Imminent Portland Megaquake!?

[URBAN ASSAULT]

Hey y'all,

My Mom is a nurse at a local rehab center, and she was told by someone that the higher-ups in goverment have been told to prepare for a mega earthquake in the Portland, Oregon area that will be at least an 8.0 on the Richter scale, sometime in the next two-to-four weeks.

Geologists in our our area have warned for years that Portland is overdue for a massive quake, and there is a big fault line running right thru the city. How this warning came about was that a medical professional who visits my Mom's facility on a somewhat regular basis, pulled her aside and told her that the USGS had informed them that this huge quake was imminent, and to prepare extra supplies for disaster relief. This person is also a fireman and has a position on the fire board of operations.

He said that many people had been quietly alerted to this, and he wanted to give her a heads up. Mom is not usually a gullible person but she said that this man was earnest and serious in his warning. He advised her to set aside extra food and water, just to be safe. She brought this information to me and I thought I would share it here to see what others think. My gut instinct is that it sounds fishy, but we went over how many supplies she has on hand and what to purchase next. She was rattled by what he told her, enough that she is making a shopping list for essentials to buy today.

It is better to have these items on hand and not need them, than to wish we had the forethought to stock up after a disaster. My problems with what the man told her are this...

1. I have never heard that it was possible to predict an earthquake with that much accuracy. I freely admit to not being a scientist, but if they can be that precise when it comes to time window and severity, why is that devastating quakes still occur without public warning?

2. If all of these hospitals, fire departments, and police are aware of this threat, why hasn't somone quietly informed the news media? I would think that they would be after this like a hound after a hambone?

3. If these thousands of people know about a megaquake, why aren't there thousands of families barreling to the grocery store buying everything in sight and flooding the roads out of town? If only a small percentage of the folks "in the know" told their friends, these friends would be decending like locusts on local grocery stores and doing the same above behavior.

4. If this warning IS legit and the emergency officials don't come forward until the quake does happen... then thousands of people will probably die in the Portland area. If the public ever found out that they could have been warned to leave the area BEFORE the catastrophe, there would be lynchins in the streets. I know that elected officials wouldn't want to create a panic, but wouldn't it be worse to have tall buildings full of unaware people as the ground is heaving?

So again, I think this warning is bull, but then I have to ask why this person would go to my Mom and lie to her about this. This isn't Joe Shmo on the street corner, its a relatively important local professional. He gains absoulutely nothing by creating this scenario for my Mom. He doesn't want to date her, he isn't trying to sell her something, at best they are occasional co-workers. I just can't see what he has to gain from this. Tell me what you think...

[fastfreddy]

Does this have something to do with those huge humps in the ground that have been forming in Oregon? Last I heard, nobody could explain them and didn't know what to make of them. I believed they are descibed as being in the "Five Sisters" or is it "Three Sisters" area. Is that anywhere near Portland?

[TheOtherChris]

Interesting idea.

An Episodic Tremor and Slip event began along the Cascadia subduction zone (Vancouver Island and the Northern Puget Sound) on September 6. An ETS is a 'slow earthquake' that lasts for days. They happen about every 14 months, (which is remarkably regular for any seismic event) and generate a significant increase of stress on the bottom of the currently locked portion of the fault, where great earthquakes are thought to initiate.

What I find interesting is that anyone would send out any kind of alert based on such data. I was unable to find anything to corroborate such an alert. Maybe it will trigger Ranier too.:wink:

[URBAN ASSAULT]

Fastfreddy, the Three Sisters range is located quite a ways to the east of Portland. I did read about the ground swelling in that part of Oregon, but the tone of the article was "Gosh, that's interesting", rather than "Gosh, we're all going to be consumed by lava and ash". The more I think about it the more it seems like this man was, for whatever reason, shoveling her a load of fertilizer. The good thing about this incident is that it got her to seriously consider how to survive a significant disruption in our infrastructure. That's not to imply that a megaquake WON'T hit Portland, it will, sooner or later... but probably not in the next two-three weeks as predicted.

[fastfreddy]

My wife keeps an eye on geological trends. I told her about your account. She told me this was because of the Vancouver, BC subduction zone as reported above by The OtherChris. It seems an offshore island has moved suddenly recently. It is said that this phenomenon is one of the few available indicators that can foreshadow a significant earthquake. Lots of folks who study such things are all atwitter about this. She's got a bunch of links about it.

Is it a sure thing? Nope. Is it a substantially increased risk? It appears so.

[URBAN ASSAULT]

Oh great. I had almost lulled myself into tranquility about this supposed quake, and here you go scaring the crap outta me! Note to self: buy MUCH more beer, just in case of prolonged emergency. The next few weeks just might prove to be interesting here in the state of Oregon.

[jerrymrc]

Originally posted by URBAN ASSAULT
Oh great. I had almost lulled myself into tranquility about this supposed quake, and here you go scaring the crap outta me! Note to self: buy MUCH more beer, just in case of prolonged emergency. The next few weeks just might prove to be interesting here in the state of Oregon.

You should have lived thru the Columbus day storm. We also had a Ice storm in 78-79 that we were without power for 8 days and phone for 20. All the trees were down so you could not go anywhere anyway. We all used to be prepaired
to make it at least a couple of weeks back then. I know that if all the power were to go out right now in the metro area that my parents would be just fine for at least 3 weeks to a month. (they live in tigard)

[URBAN ASSAULT]

I remember that ice storm, the family and I went thru it when we lived in Sandy, Oregon. We had a new home that didn't have wood heat at the time so when the power went out, we went to stay at a friends home that did. I remember three families crowded into a smallish farmhouse, communal meals cooked on a big woodstove, and ice covering EVERYTHING. The pipes froze up and the kids had to collect ice and snow out of the backyard and let it thaw in buckets, for water. I think we stayed with them about a week until things started getting better for us and we could head home. It wasn't a scary time per se, but I recall the weird feeling I had, knowing that we were pretty much on our own and no help was coming. I am much better prepared now.

[jerrymrc]

We had the wood insert at the time that stuck out about a foot from the fireplace. All the goods in the fridg went on the shelf between the window and drapes. Everything in the freezer went out on the deck.

We still canned alot back then so food for the 5 of us was not a issue. We lived on Johnson cr Blvd and there was only one way in or out.

[Talyn]

Fastfreddy, the Three Sisters range is located quite a ways to the east of Portland.

The Three Sisters are not quite aways east of Portland, they are about 100 miles south, southeast of Portland & due west of Bend, OR. Mt. Hood is due east & the Three Sisters are in the center of the Cascade Range (not Three Sisters Range) in Oregon.

There is an uplift of magma causing the bulge centered around Newberry Crater just south of the South Sister. It's more on the west side of the crest but the South Sister is now one foot taller & one foot to the east from it's historic location.

[URBAN ASSAULT]

Hey Talyn, at least I got the fricking state right!;) I am scatter-brained enough it's a major victory just remember to put on clothes before leaving the house! Thank's for the correction though.

[jerrymrc]

Just blame it on the web feet! Still got mine.:rofl:

[ram]

Check here for details on the Episodic Slip. It is interesting, but not an "imminent" indicator.

http://www.pnsn.org/NEWS/PRESS_RELEASES/TREMOR_05.html

[g5]

Interesting link there.

[FALshot]

A few years ago we had a light series of tremmers and I got earth quake insurance on the home, but with a 15K deductable it would hurt me very badly.
I've enough food and water to last me several weeks,..

I hope you're wrong,

Bill Woodward
Portland, OR.

[chrsdwns]

I think that after The Indonesian Quake/Tsunami and Katrina all municipalities are looking at potential disater threats and putting serious plans in place to deal with them. Thats probably where that bit of info began circulating

I doubt any near term predictions for major quakes are available or credable, but it is a 100% certainty that a magnitude 8 or larger will hit the area in the indefinite future. I could just a easily happen 300 years from now as it could tomorrow. But then again, it could just as easily hit tomorrow as 300 years from now.

Based on the historical frequency of big quakes there is about a 0.25-0.50 % chance of a mega quake hitting in any given year going forward in the Pacific Northwest.

LA has much worse odds.

[neonnoodle]

A quake in Portland wouldn't be all that bad.... as long as the disaster zone was contained to N.W. 23rd Ave. :D

[North Force]

Originally posted by URBAN ASSAULT
Oh great. I had almost lulled myself into tranquility about this supposed quake, and here you go scaring the crap outta me! Note to self: buy MUCH more beer, just in case of prolonged emergency. The next few weeks just might prove to be interesting here in the state of Oregon.

Not to worry, the Looter will get your beer and save your day...

http://red-jeep.net/nawlinslooter/albums/The-Looter/image.jpg

[URBAN ASSAULT]

If the balloon goes up we are all going to be on high alert around here, and I think a looter would wish he'd picked an easier target. I'm not trigger-happy by any means, but anyone who wants to take my cerveza is gonna earn it the hard way... every single damn bottle. I sure hope it doesn't come to that, but if it happens we will all do what is needed to protect what is ours... with ruthless economy and precision.

[g5]

The guy in the picture must be world famous by now. Expect to see him on Letterman.

[Sword of Laban]

Personal stockpiles would be a life saver, as soon as wemoved the rubble from where the house use to be to get to it. Most houses in Portland are not up to earth quake standards. I know mine will be rubble in an 6 - 7+. I may move more supplies to the truck.

[John Hardin]

Originally posted by Sword of Laban
Personal stockpiles would be a life saver, as soon as we moved the rubble from where the house use to be to get to it.
Bury some in your yard somewhere.

A septic tank is waterproof, and you can get one-piece plastic models where the access holes are large enough (18") for a person to climb into.

http://www.rotonics.com/tanks/SepticCistern/septic.htm
http://www.premierplastics.com/supertank.htm
etc. ad nauseum

[North Force]

here is a link to the bulge:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/

[TheBigCA]

I remember that ice storm, the family and I went thru it when we lived in Sandy, Oregon.

Different storm dude. Columbus day storm was back in 60's IIRC.

You're talking about 1996??? That was a good one. I was living in Boring at the time. Lots of destruction to the trees and floods all over, it was horrible.

Anywho, not looking forwarding to a quake of that magnitude sitting on the 27th floor of an office building downtown Portland. I got my pack with some essentials in it. I'm bringing a small pack to the office. Perhaps it'll cushion my fall to the earth below.

[JoeLad]

I'd be less worried about the quake and more worried about the tsunami that will folow it. I'm glad I live in a boring part of the country.

JoeLad:D

[jerrymrc]

Originally posted by TheBigCA


Different storm dude. Columbus day storm was back in 60's IIRC.

You're talking about 1996??? That was a good one. I was living in Boring at the time. Lots of destruction to the trees and floods all over, it was horrible.

Anywho, not looking forwarding to a quake of that magnitude sitting on the 27th floor of an office building downtown Portland. I got my pack with some essentials in it. I'm bringing a small pack to the office. Perhaps it'll cushion my fall to the earth below.

Columbus day storm was 63 as I remember and I still can picture it. the ice storm I mentioned was 78-79 and was a doozy.

[Bwana John]

WTF is a "megaquake":?

are there "gigaquakes"?:uhoh:

how about "terraquakes"? yep we got terraquakes!:rofl:

[Eclipse]

re: megaquake

Ever since the BBC did the show on the Yellowstone "Super Volcano" - apparently other natural disasters are now getting the extreme treatment.

[g5]

"A septic tank is waterproof, and you can get one-piece plastic models where the access holes are large enough (18") for a person to climb into."

I kind of hope we're talking about one that's not in use for its intended purpose.

[bykerhd]

"A septic tank is waterproof, and you can get one-piece plastic models where the access holes are large enough (18") for a person to climb into."

18" access holes ?
There are a lot of folks around here that would never, ever fit through an 18" access hole. 24" maybe. 36" would be "roomier" and would allow easy manuevering of necessities like cases of beer, munchies, large TV sets, computers and FALs.

[North Force]

Originally posted by g5
"A septic tank is waterproof, and you can get one-piece plastic models where the access holes are large enough (18") for a person to climb into."

I kind of hope we're talking about one that's not in use for its intended purpose.


What about air?:biggrin:

[John Hardin]

Originally posted by g5
"A septic tank is waterproof, and you can get one-piece plastic models where the access holes are large enough (18") for a person to climb into."

I kind of hope we're talking about one that's not in use for its intended purpose.
That's whar you hide yer rifle when you don't want th' revenoors t' find it...

[g5]

Okay, it's now two weeks later. How imminent is imminent?
Or, any news?

[URBAN ASSAULT]

Well, the only rumble I have felt lately is from the gigantic venison tacos I ate last night. My god, they were delicious!!! I think the warning about an imminent quake was all much ado about nothing. That ISN'T to say that Portland is not due for a really big shake, it is, and it could happen at any time. I am also pleased to say that I am a little better prepared now for whatever happens in the future, than I was before.

[g5]

When I was in school in Portland, many years ago, the building shook a bit with a minor earthquake. It was interesting and memorable. I hope a really big one doesn't occur (outside of gigantic venison tacos).

[Powderfinger]

Originally posted by jerrymrc


Columbus day storm was 63 as I remember and I still can picture it. the ice storm I mentioned was 78-79 and was a doozy.

10-12-62
Typhoon Freda
http://oregonstate.edu/~readw/October1962.html
http://www.cityofportmoody.com/About+Port+Moody/Heritage+and+History/Historical+Insights/Typhoon+Freda.htm

[mpmax]

If the mega-quake liquifies Portland, the ruins will be repopulated by yet another wave of Californians escaping the hell they've created. And as they are doing now create another socialist hell on earth in Oregon.
Now if California is destroyed in a mega-quake first, then we've got something to celebrate.

[g5]

Since I'm likely to be in the area in a couple of weeks this is of more than passing interest.