran with it. What I read concerned me enough that we, as a family have been quietly stocking up, here and there, as we could afford it. We are not even close to the level I would like our preparations to be, but I am sure that we are better prepared than most of our neighbors.

The plan is to not run away to an unfamiliar area with every other panicked soul, but rather to fort up, hunker down and attempt to ride it out. I think we could last a good two months with no resupply, after that we would be treading water. If the balloon goes up, I am hoping that the basic infrastructure(water, power, natural gas) stays intact and operating. If that happens, we aren't budging from our home.

If the infrastructure does eventually go down, I have an alternate area that we can go that is pretty isolated. Essentially one rough logging road in and out. I think the key here is to admit that avian flu is a killer, but that keeping a calm head while others around you panic is the most important part of a workable survival plan. We are doing constructive things in small increments, just like we did for the Y2K threat. I am very glad that Y2K wasn't devastating, but we were prepared just in case.

Hopefully, avian flu will turn out to be just as harmless, but my gut instinct is that it will not. BTW, I got a smoking good deal tonight for six of those 'forever' flashlights, you know, the kind you shake for 30 seconds and you get a couple minutes of LED light? Anyway, I bought six of them off of eBay for 5 bucks apiece. The shipping was only $7.50 for the whole lot, which I thought was pretty good. These are the newer full-sized 7" lights that have lithium batteries built in so you have immediate light without shaking when you push the switch. I figured I would turn some of you folks onto a good deal, just in case the power goes off for awhile. Take care.

[Jez Cruzen]

Reports that I have read forecast a 1 in 3 chance that the coming pandemic will be a major one - like in 1918. That means that there is a 2 in 3 chance it will be minor - like the Hong Kong and Asian flus of several decades ago.

The time of the coming pandemic was forecast to occur between this December and next March. Usually, a pandemic comes in three waves at three to nine months apart with the second wave producing the most fatalities.

In 1918 there was a large segment in the age spread from 20 to 40 that suffered a disproportionant number of fatalities. Someone mentioned this in a earlier post.

Worst case scenerio - H5N1 results in a major pandemic. Estimates in some medical circles suggest and infection rate of 15% to 35% and a fatality rate of 25% of those infected.

Personally I certainly do not know. I have spend a lot of time lately searching for credible information. Since I work in the Emergency Management area, I am more than just a little interested in whats going on with this potentially disasterous enfluenza outbreak. I only hope that we find out somewhere down the road that we were worried over nothing. A little voice tells me otherwise.

[Tristan]

Rawles -

Thanks for your blog, I try to read it every day. Mucho good stuff.

Just a note, Cipro is an antibiotic, not indicated for use in influenza cases unless treating secondary infections. Tamiflu, Relenza, Amantidine and Zanamivir are the indicated medications for viral influenza. Not a doctor, just been reading a lot.

(source link: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/treatment/dosage.htm )

Lest anyone thinks from my previous post that I'm all for .gov imposing quarrantine, I'm not, not by a long shot. Even though there are 4 anti-viral meds which might work on H5N1, at least two virus cultures (one from Vietnam and one from China) have been found to have developed resistance to Tamiflu and Amantidine respectively. That being the case, as well as the generally short supply of meds and total lack of vaccine (currently), perhaps the very best thing that can be done is simply quarrantine yourselves. Don't give the bug a chance to infect your family, if possible. It worked for some families in the 1918 pandemic, and it will likely work again.

I'm not sure that NO is a good model for how a pandemic would play out, other than the very significant problem of most people not having enough food and water on hand to cope with even a very short outtage of supply - and it could get ugly enough in some circumstances that law and order would be challanged or even non-existent.

There are so many 'if's' in this equation that the best we can do is strategize and try to prepare ourselves and families to the greatest possible degree.

[gunplumber]

Mark, how about when they show up at ARS to collect all your rifles and you say go to hell? What do you think their response would be

If a squad of marines showed up at my door to collect guns, then they would, like the SF in Haiti, get guns.

Maybe not all of them . .. . .

People who say "they can pry it from my cold dead hand" will likely see just such an eventuality.

The time to fight is not when confronted with overwhelming force. SunTsu. Put your strength against his weakness..

If there came a time to fight a military occupation force, the method should be like that of red dawn (bomb in the food basket). or with IEDs like in iraq, or a honeypot slitting some horney marine's throat. I think the insurgents are doing an outstanding job in iraq. While it sucks to be on the receiving end, we can learn a lot from studying their cells and tactics.

[Ronin556]

If a squad of marines showed up at my door to collect guns, then they would, like the SF in Haiti, get guns.

Maybe not all of them . .. . .

People who say "they can pry it from my cold dead hand" will likely see just such an eventuality.

The time to fight is not when confronted with overwhelming force. SunTsu. Put your strength against his weakness..

Quite possibly the worst advice I've EVER heard. It's exactly that mindframe that will keep the confinscations in business. Overwhelming force?

How many SF Members do you think the military has?!
50 million private gun owners vs XXXX Federales?

The powers that be in revolutions count on citizens to be good little kids and turn their weapons in, and if you do, you DESERVE whatever punishment they hand out to you, whether it be the Russian Gulag, or the Nazi Concentration camp.

What the hell do you think the government would be "up to" if they decided to go door to door?
I've got a feeling it'd be a lot worse than just trying to drop the crime rate.

[gunplumber]

Originally posted by Ronin556


Quite possibly the worst advice I've EVER heard. It's exactly that mindframe that will keep the confinscations in business. Overwhelming force?

How many SF Members do you think the military has?!
50 million private gun owners vs XXXX Federales?

The powers that be in revolutions count on citizens to be good little kids and turn their weapons in, and if you do, you DESERVE whatever punishment they hand out to you, whether it be the Russian Gulag, or the Nazi Concentration camp.

What the hell do you think the government would be "up to" if they decided to go door to door?
I've got a feeling it'd be a lot worse than just trying to drop the crime rate.

Marine Squad Leader. "We are here to confiscate your guns"

Ronin. "You can have my gun when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers"

Marine Squad Leader. "Corporal Jones?!"

[ "BANG" Ronin falls dead]

Corporal Jones. "Seargeant - do I really have to wait until he's cold?"

---------------

The problem with your fantasies of resistance are that they require an entire region to go into resistance mode simultaneously. I simply don't think its going to happen. Individual resistance without local area support just isn't going to succeed. Of course, I've only been studying pro and counterinsurgency for 20 years and maybe you have an example I am unaware of . . ..

The role of an insurgent is as a professional coward. NEVER stand and fight. Always run away. Only attack weak or defenseless targets. Time is your friend. You never have to win - only "not lose" and going one on one with a Marine Rifle squad is a sure way to lose.

[Ronin556]

Gunplumber - you're being naive.

Try this - LEAVE when they start confinscating.
Fight back when you can. Run when you can't.

Any Marine, soldier, sailor or Airman who would confinscate weapons has become a TRAITOR to the oath of enlistment he swore.

What you're advocating is NOTHING more than cowardice shown to an invading military.

Would you react the same if it was the Chinese army?
Their presence would be just as illegitimate.

So you know, gunplumber, there are things in this life worse than death.
Having no voice to speak, and no means of defending ones ideals is one of them.

Quite frankly, I'm ASHAMED to hear another American talk like that.

PS - even your signature reeks of the conventional "baaaah"
"The role of an insurgent is as a professional coward. NEVER stand and fight. Always run away. Only attack weak or defenseless targets. Time is your friend. You never have to win - only "not lose" and going one on one with a Marine Rifle squad is a sure way to lose."

You've basically just insulted our forefathers who had to steal liberty away from the British oppressors in exactly that manner.
To be right, and cowardly is better than to be wrong, and tyrannical.

[bykerhd]

Unless you can turn your dwelling into an impregnable bunker, not possible, gunplumber's assessment of what will happen if you defy an order to surrender your weapons sounds pretty accurate. Is it right ? Hell no ! But, there is no way that you could realistically resist overwhelming military force directed at you as an individual. Unless you can hide and hide your weapons succeessfully, your best bet is cooperate, turn the stuff over, and then start operating under the radar. gunplumber listed a few things that could hypothetically be done in such a scenario and there are many more. Replace your weapons ? Take them from individual soldiers or LEOs working with them by ambushing, mugging, waylaying, tricking or whatever means . Need food or other supplies ? Steal them. All hypothetical, of course. But, if the government chooses to change the rules of the game, then the individual may decide to choose which rules now apply to them At their own risk.

[gunplumber]

I'm sorry if my dose of reality diminishes your fantasies.

I agree with you that any American Soldier confiscating arms from the citizenry is an enemy and a traitor. But the politcs and ethics of the situation are irrelevant to the physical realities.

The realities are that a dead partisan is of little use to the resistance.


The question was Mark, how about when they show up at ARS to collect all your rifles and you say go to hell? What do you think their response would be?

I think their response would be to either shoot me dead or otherwise incapacitate me and take the guns by force.

A partisan in a concentration camp (relocation facility?) is of little use to the resistance.

Ergo, I would prima facie comply with all instructions, smile, and offer the nice soldier's a cup of coffee. I'd show them where all my antique and C&R guns were and help them pack them up.

And make note of their names and inquire about their families and otherwise make myself pleasant.

(knowing the names and locations of their family members may come in handy . .. )

To do otherwise is foolhardy. You must keep the strategic goals in mind.

When an american negotiator at the Paris accords mentioned to an NVA General that his forces had never defeated an American force in open battle, the NVA general replied words to the effect "this is true, and also irrelevant. . ."

[Ronin556]

So instead of inflicting as much damage at the onset as possible, you're suggesting that people WAIT until it takes root?!

Why do you guys buy guns at all in that matter?

I'm just going to shut up before some trigger happy mod bans me, and stick to lurking.

But this is without a doubt that most pathetic excuse for inaction I've ever seen.
Trust me, as a serviceman, I have NO illusions about what a citizen would be up against if they were to take on a military.
However, turning and whimpering is just going to give the enemy what they want.

Again I ask, what the hell do you think is in store for you once you surrender your weapons?

A long happy life with plenty of "freedom"?
Pffff. Wake up.

[URBAN ASSAULT]

Ronin, you need to back the hell off of Mark with your surly, arrogant posts. For your information sonny, Mark is one of the good guys. Even if you don't agree with his viewpoint, show just a tad more damn respect when you speak to someone you don't know. Not a good way to begin your posting career here on the board, I'd say. I'll also lay even money that you wouldn't speak that way to his face, or anyone elses face here in person. You take care now.

[sandsleep]

I have to agree with mark on this one. To openly resist them would be foolish. Better to be helpfull and friendly so that one can fight another day. Besides it's not like mark would give them all his guns, just most of them save the one or two (or more) he has stashed in his back yard. (but I doubt he would put them in his back yard too...) But i'm sure the only reason he would not give them those is because he "forgot" about them. Beside's i'm sure he would not want to have to bother the troops with all the work to dig them up....

[gunplumber]

However, turning and whimpering is just going to give the enemy what they want.

Discretion is the better part of valor. There is no tactical advantage to allowing the enemy to choose the time and place of a confrontation. I have a much better chance of influenciing the ultimate outcome by murdering all of the soldiers family members while they sleep. And their little dog toto too.

[Plain George]

It would depend on WHY they had come to take my guns.
If it were to confiscate ALL guns from EVERYBODY in the USA, then I would put up a fight to the death. Yes, they will overwhelm me, but with any luck I will get two or three. If every AMERICAN did the same, they would run out of gun grabbers before Americans ran out of guns.

[bykerhd]

Most of the posts about what happens if there is a pandemic and you end up in a quarantine area fall in to two categories. Bunker up, or Bug Out. gunplumber addressed his posts more to the Bunker Up idea. An individual may be able to fight off individuals and even groups of bad guys from the home fortress. If the military shows up in the dooryard of your home fortress, you had better not make the mistake of assuming you can fight them off also. You and yours will likely Die in Place. The Bug Out idea assumes you will be physically capable of surviving on the run and evading forces positioned to contain you. Certainly possible in some terrains and seasons for some individuals. If they are not sick. Everybody seems to think they have a plan, or by the time it's needed that they will have a plan. Realistically, most plans will fall apart the second things go bad. But, you have to try. But first you need to be alive and with some degree of freedom of movement.

[olsarg]

The so called unlawful order in the military that everyone is trained about don't matter If you don't follow the order you get charged with some thing else that falls in line with refusing to perform as directed. When the leader says go get the guns you go get the guns. Mine is not to reason why mine is but to do or die. heard that some where. If you run the quarintine better remeber that the area you go to is going to consider you a carrier and they will be hunting and watching for you more than the people in the quarintine area you were in. So unless you can run and hide and stay hidden the running is mot.

[gunplumber]

Mine is not to reason why mine is but to do or die. heard that some where.

Paraphrasing Tennyson's poem "Charge of the Light Brigade"

Of note is the results. Slaughtered as the russian guns tore them to pieces.

Redone in Iron Maiden's "Trooper"


Get so near - near enough to fight
when the russian gets me in his sights
he pulls the trigger and I feel the blow
a burst of rounds takes my horse below
...

one of their better ballads.

[Jez Cruzen]

I'm so glad that I no longer have any guns since becoming a pacifist.

"Welcome, troopers, to my humble abode. Come on in. Can I get you anything - anything at all? For heaven's sake, we're glad to see you. You make us feel much safer, now!"

[FortunateSon]

" At ease, Major. So, what kind of RESPONSE can we expect from Arizona Response Systems? Analysis and conclusions, quickly. " "Colonel, through public sourced information, data mining, and electronic surveilance, we believe he will try and placate us by offering us full access and allowing us to take weapons and equipment. Due to Mr Graham's near cult like following, his military and technical experience, and his equipment on site we would like to have him classified as a Tier 1 target. My recommendation is to initiate complete surveillance of Mr Graham and his family and known associates. Let's give him a little slack and see what we might dredge up. After a short period of time conduct a full satellite radar search to 30 feet below surface for a minimum of 20 square miles, then bring them in. It is our feeling that a huge blow to the subversive element in the surrounding area will result by these actions." "So be it, Major. Just who do these "PATRIOTS" think they are, anyway. Defying direct orders from their Constitutionally elected leaders to surrender all firearms at once. For the good of our nation, and the World Union. A REAL patriot would follow orders initiated from their legal chain of command. He deserves what he has coming... Dismissed."

[.308 for life]

Mark
I had no idea you are a Maiden fan.:bow: Can you build me a fal with a airbrushed EDDY on the side
:wink:

(had to lighten it up a bit)

[gunplumber]

Well fortunate son, you are on the right track. Too bad with all the mine-shafts in my area there is going to be a whole bunch of interesting things for ground-penetrating radar to show . . .

But then, I don't need a gun. After all, the FedGov troops brought me a whole bunch - I just need to pick which one I want . . .

Like the Russians in Chechnya brought antitank rockets capable of defeating their own armor.

The rebels had none - that is, until the Russians brought them in . .. .

and yeah, I'd probably be removed from the equation early on. Uncle Sam didn't spend all that time training me in guerilla warfare to have it used against them . . ..




---------

Iron Maiden - I think the greatest metal band of the 80s. At least until that lame 7th Son album. . . .

Lyrics that had some thought to them instead of mindless wailing.

Their remake of Cooleridg'e Ancient Mariner is my favorite.

[cycle_rcr]

Mark,

A very interesting choice of terms:

"I have a much better chance of influenciing the ultimate outcome by murdering all of the soldiers family members while they sleep"

I will venture, they are not picked facetiously.

[gunplumber]

Originally posted by cycle_rcr
Mark,

A very interesting choice of terms:

"I have a much better chance of influenciing the ultimate outcome by murdering all of the soldiers family members while they sleep"

I will venture, they are not picked facetiously.

No. Deliberate choice of words. I orignally wrote "execute" but that is term better used for combatants. And "kill" is far too generic.

The Soviet Union used threats of reprisals against their military's family to guarantee loyalty. Brutal, but effective.

While I'd gain no pleasure in it, ruthless means may be necessary.

We can talk all day about whether resorting to unscrupulous means is justified, but I think the bottom line is you simply cannot fight "fair" against an opressor that has you totally outgunned with superior 3CI.

But will Private Joe schmedly wand to round up more Americans if he thinks his family may get "rounded up" as well?

War is brutal. Insurgency is even more so.

You defeat a superior force by undermining their will to fight. PsyOps 101.

We talked about how emergency workers were unwilling to show up to work after Katrina until they had seen to the welfare of their families. How motivated will they be to fight if they know their "soft target" families are in jeoprody?

[sandsleep]

Soooo.....What is the best way to protect agenst infection. And to hold up in an area that everyone else is infected but you may not be yet?

[Ronin556]

War is brutal. Insurgency is even more so.

LMFAO! dude - I understand you paid into the "big wig's club" around here, but you're flippin' and floppin' like a fish out of water.

Your quote basically calling insurgents cowards, and NOW all of a sudden, you're talking about MURDERING people in their sleep. (EDIT: Most respectful of apologies, I see now that wasn't your signature)

One of the good guys, eh Urban Assault?
And your goddamned wrong - I'd tell this to the face of the President if he asked me.

Look - I am NOT trolling. I'm trying to make a point, that your rights to firearms are NOT so you can hunt deer. It's for precisely the moment that ANY government tells American citizens they can neither speak for, nor defend themselves.

Speaking loosely, your earlier contention was that people will lack the will to fight (All but those who are living in a "fantasy":rolleyes: ), and then you retort with something to the tune of:
"Turn in your guns, and REALLY put the hurtin' on them, their sleeping wives and kids, and pets!"

You think people who are armed and equipped to resist but lack the willpower to do so are going to suddenly become stealth assassins once they turn in their guns?!

Psyops 101, eh?

A quarantine makes sense. You're an asshole if you try and break through it.
Giving up your guns in the process is an ENTIRELY seperate issue. The government has NO right to do that, nor do the police, or looters who might want to pay YOUR sleeping wife a visit.

Just think a little man, that's all I'm asking.

[gunplumber]

obviously, ronin, you are incapable of following more than one thought at a time.

There are two threads developing from this . The first is quartantines

The second is house to house weapon confiscation.

The second can be tied into the first (ala katrina) or as a seperate issue (general confiscation).

It is the latter general confiscation, as part of a larger supression of a populace, that my "kill their families" comments were related to.

So wipe the spit off your keyboard, take a deep breath, and READ before you respond. Then maybe you won't look so silly.

"Coward" is a term I chose carefully. Actually I said "professional Coward" which would have made a thinking man think. Apparently it was too subtle for you. I thought you needed a GED to get into the military . . . . .

Anyway, the denotation of Coward is one who lacks the courage to do dangerous or difficult things. But the connotation with regard to insurgency is one who refuses to fight by the rules of the occupying force. Ergo, the insurgents in iraq are "cowards" because they choose not to engage in a stand-up knuckle-to-knuckle fight with the US troops. In fact, that would be rather foolish of them. They are killing far more americans and demoralizing our country and our "will to fight" by their "cowardly" bombings and snipings and selected ambushes.

You must learn the difference between a "will to fight" and the wisdom of knowing when a fight is adventageous and when it is suicide.

George washington wasn't a particularly brilliant tactician, but he was a good strategist. He knew that time was on his side and he did everything he could to avoid battle until he had the advantage of surprise, terrain, and manpower. Look up "force multiplier" and "economy of force" in your GI Joe dictionary.

Washington Kept his army alive until he could engage in a decisive battle at Yorktown.

Winning a battle, but loosing so much of your force that you cannot fight again is not a strategic victory.

[Ronin556]

Gunplumber,

In your haste to insult me, you've really given me too little credit.

I FULLY understand where you're comming from here, and I think where you're insulted is I'm not kissing your ass telling you how great your ideas are.

What I am saying is no matter what the situation, inaliable rights are just that - your forever, with no intervention.

To willingly submit to any force is a critical political and sociological juncture.

It shows that beyond a doubt, the American population went from a strong, WWII Era population that strongly believed in their countries Bill of Rights, Constitution, and American Republican Democracy, to a whimpering "weasel" mentality socialist society, that would rather live, sacrificing their principles and stab a person in the back, whether metaphorically or literally.

If that's the message you're trying to send, then fire away with your petty insults. I'd not take the words of such a man seriously.

If you're intentions are more noble, perhaps you should consider for a second that at the present time, you have the luxurious advantage of being able to equip, take advantage of training, and assemble with others of like mind.

If you'd rather sacrifice that so you can call names on the internet, well... you're certainly free to do so.
As of yet, you're still afforded that freedom.

As a parting shot - I'm NOT spitting on my keyboard in rage. I couldn't care one way or another what some feller in Arizona thinks. I'm simply providing an objective perspective with which I HOPE some of you out there can nod your head in agreement with.

PS - I'm a 1-Charlie-4 awaiting Pipeline for the USAF, not a GI - though I do have a keen understanding of Economy of Force, Force Multiplication and general strategic warfare.

Thank you for the condescention.:cool:

[bykerhd]

I don't think gunplumber and you are all that far apart Ronin556. He doesn't want or plan to give up his weaponry either. The good stuff anyway. The point he is making is that if the "Fickle Finger of Fate" lands the military at your house and you refuse to surrender your guns, you will likely die. So, you only keep part of your weapons where they can be found, turn them over if required, cooperate, seemingly anyway, gather information and then become a part of, or THE, if necessary, New Insurgency, Second Revolution or whatever. "Getting" a couple of them before they destroy you and yours is, of course, an option. I'm sure your significant other and kids will appreciate why they have to die. As you see it anyway. Or, can they run and duck very, very, very fast ? Even if sick ? Some urban areas lend themselves quite well to guerrilla warfare, but the average U.S. suburban subdivision probably would not. Unless, you are able to band together with a bunch of friends and neighbors. Then you might hold out for a very short time. Probably not a good idea having a get-together during an epidemic anyway. Survive and fight another day and maybe in another way. The martyrs will get buried anonymously with the flu victims.

[gunplumber]

LMFAO! dude - I understand you paid into the "big wig's club" around here, but you're flippin' and floppin' like a fish out of water . . . .In your haste to insult me, you've really given me too little credit.


It is your own writing, not mine, that shows your credibility, grasshopper.


You are welcome to your glorious stand against the evil oppressors. Your death will be noble and virtuous I am sure. Also useless and quickly forgotten, but don't let that little detail curtail your plans.

I think I can influence the outcome of events better alive, than dead, but you try your way, and I'll try mine . .. . .


P.S.: What does my contributions as a founding member of the Fal Files have to do with my thoughts on insurgency and unconventional warfare? The "big wig club," (if there is such a thing) requires a long history of posts that establish oneself as a logical and rational thinker. Unfortunately, you are not off to a very good start . .. ..

[Ronin556]

You are welcome to your glorious stand against the evil oppressors. Your death will be noble and virtuous I am sure. Also useless and quickly forgotten, but don't let that little detail curtail your plans.

I'm going to make this one really simple, in hopes that there is nothing for you to poke fun at.

SO YOU KNOW - I understand that there are right wing para-militants out there that fantasize about glorious showdowns with the "JBT's".
I AM NOT ONE OF THEM. Stop talking to me as If I were.

So now, for a formula:

Freedom of assembly + Independant arms ownership = Liberty

There is no need for a "glorious showdown" if the Government understands and fears the citizenry. If the citzenry is cowardly and allows the government to trample their rights, what do you have?

DESPOTISM.

Why not prevent it by action now, rather than submit then? Besides, as I already stated, there are plenty of ways to escape if they do decide they want to infringe on the constitution. Shall we get into that?

[danimal]

WOW this thread has grown!
I must say that for the areas where GP and I disagree...
we do agree on one thing, if it came to that, it is far better to give up the guns that uncle sam knows that you have. Then live and fight as an insurgent. Small unit tactics... hit and run.
Study the american indians this is exactly how they fought (out manned and out gunned) and its exactly how small units fight today. If you depend on your neighbors to come running and to fire against a force standing on your doorstep Im afraid you will die staring out the window waiting. It would be better to regroup and gather forces (men and women you can depend on) to hit the soft targets. As eluded to in GP's post the man who stands and dies in a second will be a hero and a martyr... for a few moments, but it will be the one who lives and regains his country and freedom that truly wins the fight.

[Ronin556]

Study the american indians this is exactly how they fought (out manned and out gunned) and its exactly how small units fight today. If you depend on your neighbors to come running and to fire against a force standing on your doorstep Im afraid you will die staring out the window waiting. It would be better to regroup and gather forces (men and women you can depend on) to hit the soft targets. As eluded to in GP's post the man who stands and dies in a second will be a hero and a martyr... for a few moments, but it will be the one who lives and regains his country and freedom that truly wins the fight

Words of wisdom. On that note, if you're interested in a good read regarding just that, pick up "The first hundred years of Nino Cochise", by A Kinney Griffith.

It's an OUTSTANDING perspective on the Apache way of life, warfare and culture.

The insurgent has the advantage of fluidity. In a more specific topic, we could have an interesting conversation on this.

[762 shooter]

Ronin556, Marks thoughts are cogent and logical. I have yet to see a "flip flop" or any contradictions. Choose your battles.
Avian flu will only be a significant threat if it mutates from an avian virus to a human virus. It is severely limited in its current form. It can infect humans but it is still an avian virus. What the chances are of it mutating are pure speculation. If it does...
I have been planning for the WCS (Worst Case Scenario) for the last year. I will make sure I quarantine my family in a safe place myself before I allow the Gov't to do it. On the brighter side, viruses with a high mortality rate in a short period of time tend to be self limiting.:smile:

[FortunateSon]

Bird flu in Romania - http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/10/07/051007193345.xn00dt5o.html

[Plain George]

Study the way the indians fought? Hell over all they LOST.
Tried to appease the whiteman at first., till it was too late

[TXscout]

Originally posted by Rawles
RE:
>anti-viral drugs like Cipro....already in critically short supply....Also lay in a supply of antibiotics. Yes, they are useless against the flu itself (which is viral), but they can be used to fight co-infections

For details on the A.A. flu and related preparedness topics, read my blog. (www.SurvivalBlog.com)

You need to get your facts straight before you "prescribe" things for your readers---Cipro is a broad spectrum antibiotic (read: anti bacterial). It is NOT an antiviral. Don't take antibiotics prophylactically if you are not sick, especially in a SHTF/epidemic situation---Especially one that is viral in nature. They will kill the normal flora and fauna in your system, and make you more susceptible to primary, and/or secondary infections, either bacterial or viral.

Let's be responsible folks........

[FortunateSon]

October 8, 2005
Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
By GARDINER HARRIS
WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says that a large outbreak that began in Asia was likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed; riots would engulf vaccination clinics; and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents that would justify quarantines. Written by health officials, the plan does yet address responses by the military or other governmental departments.

The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within six months, more than 10 times the present capacity.

On Friday, President Bush asked the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough. Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this.

But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department may react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, like how the military may be deployed.

"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."

Still, the official, who asked for anonymity because the plan is not supposed to be distributed, called the plan a "major milestone" that was "very comprehensive" and sorely needed.

The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.

Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a governmentwide plan, and that process has already begun."

Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times was a draft and had not been finalized.

Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing Friday that the administration's flu plan would be officially released soon. He was not aware at the briefing that The Times had a copy of the plan. And he emphasized that the chances that the virus now killing birds in Asia would become a human pandemic were unknown but probably low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.

"It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.

And he said that flu planning would soon become a national exercise.

"It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."

"Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready?' If not, here is what must be done," he said.

A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage distribution for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, national guard and other national security groups were left out.

Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, the police, firefighters and government leaders are next.

The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. Presently the administration has bought 4.3 million.

The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the Department of Defense.

Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television move-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic situation that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."

"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.

The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. "Social unrest occurs," the plan states.

Lawrence K. Altman contributed reporting for this article. link - http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/08/politics/08flu.html?ei=5094&en=891e4ed91f26781c&hp=&ex=1128744000&adxnnl=1&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1128744372-SQGfMufPbgaF6vwOJvN8sw

[AGC]

Originally posted by Ronin556

PS - I'm a 1-Charlie-4 awaiting Pipeline for the USAF




I'm not fluent in "Air Force," but am I correct in reading this as "I'm don't actually have the AFSC/MOS. I'm still waiting to start training and hoping that I'll make it"?

[AGC]

Originally posted by Plain George
Study the way the indians fought? Hell over all they LOST.
Tried to appease the whiteman at first., till it was too late


That's actually the best reason to study them: _why_ they lost.

Two big reasons come to mind immediately: logistics and communications/coordination.

From the time of the first European settlements, the Natives had a tremendous technology deficit. They never were able to overcome this. All through the "Indian Wars" in the 18th and 19th century US, the fighting between the Mexican government and the Yacquis in the early 20th century, up to AIM at Wounded Knee in 1973 and the Zapatistas in Mexico in the last few years, there was an almost complete dependence on externally acquired arms and ammunition.

And usually not acquired in any methodical fashion.

In that, they've had a lot in common with other insurgencies. If you don't have an external "Sugar Daddy" (like the Soviet Union during the Viet Nam war) there's not a lot of reason to be optimistic. The "I don't need to have weapons or ammunition because I'll capture those from the enemy" folks are deluding themselves in this regard. There may be opportunities to buy, steal or capture weapons, but they can't be depended upon.

And lack of communication and coordination was an even greater problem. A big part of that was cultural in the Natives' case. They weren't a single "nation," but hundreds of tribes, often speaking vastly different languages and fighting for no single coordinated goal. But it was also technological: no written means of communication, nor any technology that would allow long-range secure communications. Facing an army that used a single language and could communicate by written messages, telegraph and heliograph over long ranges, they were at a great disadvantage.

Some of the best war leaders understood at least part of this, and targeted communications. But that wasn't enough, especially when they lacked any communications system of their own.

The Natives in North America were probably doomed to defeat at least as early as King Philip's War (1675). They failed to prevent the establishment of a beachhead that would allow the continued influx of colonists, arms and munitions. Everything afterwards was only delaying the inevitable.

[gunplumber]

The Natives in North America were probably doomed to defeat at least as early as King Philip's War (1675). They failed to prevent the establishment of a beachhead that would allow the continued influx of colonists, arms and munitions. Everything afterwards was only delaying the inevitable.

Good study - King Phillip's War, and also the War of Jenkin's Ear. First examples of unconventional warfare in the Colonies. Wrote a paper way back when tracing the American Rangers from 1675 through 1865 and the evolution of unconventiuonal warfare tactics.

In those days, men were MEN! (of course there was little alternative offered . . . "

[g5]

Mark, that would be an interesting paper if you still have it.

[MTS]

On the whole topic of resisting occupation/oppression, most of you have probably seen "Total Resistance".

Written by a Swiss military officer to deal with how civilians can do damage without direct confrontation, I think it would work for Americans if things went bad.

I think bowing up on police or military troops on your front steps is not a good thing. At very least it guarantees a destructive search and the loss of anything you were holding back for later use.

[gunplumber]

Originally posted by g5
Mark, that would be an interesting paper if you still have it.

I have it on paper - somehow the disc got corrupted. but I do have a number of other papers from JFK Special Warfare Center and School such as "Principles of Resistance" and "Unconventional Warfare Checklist" if you e-mail me direct - they are Word Docs.

One of the days I will scan all my old term papers and try to OCR them back to computer files.

[Treborer]

Alls well really.

If there is an epidemic, ya keeps the people quarantined. Makes sense.

Better to not let them emmigrate to your country, but we can't do that, so we stand ready to throw up a Rope Corral on our own.

Talk about market control?

This new captive market buys -with tax money- the drugs. Everyones needs are met-Drug Lobby, (Rumsfelds former employers), Sick citisens, (they feel better, or die from side effects).

When a nation has constipated it's economic activity through excessive regulation, its leaders are forced to create new markets in unregulated territories.

Regulate and Spend in the margins of the Code of Federal Regulations not previously exploited!

War on Germs!!

The Enemy within!!

A different kind of CFR-for you Birchers-...

The enemy, how much more within can an enemy be, than nasty germs in your body.

Doctors kill, by accident 1.5 million people a year, thats for the birds..flew past you? check it out.

Theres' no business like show business!!

:biggrin: :beer:

Actually I like Bush!:eek:

[Jez Cruzen]

Avian Flu - I watched as a medical doctor on Fox News stated today "Don't worry about it" in refering to any predicted pandemic relating to the avian flu viris. That may not be a direct quote, but that's what he meant - don't worry about a pandemic! His position was that there has been and currently is so much bad sh#t already going on that people have enough to worry about without anything added to it. After all, 2005 really has been a crappy year - sunomy, war(s), hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, terrorism, fuel shortages and high prices, and now...the threat of pestilance.

You got'a admit, 'ol UBL must certainly be sitting in a hole in the ground somewhere saying "See, my children, Allah is a just god. He has smitten our enemies for us. His mighty winds leveled and smote the Great Satan, and his mightly hand shook the earth to destroy the pretenders in Pakistan. God is great!!" You know thats what they are saying!

With regards to all the marshal law posts and the "What I'm going to do" stuff, I think that the survival of both you and your families, and enjoining an armed conflict against federal troops in order to protect the Constitution, are mutually exclusive. I don't think that someone can overtly engage in armed struggle AND survive, too. At least I don't think that someone could successfully accomplish both, but then I'm not a military expert. I'm mostly just a dumb-asses country boy, but, then...a country boy can survive!:smile:

[Rick]

One question that is in the back of my mind on gun confiscation (Katrina)- let's say the solidiers role up and ask "any weapons"? I reply "gosh no, i wouldn't have a gun in the house"? What are they going to do, a detailed search of the premises? I don't think they'd have time to thoroughly search every house.

Are people saying "well yes i do have a few rifles and some ammo. let me hand them over to you so you get on with your illegal confiscation"?

[gunplumber]

Originally posted by Rick
Are people saying "well yes i do have a few rifles and some ammo. let me hand them over to you so you get on with your illegal confiscation"?

I interpretted the question as a squad of marines shows up on my doorstep saying they are here to confiscate the guns I am known to have. Peacefully or by force.

Choices are to submit or Resist and DIP (Die in Place). Is there another choice? Will a debate with Sgt Smith on the constitutionality of his decision and the consequences of following an illegal order be of value?

[torquemada055]

If you get a chance I would love to have a copy of your papers.

I love to learn all I can about many subjects.:biggrin:

[Plain George]

Originally posted by gunplumber


Choices are to submit or Resist and DIP (Die in Place). Is there another choice? Will a debate with Sgt Smith on the constitutionality of his decision and the consequences of following an illegal order be of value?

My health and age are such that at that point my only choice is to take as many as possible with me and DIP (die in peace)

[bykerhd]

posted by Rick :

"One question that is in the back of my mind on gun confiscation (Katrina)- let's say the solidiers role up and ask "any weapons"? I reply "gosh no, i wouldn't have a gun in the house"? What are they going to do, a detailed search of the premises? I don't think they'd have time to thoroughly search every house. "

If troops roll up to illegally confiscate your weapons by any means, what makes you think an illegal search is going to be a problem for them ? And they may decide to search each home. Especially the homes of those who have purchased firearms legally in the past, or who belong to groups like the NRA or subsribe to firearms publications or belong to sportsman's organizations like maybe Ducks Unlimited. In New Orleans it seems the police actually were fairly polite. At least until you gave an answer they didn't like anyway. In a federal quarantine zone under martial law, I think you will find your Constitutional Rights are "temporarily" suspended. Or, superceded by military orders for the duration of the emergency. But, I'm no lawyer or expert on martial law

[AGC]

It's always amusing, the tin-foil-helmet brigade and their "troops searching for guns" fears...

Especially when they're talking about natural disasters, epidemics or nuclear war...

If things are that grim, where on earth are all these gun-confiscating cops and soldiers going to be coming from?

I'm reminded of the black-helicopter folk's ravings before y2k about "roadblocks to keep people from leaving the cities" and "martial law" and all the rest... All the more so as I was assigned to one of the military police units that they were sure was preparing to start "rounding up the patriots and sending them to detention camps," and we were lucky if we could get most of the bodies assigned to us to just show up for drills...

With the military hurting for numbers, both active and reserve, and a large chunk of the forces overseas for the foreseeable future, I'd really like to know where all these jackbooted thug troops are going to be found?

[steve marshall]

There is a certain taint of pedantic frippery here in these posts. However most of us would resist in some fashion I'm sure. It might be from mild to wild. If the government WAS running around confiscating firearms, the thinking man would debate fight or flight. In this case fight may be temporarily allowing some form of confiscation to actually do harm later. There would have to be some forewarning. How would it be possible for a limited resource to target all of us first? I don't buy into the idea that there would be wholesale confiscation in the first place. But let's assume the attempt would be made. How many would be at home to welcome them and offer a beverage while they ransacked the place? By then, most who would actually resist would be gone and/or the items scheduled for confiscation. It is Mittyish to plan on armed resistance at the outset but no more than conversing with jbt's about their families' itinerary.

[Enquiring Minds]

Die in place? Why not trigger the claymores? Or better yet, an RPG into their vehicle before they dismount. Both are available on the gray market. No sense letting a bunch of weenies at ATF tell you what you can and can't have when TSHTF fer real. You can hide a lot of ordnance in a bale of mari-hoochie. Do you know how many bales of marij come in every month?

The good boy scout would also be stealing/stockpiling arty shells, and other sources of fused HE. Add in a cellphone and a car battery, and you've got an Iraqi Special.

If they have to call in air support, you're an instant legend. Your likeness will be carved into mountainsides.

[Plain George]

At my former residence in a different town, I was so well known by the Chief of Police and Fire Dept that I always wanted to find some Natl Guard guy with a tank on a flat bed and pay him $100 to go to the Police station and ask for my address and announce he had a tank to deliver.....never had the chance to do it, but sure wished I could have.:biggrin:

[bykerhd]

I like the idea Plain George. Too bad you would need to pony up $ 300 + now for fuel, etc. to accomplish the same thing.
An M1 tank came loose or slid off it's transport rig on the Interstate highway a mile or so from my house. Winter time and I never heard any details. I don't think anyone got hurt. First I knew it was there was when I came on the scene of the mishap a little later. You could see where the embankment was all chewed up. What really made the impression was the M1 setting there with the cannon facing towards oncoming traffic. I bet a few cups of coffee got spilled that morning.

[gunplumber]

I went down to the feed store the other day and there was a trailer just sitting there on the side of the parking lot with 3 turtletop military hummers with ring mounts. No tractor. My buddy is a trucking contractor and has a tractor or two sitting in his driveway . . ..

I did think about it for a few minutes . . .. hehehehehe.

[sandsleep]

Tempting.:devil:

[macvsog]

Gunplumber,

Have you ever had a chance to read "Insurgent War, Selected Case Studies" put out by the U. S. Army Command and General Staff College?

Also, did you receive my e-mail to you yesterday?

The above book along with "Ragged War" By Leroy Thompson are must reads.:)

[idfalfan]

In the Seventeenth Century, when the Indians started battling with the first Colonial settlers, they had the upper hand.

Indian guerrilla style ambushes and eventual deployment of aimed musket fire from behind trees often ended up in the Militia being sent home without victory.

The Militia evolved their Doctrine and successfully defeated the Indians by:
1) Splitting their ranks - turning tribe on tribe and hiring traitors
2) Employing 'total warfare' - destryoing villages, arms supplies, housing, children and elderly

King Philip had his legs and head chopped off, and then his chest was split into four pieces which were hung from trees.

[bykerhd]

My understanding is that germ warfare was employed against the Indians also. Deliberate attempts to start epidemics by trading blankets and other goods to the Indians that had been in contact with victims of smallpox and other diseases were made in some areas.
Copious supplies of liquor, which he Indians could not either resist or tolerate physically, helped to break down the tribal social and leadership structures.

[crcksht]

The idea of successfully containing a virulent air-borne pathogen by using the military to quarantine an area is sheer fantasy in today's modern world of high speed transportation.

With the level of international travel in today's world, very likely dozens if not hundreds of infected people would arrive from south east asia at once. Many of these infected people, perhaps 50% may not even get ill, so they will continue to travel and spread the virus to others. In a perfect world, with the absence of Mr. Murphy, sure we could quarantine every individual who came into contact with an infected person. In the real world, by the time a proper diagnoses was issued, likely there would be dozens if not thousands of people in diverse areas throughout the nation already infected and spreading the contagion. By the time the CDC announced a quarantine and the military moved to enforce it, the pathogen would be fairly well dispersed across the nation. What good is a quarantine going to do after the genii has left the bottle?

Our nation can not even prevent several million people from crossing the Rio Grande river each and every year. What good is an internal quarantine if you can't prevent the spread of disease from Mexico? Over one hundred thousand members of the US military are currently in Iraq and many are charged with preventing infiltration from Syria and Iran. Have the one hundred thousand members of the military been successful in maintaining a "quarantine" against terrorists crossing the Syrian and Iranian borders? What makes you think they can effectively enforce quarantines both within this country and at our borders?

If the military does attempt to enforce quarantines throughout the country, how long are we going to contain these people behind the lines seeing as there is no cure or vaccine? Who is going to deliver food, medicine, fuel and other necessities to those in the quarantined areas, FEMA? :rofl:

I can't tell the future, but I have enough sense to realize a massive quarantine across the country combined with an attempt to close the borders would have a devastating impact on our nation's economy. We would be lucky if the resulting first great depression of this century was over in twenty years. People would still get sick, the disease would still spread and some people would still die.

Your best defence isn't a military enforced quarantine, but simply staying healthy and maintaining your own good immune system.

[danimal]

for all those folks that keep talking about the "tin foil helmet" brigade
and asking "where are those police/troops going to come from?"
I urge you to take a look at American Rifleman Nov. 1993
Ruby Ridge/Randy Weaver
I dont believe in anything he does and I strongly disagree with his politics
but he was just a country boy
look at his weapons... his "arsonal" looks like rejects at the pawnshop
and yet there were several hundred LEOs dispatched to deal with 2 adult males 1 adult female 1 teen boy and 2 teen/preteen girls and an infant
when it was over the 2 male adults were shot and injured the adult female was shot dead (by a sniper from 60 yds and he said it was "mistaken identity") the teen boy was dead (3 hits... in his back) and the FBI sent a robot in to establish communications (here is the irony!) the robot was armed with a short barrelled shot gun, the same type of gun that Randy had been accused of selling to a CI

well in the end Randy was convicted of a failure to appear
the charges of the illegal SBS were dropped as entrampment
and the federal government was found guilty for the deaths of his wife and son

if it wasnt for the news media quite possible no one would have ever heard of this, oh and BTW the LEOs there? you should see if you can cross reference against the roster for waco tx, (another quack I dont support or defend in anyway) there are more than just a "few" matches there

point is it all depends on how much of a nuisence they "think" you will be

no tin foil hats, no jbts, no black helicopters (not even in 'silent mode', I always loved that one)

oh and one other thing before Im labeled a lunatic, Randy Weaver had no history of armed confrontations with law enforcement

[AGC]

Since I'm the one who asked the question, I'll repeat it so you can try to actually answer it: "If things are that grim, where on earth are all these gun-confiscating cops and soldiers going to be coming from?"

The Weaver incident didn't happen in the middle of a massive national disaster. And it tied up a very large part of the Federal law enforcement system for weeks, to the exclusion of anything else.

Maybe they'll do a better job of door-kicking and patriot-rousting than they managed after Hurricane Katrina?

It would take tens of thousands of police and soldiers to impose a cordon around even a single small city, let alone multiple large metropolitan areas or states.

So, where _are_ all of the cops and soldiers going to come from? Maybe the black helicopters will fly them in from the secret underground bases in Antarctica?

[STGThndr]

This plan seems like well-meant stupidity or else an attempt to set up a permanent martial law regime. Either way the likelihood of it working for long are pretty poor but the results will be annoying to those who appreciate their freedoms.
Maybe it's time for Earth to "cull the herd" of the old, the weak, and the pu-er...
Hey wait, that's ME! Yikes!

[Plain George]

The police cant even controll speeding on a Saturday night...how they gonna control real determined people who want to do something different that what their orders are??

[Jez Cruzen]

I don't think it matters where those resources would come from or how many. It doesn't matter because the feds know that quarentining a large area isn't effective. They might be able to block major transportation arteries into and out of a specific area to hinder vehiclular travel and close some airports. Mostly its just show. The real reason is simply putting the pieces in place for future use of the military for domestic law enforcement, IMHO.

Disaster, desease, and terrorist acts have allowed the implementation of practices by this government that simply woiuldn't have been tolerated under "normal" circumstances.

[Papadoc]

I would have to agree to the above, and would like to point out this; Who here honestly believes that the AAV would/will just skip all of these soldiers? I expect that you would/will find that if anyone is placed in a quarantine situation, the guaranteers will be just as bad off as thous in the quarantined area. This virus does not give a fat rats ass what your "affiliation" is, your race, or your social status. If it crosses, most likely scenario will be a "Wildfire" situation, massive & rapid spread of the disease to all population groups without exception.

As for the "gun confiscation thing", I would have to agree with Mark. I will give up my weapons, and be as nice and polite as I can.......for now! :devil:

My .02 worth, as usual YMMV!

Semper Fi

[Plain George]

Hell, the federal govenment cant even hand out ice and water in a timely fashion.

[justashooter]

Originally posted by Plain George
Hell, the federal govenment cant even hand out ice and water in a timely fashion.

the pakistanis do that rather nicely, though (visions of blackhawk down).

[justashooter]

Originally posted by sandsleep
Soooo.....What is the best way to protect agenst infection. And to hold up in an area that everyone else is infected but you may not be yet?

live on a farm, and shoot the first guy who tries to come over the gate.

leave him there.